The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook had a slow start to the season by his lofty standards but has started to turn it on lately. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.70 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – the top mark on the slate – and he’s scored at least 71.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back games.
He’s in an interesting spot today vs. the Jazz, who have the reputation of being one of the best defensive teams in the league. Westbrook’s salary has decreased by $400 in anticipation of this matchup, but the Jazz have not been remotely as good defensively as they were last season. Regardless, Westbrook has had no problem with the Jazz over the past two seasons, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.64 over 14 meetings (per the Trends tool). He offers one of the safest floors and highest ceilings on the slate.
Value
Today’s slate is absolutely loaded with injury value, and the Boston Celtics appear to be one of the top teams to target. Kyrie Irving and Aron Baynes have already been ruled out, while Al Horford and Gordon Hayward are both listed as doubtful. That leaves them extremely shorthanded in an appealing matchup vs. the Pelicans, who currently rank third in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency.
Terry Rozier drew the start in the only game Irving missed this season and tallied 33.7 FanDuel points in 36 minutes. Overall, he’s averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute with all four injured Celtics off the floor, and his $4,100 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
The Pistons are another team missing one of their star players, with Blake Griffin ruled out for rest purposes. That should result in a bigger offensive workload for Reggie Jackson, who has seen a team-high usage bump of +5.8% with Griffin off the floor. He’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Darren Collison has been a solid fantasy asset with Victor Oladipo out of lineup, scoring at least 30.6 FanDuel points in five of his past seven games. That said, he has failed to return value in each of his past two, and his salary has decreased by $300 on FanDuel as a result. He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Wizards, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.79.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Jrue Holiday has been a machine this season, posting a perfect Consistency Rating of 100% through his first 28 contests. He exploded for 55.25 DraftKings points in his most recent game thanks in part to the fact that Anthony Davis was essentially limited to just six shot attempts by a hip injury.
That said, Holiday has actually seen a usage decrease in games without Davis this season, resulting in an average of just 36.31 DraftKings points per game. It’s a small sample size of just four outings, but the Pelicans’ ability to move Julius Randle into the starting lineup means we probably shouldn’t expect a huge increase in workload for Holiday.
Bradley Beal should see a much larger boost in value with John Wall out of the lineup for the Washington Wizards. He increased both his usage rate and assist rate in his first game without Wall this season, resulting in 56.25 DraftKings points. He also played greater than 41 minutes in that contest, which gives him one of the best minute projections on today’s slate. Unfortunately, his matchup vs. the Pacers isn’t much better than Holiday’s: Indiana currently ranks third in defensive efficiency and just 26th in pace.
Value
There are an abundance of value options to choose from at the SG position as well. Austin Rivers will likely draw the start at PG with Wall out of the lineup and scored 27.75 FanDuel points in his first start of the season. His matchup vs. the Hawks then was much easier than his current matchup vs. the Pacers, but he’s priced just $100 over the minimum salary on FanDuel. It’s hard to look past him at that price tag.
Langston Galloway should also see increased minutes today. The Pistons are expected to be without Reggie Bullock in addition to Griffin, while Stanley Johnson is also questionable with a knee injury. Galloway has played at least 30.5 minutes in each of his past two games and is coming off 38.1 FanDuel points in his most recent contest. He’s even cheaper than Rivers on today’s slate, costing the bare minimum on FanDuel and just $3,300 on DraftKings.
Finally, don’t forget about Josh Hart. He’s seen a nice bump in playing time given the injury to Brandon Ingram, playing at least 35.5 minutes in each of his past two games. He scored 36.0 DraftKings points in his last outing, and that was in a difficult matchup vs. the Memphis Grizzlies. He has a much easier one today vs. the Miami Heat.
Fast Break
Marcus Smart may not move into the starting lineup given the Celtics’ current injury situation but should still see a solid bump in value. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.7% with all four injured Celtics off the floor this season and played over 33 minutes in the only other game that Irving missed.
All of the value options could potentially make a guy like Buddy Hield overlooked on today’s slate. That said, he owns one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Chicago Bulls, and the Kings’ implied team total of 114.25 is tied for the fifth-highest mark. He’s underpriced at just $6,100 on FanDuel, evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Small Forward
Studs
Paying up for one of the star SF options is definitely viable today, and it’s even possible to pair two of them together.
The position is headlined by Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has an elite matchup vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency, and the Bucks’ resulting implied team total of 116.5 ranks second on the slate. The only real question is if the Cavs can keep this game close – they’re currently 13-point underdogs – but the fact that the Bucks are on the second leg of a back-to-back should help. He’s been priced up to $11,700 on DraftKings in anticipation of this butter-soft matchup, but his salary still comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
LeBron James wasn’t really needed in the Lakers’ last game, which was a 23-point drubbing of the Grizzlies. He should continue to benefit from the absence of Ingram, with LeBron seeing a team-high usage bump of +2.4% with Ingram off the floor this season. The result is an average of 1.50 FanDuel points per minute, and that figure has increased to 1.59 in full games in which Ingram is out of the lineup. He represents a solid savings from Giannis on FanDuel, which could make him the preferred target.
Last but not least is Kevin Durant. He doesn’t have the same appeal that he did with Steph Curry out of the lineup, but the Warriors’ implied team total of 119.5 is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin. He’s projected for just 9-12% ownership on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which could make him an interesting pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
SF doesn’t seem like a position where you want to go too cheap today, but Otto Porter deserves some consideration on DraftKings. His $6,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.76 over his past 10 games. He also played 42.5 minutes the last time Wall was out of the lineup and has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That’s a really nice combination at his current price tag.
Fast Break
Joel Embiid is currently questionable for today’s matchup vs. the Pistons after missing Sunday’s practice with a migraine. He’s tentatively expected to suit up, but if he were to miss, both Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons would see big boosts in value. Butler has led the team with an +8.9% usage bump with Embiid off the floor this season, while Simmons racked up 52.0 DraftKings points with Embiid out of the lineup in their last game.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis left the Pelicans’ last game early but was ultimately able to return. That said, he was limited to just seven shot attempts and seemed more focused on playing defense than offense. He’s currently questionable for today’s contest, and there’s no guarantee we’ll be getting vintage Davis even if he’s active.
Still, he does have an appealing matchup vs. the Celtics. Davis has tormented the Celtics over the past two seasons, averaging 65.92 DraftKings points and a +11.14 Plus/Minus over three meetings. They also figure to be weaker than usual on the interior with Horford and Baynes out of the lineup. He’s the ultimate GPP play, especially on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Trey Lyles entered the starting lineup for the injured Paul Millsap in their last game and ultimately played 38.5 minutes. He’s averaged a stout 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season, which makes him way too cheap at just $3,700. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, albeit in a tough matchup vs. the Grizzlies.
Fast Break
Marvin Bagley continues to produce when given a chance and has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s in a nice spot vs. the Bulls, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.51, and his $4,700 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Montrezl Harrell and Domantas Sabonis are similar players in the fact that both produce big fantasy points when on the court. Harrell has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Suns, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.45 on FanDuel, while Sabonis should continue to benefit from the absence of Oladipo. Both players are solid values on FanDuel, where each owns a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic is coming off a big game in his last outing and has the potential to take on an even larger workload today. The Nuggets are still without Gary Harris, Will Barton and Millsap, and Jamal Murray is also questionable with a shin injury. Jokic is in a tough spot vs. the Grizzlies, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.76, but his price has decreased in anticipation of the difficult matchup. He’s projected for just 5-8% ownership but has demonstrated as much upside as anyone in basketball this season.
Value
Boban Marjanovic replaced Marcin Gortat in the Clippers’ starting lineup last game and has averaged a ridiculous 1.52 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He doesn’t play many minutes – he’s currently projected for 16 in our NBA Models – but he can do a lot of damage in a short time span, especially in an elite matchup vs. the Suns.
Fast Break
Bam Adebayo continues to represent a nice value with Hassan Whiteside out of the lineup. He’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has played at least 29 minutes in each of his past two games. He’s a particularly strong value on DraftKings, where his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
If Embiid is active, he could be an interesting option. He’s been vocal about his displeasure with his role since the Butler trade, so they could manufacture some additional touches to try and please him. He’s also absolutely dominated Andre Drummond and the Pistons this season, averaging 36 points and 14 rebounds through his first two contests.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Terry Rozier
Photo credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
