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MLB DFS 4/14/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s do this.

Pitchers

Vincent Velasquez, PHI

San Diego has been shut out in four of their five games played outside of Coors Field. Though their projected lineup averages only .213 strikeouts per at-bat, Velasquez’s 10.3 strikeouts per nine (and 10 Pro Trends) is a considerable amount of upside that’s easy plausible. And if that weren’t enough to warrant him a cash option, his exit velocity of 84 mph is only bested by Gerrit Cole (among available pitchers today). With Will Little (Plus/Minus of +1.2) calling the game, Velasquez is as strong an option as any at his position.

Jaime Garcia, STL

Garcia’s SO/9 wains in comparison to those priced higher, but he’s quietly averaged only .401 homeruns per nine over the last 12 months. What he lacks in strikeout upside, he makes up for in surrounding peripherals — a projected opponent wOBA of .255, 10 Pro Trends at FanDuel (Bargain Rating of 87% there), and a hard-hit percentage of only 11% in his first start. Note his moneyline of -190, highest among pitchers today.

Stephen Strasburg, WSH

Take this with a grain of salt since there’s an outside chance Strasburg is yet again scratched for illness. As it stands, however, he’s scheduled to start and remains an elite cash option for the same reasons given yesterday. Projected to allow the fewest runs among pitchers today, Strasburg’s 11 SO/9 trails only Chris Archer (11.2) in this slate.

Pitchers to Exploit

Nathan Eovaldi, TOR

Although a discounted salary of $7,300 at DraftKings, Eovaldi has the unfortunate task of battling a Toronto lineup that recorded the highest ISO against righties last season. Tied for the highest exit velocity allowed in his first start (among pitchers today), note Toronto’s 2-4 hitters — Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion — are all slugging at least .550 vs. RHP over the past year.

Wily Peralta, MIL

The Cardinals might be horrendous against lefties, but they have enough firepower to pounce against right-handed pitching. It doesn’t help that Peralta’s slate-high WHIP of 1.64 essentially means he’s gifting bases at every chance. Projected to score 4.7 runs, St. Louis’ lineup is considered a significant enough stack that, rather than listing them here, we’ll sprinkle the best options throughout the rest of this preview.

C

Evan Gattis, HOU

Though an outfielder at DraftKings, Gattis qualifies as a catcher at FanDuel (where he’s a more valuable play, anyways, given his Bargain Rating of 98%). And since he’s always been strikeout prone, I’m not concerned in the least bit about his most recent 0-for-4 performance. If he’s in the lineup today, note his high slugging percentage of .500 vs. RHP.

Buster Posey, SF

With his team projected to score the most runs (6.1) of the 2016 season to date, Posey is considered an elite tournament option if starting for San Francisco. Note his wOBA and slugging percentages of .382/.531, both top three among catchers.

1B

Brandon Belt, SF

Arguably the top cash option among first basemen in this slate, Belt’s fly-ball percentage of 71% this season leads his position.

Kendrys Morales, KC

Note Morales’ ISO Differential of .131. With a 97% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, he’s considered the cash option at first base if shying away, for whatever reason, from Belt. Morales’ batted-ball distance this season additionally trails only Ryan Howard and Chris Davis at his position.

Matt Adams/Brandon Moss/Stephen Piscotty, STL

Whoever bats cleanup, basically. While Adams’ ISO Differential remains .100 higher than Moss’, the latter’s actual ISO of .206 trumps Adams. Of course, Piscotty has an edge on both given his .490 slugging and, if you choose to believe in such a thing, hot hand as of late:


 

2B

Enrique Hernandez, LAD

Expected to leadoff any time Los Angeles opposes a lefty, basically every single peripheral for Hernandez screams cash. Whether it’s his .509 wOBA, .309 ISO, or .753 slugging vs. LHP, all of it makes him the top option at second base.

3B

Matt Carpenter, STL

Even on a slate in which Nolan Arenado opposes a righty, Carpenter arguably stands atop his position. Slugging .552 vs. RHP, his wOBA Differential of .082 trails only Luis Valbuena (.097) at third base.

SS

Trevor Story, COL

Obviously. Just take a look at his ISO and slugging of .833/1.222 (!) vs. RHP.

Eduardo Nunez, MIN

It’s doubtful he comes close to hitting one out of the park, but look no further than Nunez’s Bargain Rating of 86% at FanDuel if looking to save. Despite an ISO Differential of -0.61, Nunez tends to reach base more when facing righties (as shown by his wOBA Differential of .092). And since he’s not likely to accumulate points for home runs, note his .12 steals per game.

OF

Jose Bautista, TOR

Slugging .571 vs. RHP, Bautista is considered a cog if having exposure towards the aforementioned Blue Jays stack from earlier.

Nomar Mazara, TEX

Set to oppose a righty, I’d be more than happy going back to Mazara given his top-10 batted-ball distance against said handedness (as long as he’s hitting second). Mazara, of course, recorded a .199 ISO against righties in the minors.

Jeremy Hazelbaker, STL

With a Bargain Rating of 97% at FanDuel, Hazelbaker might be the most valuable player in this slate. Expected to bat second for the Cardinals, note his 1.063 slugging and .230 ISO Differential vs. RHP. Those numbers may seem fluky (and could in fact be), but his hard-hit percentage of 50% (top 10 among outfielders) suggests he’s making contact well no matter.

Weather Watch

There’s no rain on the horizon for the fourth consecutive day. Hit it!

 

Two Things I Like Or Don’t Like

Red Stripling

Assuming loads go back given his 20.10 DraftKings points in his first start, it’s worth noting Ross Stripling’s slate-low 5.07 SO/9. He also recorded a bottom-five strike percentage in his first appearance this season. In other words, he’s worth fading if only because of his limited upside.

Batting Eighth for the Giants: Home Run

If filling in for Posey again, forget Brown’s recent splits vs. LHP pitching. Our models show a miserable slugging percentage of 0.83, sure, but he’s made only 15 career plate appearances against lefties (dating back to last season). His slugging and ISO were notably much higher against LHP in the minors.

Good luck!

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Let’s do this.

Pitchers

Vincent Velasquez, PHI

San Diego has been shut out in four of their five games played outside of Coors Field. Though their projected lineup averages only .213 strikeouts per at-bat, Velasquez’s 10.3 strikeouts per nine (and 10 Pro Trends) is a considerable amount of upside that’s easy plausible. And if that weren’t enough to warrant him a cash option, his exit velocity of 84 mph is only bested by Gerrit Cole (among available pitchers today). With Will Little (Plus/Minus of +1.2) calling the game, Velasquez is as strong an option as any at his position.

Jaime Garcia, STL

Garcia’s SO/9 wains in comparison to those priced higher, but he’s quietly averaged only .401 homeruns per nine over the last 12 months. What he lacks in strikeout upside, he makes up for in surrounding peripherals — a projected opponent wOBA of .255, 10 Pro Trends at FanDuel (Bargain Rating of 87% there), and a hard-hit percentage of only 11% in his first start. Note his moneyline of -190, highest among pitchers today.

Stephen Strasburg, WSH

Take this with a grain of salt since there’s an outside chance Strasburg is yet again scratched for illness. As it stands, however, he’s scheduled to start and remains an elite cash option for the same reasons given yesterday. Projected to allow the fewest runs among pitchers today, Strasburg’s 11 SO/9 trails only Chris Archer (11.2) in this slate.

Pitchers to Exploit

Nathan Eovaldi, TOR

Although a discounted salary of $7,300 at DraftKings, Eovaldi has the unfortunate task of battling a Toronto lineup that recorded the highest ISO against righties last season. Tied for the highest exit velocity allowed in his first start (among pitchers today), note Toronto’s 2-4 hitters — Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion — are all slugging at least .550 vs. RHP over the past year.

Wily Peralta, MIL

The Cardinals might be horrendous against lefties, but they have enough firepower to pounce against right-handed pitching. It doesn’t help that Peralta’s slate-high WHIP of 1.64 essentially means he’s gifting bases at every chance. Projected to score 4.7 runs, St. Louis’ lineup is considered a significant enough stack that, rather than listing them here, we’ll sprinkle the best options throughout the rest of this preview.

C

Evan Gattis, HOU

Though an outfielder at DraftKings, Gattis qualifies as a catcher at FanDuel (where he’s a more valuable play, anyways, given his Bargain Rating of 98%). And since he’s always been strikeout prone, I’m not concerned in the least bit about his most recent 0-for-4 performance. If he’s in the lineup today, note his high slugging percentage of .500 vs. RHP.

Buster Posey, SF

With his team projected to score the most runs (6.1) of the 2016 season to date, Posey is considered an elite tournament option if starting for San Francisco. Note his wOBA and slugging percentages of .382/.531, both top three among catchers.

1B

Brandon Belt, SF

Arguably the top cash option among first basemen in this slate, Belt’s fly-ball percentage of 71% this season leads his position.

Kendrys Morales, KC

Note Morales’ ISO Differential of .131. With a 97% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, he’s considered the cash option at first base if shying away, for whatever reason, from Belt. Morales’ batted-ball distance this season additionally trails only Ryan Howard and Chris Davis at his position.

Matt Adams/Brandon Moss/Stephen Piscotty, STL

Whoever bats cleanup, basically. While Adams’ ISO Differential remains .100 higher than Moss’, the latter’s actual ISO of .206 trumps Adams. Of course, Piscotty has an edge on both given his .490 slugging and, if you choose to believe in such a thing, hot hand as of late:


 

2B

Enrique Hernandez, LAD

Expected to leadoff any time Los Angeles opposes a lefty, basically every single peripheral for Hernandez screams cash. Whether it’s his .509 wOBA, .309 ISO, or .753 slugging vs. LHP, all of it makes him the top option at second base.

3B

Matt Carpenter, STL

Even on a slate in which Nolan Arenado opposes a righty, Carpenter arguably stands atop his position. Slugging .552 vs. RHP, his wOBA Differential of .082 trails only Luis Valbuena (.097) at third base.

SS

Trevor Story, COL

Obviously. Just take a look at his ISO and slugging of .833/1.222 (!) vs. RHP.

Eduardo Nunez, MIN

It’s doubtful he comes close to hitting one out of the park, but look no further than Nunez’s Bargain Rating of 86% at FanDuel if looking to save. Despite an ISO Differential of -0.61, Nunez tends to reach base more when facing righties (as shown by his wOBA Differential of .092). And since he’s not likely to accumulate points for home runs, note his .12 steals per game.

OF

Jose Bautista, TOR

Slugging .571 vs. RHP, Bautista is considered a cog if having exposure towards the aforementioned Blue Jays stack from earlier.

Nomar Mazara, TEX

Set to oppose a righty, I’d be more than happy going back to Mazara given his top-10 batted-ball distance against said handedness (as long as he’s hitting second). Mazara, of course, recorded a .199 ISO against righties in the minors.

Jeremy Hazelbaker, STL

With a Bargain Rating of 97% at FanDuel, Hazelbaker might be the most valuable player in this slate. Expected to bat second for the Cardinals, note his 1.063 slugging and .230 ISO Differential vs. RHP. Those numbers may seem fluky (and could in fact be), but his hard-hit percentage of 50% (top 10 among outfielders) suggests he’s making contact well no matter.

Weather Watch

There’s no rain on the horizon for the fourth consecutive day. Hit it!

 

Two Things I Like Or Don’t Like

Red Stripling

Assuming loads go back given his 20.10 DraftKings points in his first start, it’s worth noting Ross Stripling’s slate-low 5.07 SO/9. He also recorded a bottom-five strike percentage in his first appearance this season. In other words, he’s worth fading if only because of his limited upside.

Batting Eighth for the Giants: Home Run

If filling in for Posey again, forget Brown’s recent splits vs. LHP pitching. Our models show a miserable slugging percentage of 0.83, sure, but he’s made only 15 career plate appearances against lefties (dating back to last season). His slugging and ISO were notably much higher against LHP in the minors.

Good luck!

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No related posts.