The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
This is a pretty uninspiring slate at the top of the PG position, but Damian Lillard is one player who deserves some attention on FanDuel. He has an excellent matchup vs. the Spurs, who have struggled mightily on the defensive end this season. They currently rank just 27th in defensive efficiency – which is basically unheard of for the Spurs – and Lillard owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.72. He’s also projected for a position-high 37 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 1.22 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Value
Shai-Gilgeous Alexander grabbed the starting PG job for the Clippers in their 10th game and hasn’t looked back. He’s been a nice fantasy asset over his past 10 games, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.97 on DraftKings, and he’s increased his fantasy output to 0.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
He’s in a decent spot today vs. the Mavericks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.22. The Clippers’ implied team total of 114.5 is also the top mark on the slate.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio has seen a solid price decrease recently, with his salary dropping by $900 on DraftKings over the past week. He has a strong matchup vs. the Heat, who have played at the 10th-fastest pace this season. He also owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.75, which is one of the highest marks at the position.
Mike Conley has been tremendous recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +10.03 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s been priced up quite a bit as a result – his current $8,500 salary is his highest of the season – but it still comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s also in an excellent spot vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, who have played at one of the fastest paces in the league this season. Memphis leads the slate with a pace differential (paceD) of +7.2, and Conley owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.41. He could be worth some exposure in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) despite the elevated price tag.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Donovan Mitchell has posted a positive Plus/Minus in both games since returning from injury but remains affordable at just $7,900 on FanDuel. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.08 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his current salary comes with a 75% Bargain Rating of FanDuel. He’s in a decent spot vs. the Jazz, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.04.
Value
There are a few different options you can go with at the SG position if you want to target the Clippers. Avery Bradley might be the safest cash-game option of the bunch, especially on FanDuel at the absolute minimum. He’s played at least 31.5 minutes in four of his past five games, and he’s scored at least 23.8 fantasy points in three of those contests. Historically, players with a comparable minutes projection and salary have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.41 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Lou Williams is the more volatile option for GPPs. He doesn’t see nearly the same workload as Bradley but is much more productive when on the court, averaging 1.11 DraftKings points per minute this season. He leads the team in usage rate and assist rate, so he’s capable of racking up fantasy points quickly.
Fast Break
Dwyane Wade has a difficult matchup today vs. the slow-paced Jazz but should continue to benefit from the absences of Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson. He’s seen a usage bump of +1.6% with both players off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.15 DraftKings points per minute. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games on DraftKings.
DeMar DeRozan has posted a negative Plus/Minus in eight of his past 10 games on FanDuel but still owns the highest ceiling projection at the position by a considerable margin. His poor production will likely result in lower ownership than usual, which makes him interesting in GPPs.
Small Forward
Stud
Ben Simmons has SF eligibility on DraftKings, which definitely increases his appeal on today’s slate. The SF position is normally one of the strongest in basketball – it features guys like Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James and Kevin Durant – but today’s slate is pretty barren.
Simmons is in an extreme pace-down spot vs. the Grizzlies, but it’s still a decent matchup: He owns an opponent Plus/Minus +2.29 on DraftKings. His average of 1.28 DraftKings points per minute is the top mark at the position by a considerable margin, and his $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
Jae Crowder is coming off 33 minutes in his last game and has averaged 0.83 FanDuel points per minute this season. That’s an appealing combination at just $4,500, especially considering his matchup vs. the Heat.
Fast Break
Rudy Gay has seen a price decrease of $700 over the past 10 games on FanDuel, which makes him a nice buy-low candidate. He’s not playing as many minutes as he was early in the season, but he is projected for 27 on today’s slate. He’s averaged 1.03 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so that should be enough playing time for him to potentially return value on his $5,800 salary.
Luka Doncic is currently questionable for today’s game vs. the Clippers, and his absence would give Harrison Barnes a nice bump in value. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +9.5% with Doncic off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.06 DraftKings points per minute.
Power Forward
Stud
The Spurs have played in a few blowouts recently, which has resulted in a nice salary decrease for LaMarcus Aldridge on today’s slate. He’s priced at just $8,000 on FanDuel, and he’s gone for at least 41.2 FanDuel points in three of his past six games. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.99 vs. the Portland Trail Blazers in a #RevengeGame. Aldridge enjoyed beating up on his former mates last season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.85 over three meetings.
Value
The big man rotation for the Miami Heat varies on basically a night-to-night basis, but Kelly Olynyk appears to be in good standing at the moment. Either way, he’s dirt cheap at $3,700 on FanDuel and has averaged 0.92 fantasy points per minute this season. He’s currently projected for 20.5 minutes, and he doesn’t need to play much more than that to potentially return value.
Fast Break
Jaren Jackson Jr. is a favorite of the Action Network staff, and it’s easy to see why. He put his immense skill set on display in his most recent game, scoring 47.6 FanDuel points vs. the Brooklyn Nets. He’s averaged 1.12 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.24 vs. the 76ers.
Tobias Harris leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel and has posted a Consistency Rating of 90% over the past month. He’s always a strong option for cash games.
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Center
Stud
Center seems like the position to pay up at on today’s slate. Joel Embiid is the top stud on the slate by a considerable margin: He leads all players in median, ceiling and floor projections. He’s been overshadowed at times by guys like Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis, but Embiid has averaged an elite 1.55 FanDuel points per minute this season. He has a difficult matchup vs. the Grizzlies, who rank last in pace and fifth in defensive efficiency, but Embiid is basically matchup-proof at this point.
Value
Bam Adebayo has cut into Hassan Whiteside’s role recently, playing at least 26 minutes in three of his past four games. He’s averaged 1.15 FanDuel points per minute over the past month but remains affordable at $4,600.
Fast Break
It seems like virtually the entire Mavs roster is questionable today, which could make DeAndre Jordan an interesting option. He has the potential to see more minutes if Dwight Powell and/or Maxi Kleber are unable to suit up, and he could see a boost in usage rate without Doncic or Dennis Smith Jr. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: DeAndre Jordan
Photo credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
