The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a six-game main slate starting at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kemba Walker has been fantastic this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.54 on FanDuel. He’s currently averaging a career-high in points per game, usage rate, and 3-point attempts per game, culminating in an average of 1.29 FanDuel points per minute. No one at the position has averaged more fantasy points per minute, and no one is projected for more minutes on today’s slate. That’s a nice combination for fantasy purposes.
He’s in an elite spot today vs. the Atlanta Hawks, who currently rank first in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency. The Hornets’ implied team total of 119.25 is the top mark on the slate by a considerable margin. Walker also has an elite individual matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.56 on FanDuel. He’s one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $9,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Spencer Dinwiddie has been an excellent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.71 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of Caris LeVert‘s absence, seeing a team-high usage bump of +2.8%.
He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, who have played at the seventh-fastest pace this season. In total, he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.21 on DraftKings, where his $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio is in one of the most interesting spots of the day. He has an excellent matchup vs. the Sacramento Kings, who have played at the second-fastest pace in the league this season, and the Jazz will also be without star SG Donovan Mitchell. Rubio has seen the largest usage bump on the team with Mitchell off the floor this season and has averaged 1.05 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He has big upside.
Damian Lillard looks like a nice value on FanDuel, where his $9,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends, and the Blazers’ implied team total of 115.75 ranks second on the slate.
Shooting Guard
Stud
D’Angelo Russell has failed to return value in each of his past two games but is in a nice spot today vs. the 76ers. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.66 on FanDuel, which is the top mark at the position. He doesn’t typically play a ton of minutes — he’s currently projected for just 28.5 — but has made up for it by averaging 1.16 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s priced at a bit of a discount at $7,400, evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Value
Alec Burks is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, which makes him almost impossible to fade vs. the Kings. He’s one of the top candidates to replace Mitchell in the starting lineup and has averaged a respectable 0.84 FanDuel points per minute this season. Players with comparable salaries, per-minute averages and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.10 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Tim Hardaway Jr. has a difficult matchup today vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, who rank last in pace and third in defensive efficiency this season. That said, he’s priced at just $6,600 on DraftKings, which seems too cheap given his potential upside. He’s gone for at least 45.5 DraftKings points in three of his past five games and has averaged 1.05 fantasy points per minute this season.
Buddy Hield has seen a slight reduction in playing time with the return of Bogdan Bogdanovic, but he’s made up for it by increasing his fantasy production to 1.11 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s seen a price decrease of $1,500 over his past eight games, which could make him an interesting buy low target on today’s slate.
Small Forward
Stud
Ben Simmons has SF eligibility on DraftKings, where he is a significantly better value today: His $9,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. Jimmy Butler is currently questionable for today’s slate, and his absence would undoubtedly benefit Simmons. He’s played only eight minutes with Butler off the floor since he joined the team, but Simmons has posted a usage rate of 41.5% and averaged 2.28 DraftKings points per minute in that small sample.
Those numbers are obviously unsustainable, but it makes sense that Simmons would take on more offensive responsibilities with Butler out of the lineup. Today’s slate is largely devoid of superstars, which would make him intriguing if Philly is shorthanded.
Value
Joe Ingles has seen a pretty significant price decrease over the past month on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which makes him a nice target today vs. the Kings. He’s averaged 0.81 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s projected for a position-high 37.0 minutes in our NBA Models.
Fast Break
Kyle Anderson has been a strong value over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.05 on DraftKings. He’s played all the minutes he can handle, seeing at least 38.5 in each of his past two contests. He’s in a great spot today vs. the Knicks, who rank 28th in defensive efficiency.
Royce O’Neal could be another value option worth considering for the Jazz. He hasn’t really crushed this season, averaging just 0.62 DraftKings points per minute, but he’s priced at just $3,300 and projected for 27.5 minutes.
Power Forward
Stud
It’s weird to see Montrezl Harrell priced at $8,300 on FanDuel, but the elevated price tag is warranted based on his recent play. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.48 over his past 10 games, thanks in part to an average of 1.34 FanDuel points per minute. He’s always been a good per-minute producer but has seen a nice spike in playing time of late: He’s played at least 31 minutes in five of his past seven games. Harrell is in a decent spot today vs. the Portland Trail Blazers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.05.
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Value
Marvin Bagley is finally seeing significant minutes for the Kings and is coming off a season-high 33.5 minutes yesterday vs. the Golden State Warriors. He’s almost undoubtedly underpriced at $4,700 if he’s going to play that much given his average of 1.05 fantasy points per minute this season. He’s in a scary spot vs. the Utah Jazz, but they’ve been much weaker on the defensive end of the court this year.
Fast Break
The Grizzlies played a tight frontcourt rotation in their last game, with Marc Gasol, Jaren Jackson Jr., and JaMychal Green absorbing all of the minutes. Green in particular played a season-high 33.5 minutes, which makes him a nice potential value at $4,200. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need to play much to pay off at $4,200.
John Collins has posted a negative Plus/Minus in three of his first four games on FanDuel, but there are some encouraging signs for his fantasy prospects moving forward. He’s coming off 30 minutes in his last game, and Collins has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.32 with a comparable minute projection and salary on FanDuel. A big performance in the near future seems likely.
Center
Stud
There are lots of value options available today, which should make Joel Embiid a popular option to pay up for. He’s been excellent this season, averaging 1.58 DraftKings points per minute, and he could see an increased role if Butler is unable to suit up. He also has an excellent matchup vs. the Brooklyn Nets, who have given up their fair share of monster games to opposing centers.
Embiid managed just 41.75 DraftKings points in his first meeting vs. the Nets this year, but he was limited to just eight shot attempts after racking up five personal fouls. He’s tough to avoid on DraftKings, where his $10,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
Dewayne Dedmon remains underpriced as the starting center for the Atlanta Hawks. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute this season and has posted a positive Plus/minus in each of his past five games.
Fast Break
Willie Cauley-Stein was limited to just 20 minutes in his past game against the Warriors, but he should return to his normal workload today vs. the Jazz. They’ve struggled against opposing centers this season, giving WCS an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.07 on DraftKings. He’s priced at a discount at just $6,000 given his average of 1.12 DraftKings points per minute.
On the other side of the same matchup, Rudy Gobert could be an interesting target. He’s averaged 1.23 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is in one of the top pace-up spots of the day. He’s projected for just 5-8% ownership on FanDuel, which increases his appeal for GPPs.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Ricky Rubio
Photo credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
