The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 12-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook hasn’t exactly dominated recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.48 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. That said, this could be a nice time to buy low on him. He’s still averaged 1.60 fantasy points per minute over the past month, which is the second-highest mark on Friday’s slate, and his salary has decreased by $1,500 over the past month.
Westbrook is priced at $11,000 for this matchup against the Hornets, and has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.43 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
Kyrie Irving has one of the best matchups of the day against the Hawks. They currently rank first in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency, and the Celtics’ implied team total of 114.0 represents a significant increase when compared to their season average (106.0). Irving also has an elite individual matchup against Trae Young, who ranks dead last among qualifiers in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) at PG.
Irving has averaged an elite 1.39 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Value
Trey Burke has been phenomenal for the Knicks over his past four games, averaging 25.8 points, 4.3 assists and 3.3 rebounds. He’s scored at least 27.75 DraftKings points in each of those contests, including 59.0 in his last game, but he remains affordable at $4,400. He’s in a great spot against the Pelicans, who rank third in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.07 on DraftKings, which is one of the top marks at the position.
Fast Break
Lonzo Ball is coming off 36 minutes in his last game, which represented a new season-high. He’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he seems underpriced at $5,100 if he’s going to continue to see that much playing time.
Ryan Arcidiacono is priced at $3,700 on DraftKings but has played at least 29 minutes in seven straight games. He has one of the best matchups of the day against the Heat as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.41.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden and the Rockets got off to a slow start this season but have appeared to turn things around recently. They’ve won five straight games, and Harden has unsurprisingly posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of them. He’s coming off his best game of the season, scoring 72.25 DraftKings points in a little less than 36.5 minutes against the Pistons.
Harden will face the Pistons again on Friday, although this contest will be played in Detroit instead of Houston. Harden has historically averaged three fewer fantasy points per game when playing on the road, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of just +0.14. That said, Harden remains cheap (by his standards) at $10,700 on DraftKings, and he’s already shown his ability to go off in this matchup.
Harden is projected for just 5-8% ownership, which could make him an interesting target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Jrue Holiday continues to return value every single time he touches the court, owning a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s been particularly impressive over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.10 on DraftKings. His price has only increased by $300 over that span, which makes him an awesome target on Friday in an elite matchup against the Knicks. They rank 29th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Pelicans’ implied team total of 122.0 points is the top mark on the slate.
Value
The Heat will be without both Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson on Friday, which leaves them pretty shorthanded in the backcourt. Rodney McGruder has seen a usage bump of +3.1% with both players off the court this season, so he figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s currently projected for 36.5 minutes of playing time in our NBA Models and has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.49 on FanDuel when projected for at least 34 minutes. He’s priced at $4,900 and has an excellent matchup against the Bulls: They rank just 23rd in defensive efficiency this season.
Fast Break
Devin Booker remains priced at a discount on FanDuel, where his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s in a tough spot against the Bucks — the Suns are listed as 13-point underdogs as of writing (see live odds here) — but Booker has big upside if this game stays competitive.
The Warriors have looked like a shell of themselves offensively with Stephen Curry out of the lineup, but Klay Thompson has seen a slight bump in fantasy value. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.3% with Curry off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.01 FanDuel points per minute. He score the ball in bunches when given the opportunity, which always puts him in play for GPPs.
Small Forward
Studs
The SF position features a trio of heavy-hitters at the top: Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James and Kevin Durant.
Giannis is in an intriguing spot against the Suns. On one hand, he’s been the best per-minute producer in the league this season, averaging 1.64 FanDuel points per minute, and the Suns rank dead last in terms of defensive efficiency. The Bucks’ implied team total of 121.25 ranks second on the slate, and Giannis has only played in one game with an implied team total above 121 points in his entire career. He unsurprisingly smashed in that contest, posting a Plus/Minus of +6.79.
Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo
On the other hand, the Bucks are massive 13-point favorites, and paying up for superstars in potential blowout spots has historically been -EV. Players with comparable price tags have averaged a Plus/Minus of -0.74 and posted a Consistency Rating of just 44.1%, which are both well below the baseline marks. Giannis has upside for GPPs but is too tough to trust for cash games.
LeBron is expected to command the lowest ownership of the trio, which is not surprising considering his matchup against the Jazz. The Lakers’ implied team total of 111.0 points is merely tied for ninth on the slate. That said, Utah has fallen off tremendously on the defensive end this season and currently ranks 19th in defensive efficiency. LeBron has also picked up his play of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four contests and cracking the 70-point threshold in two of them. He could be an interesting contrarian target.
The Warriors have lost four straight games with Curry out of the lineup, and their offense has averaged a pitiful 95.5 points per game over that time frame. Still, it’s hard not to like Durant at his current price tag across the industry. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +5.4% with Curry off the floor this season, and his salary has decreased by $1,300 on FanDuel since Curry was first injured. This seems like an ideal spot to buy low on one of the best players in basketball.
Value
Cedi Osman is coming off a whopping 42.5 minutes of playing time in his most recent contest and is priced at $4,300 on DraftKings. He hasn’t been great on a per-minute basis this season, averaging just 0.75 DraftKings points per minute, but he doesn’t need to be if he’s going to continue to see that much playing time. He’s in a nice spot against the 76ers, who have played at the sixth-fastest pace.
Fast Break
The Jazz are in one of the top pace-up spots of the day against the Lakers, which could make Joe Ingles an intriguing target on DraftKings. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -2.58 over his past 10 games, but his salary has decreased by $1,500 over that span. He’s a nice potential value at $5,200 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 86%.
Paul George leads all SFs with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel and has seen a massive price decrease since Westbrook has returned to the lineup. Historically, SFs with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salary have posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.25 on FanDuel, and he’s priced at a discount compared to the top SF options on the slate.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is capable of dominating a basketball game in so many different ways. He was limited to just 12 points in his last contest, which would normally be a death sentence for someone with a $12,200 price tag on FanDuel. However, he was still able to post a positive Plus/Minus thanks to 16 rebounds, six assists, five steals and five blocks, and his ability to pile up peripherals is a big reason why he’s averaged 1.59 FanDuel points per minute this season.
He’s in a much friendlier spot against the Knicks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.55. He crushed the Knicks in their first meeting this season, scoring 74.9 FanDuel points on the back of 43 points. No one on the slate is projected for more than his 39 minutes, which gives him one of the safest floors and highest ceilings across the industry.
Value
John Collins was unable to return value in his last game, but the fact that he played more than 26.5 minutes in encouraging for his fantasy prospects moving forward. He’s capable of averaging well more than one fantasy point per minute, which makes him a nice target at $5,100 on FanDuel. He has a difficult matchup against the Celtics, but they will be without center Al Horford on Friday.
Fast Break
Noah Vonleh has started each of the past two games for the Knicks, but who knows what head coach David Fizdale is thinking for Friday’s lineup. Regardless, Vonleh should see a healthy amount of playing time and has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He seems particularly underpriced on DraftKings, where his $4,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Jabari Parker exploded in his last game, going for 52.25 DraftKings points in 39.5 minutes of playing time. That said, his price actually decreased by $200 on DraftKings for Friday’s matchup against the Heat, giving him a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid is priced very fairly on DraftKings at $10,600. It represents a decrease of more than $1,000 over his past 10 games, and his current price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s in an excellent spot against the Cavaliers — the 76ers’ implied team total of 116.0 ranks fifth on the slate — but this game could easily turn into a blowout.
Value
Dewayne Dedmon seems locked in as the Hawks’ starting center at the moment. He played 31 minutes in their most recent contest and has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season. That makes him one of the better values of the day on DraftKings, where his $4,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
DeAndre Ayton could be an interesting target. He leads all centers in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is coming off one of his best games of the season in his last outing. He has a difficult matchup against the Bucks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.82, but he seems underpriced given his averaged of 1.12 fantasy points per minute.
The injury situation for the Pacers could be an important one to monitor. Victor Oladipo has already been ruled out, while both Myles Turner and Domantas Saboins are listed as questionable as of writing. If neither of their big men are able to suit up, Kyle O’Quinn could potentially see a healthy amount of playing time and move into the starting lineup. He’s a capable fantasy producer when given a chance — he’s averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute this season — and is priced at or near the minimum across the industry.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Kevin Durant
Photo credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
