The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 13-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Wednesday’s slate is massive, which means there are tons of options available at virtually every position. Point guard is no exception, but Kyle Lowry stands out as the top option on DraftKings, where his $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He owns an elite matchup against the Hawks, who rank first in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency. The Raptors’ implied team total of 116 points ranks third on the slate, and Lowry owns an elite individual matchup against Trae Young, who ranks dead last among 90 qualifiers in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) at the PG position.
The Raptors are also expected to be without Kawhi Leonard on the second leg of a back-to-back, which obviously bodes well for Lowry’s fantasy prospects. Lowry has seen a team-high usage bump of +4.6% with Leonard off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.35 DraftKings points per minute.
Lowry is also in discussion for the top PG spot on FanDuel, but it’s hard to look past Kemba Walker at $9,300. Walker has been a fantasy monster, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.52 on FanDuel. He’s also scored 103 actual points over his past two games. His usage rate of 32.3% ranks sixth in the league, and he leads all players at the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Value
Fred VanVleet could be another interesting target for the Raptors. Both CJ Miles and OG Anunoby are listed as questionable, and VanVleet entered the starting lineup and scored 33.8 FanDuel points the last time Leonard, Miles and Anunoby were out. He’s really affordable at $4,500, which comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
De’Aaron Fox has averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.45 on DraftKings over his past 10 games and has been priced down to $6,400 in advance of a tough matchup against the Jazz. That said, he’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute and is projected for 33.8 minutes in our NBA Models, and that combination of playing time and production would make him one of the better value of the day.
Eric Bledsoe has been dominant recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.87 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. The Bucks’ implied team total of 115.75 ranks fourth on the slate, and they’re in an interesting spot against a Blazers’ team playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.
If you’re looking for a punt at the position, Ryan Arcidiacono could be your guy. He’s played at least 29 minutes in six straight games and owns a nice matchup against the Suns.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden had a rough start to his season but has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games. That said, Wednesday’s game against the Pistons is not ideal from a fantasy perspective: They rank ninth in defensive efficiency this season, and the Rockets’ implied team total of 112.25 ranks just eighth on the slate. Harden could still be worth some consideration for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) — he’s projected for just 5-8% ownership on FanDuel — but there are better options for cash games.
One of those options could be Jrue Holiday, who has posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month on DraftKings. The Pelicans are facing the 76ers, which should be one of the best games of the day from a fantasy perspective: The 236.5 total is at least 10 points higher than every other game on the slate. Holiday owns an excellent Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.37 on DraftKings, where he owns a Bargain rating of 93%.
Value
Justin Holiday is playing a ton of minutes for the Bulls right now. He’s currently projected for 36.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and the sheer volume of minutes has helped him overcome a pedestrian average of 0.71 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.23 over his past 10 games and owns a nice matchup against the Suns, who rank just 29th in defensive efficiency this season. He looks like a nice value option on DraftKings, where his $4,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
Devin Booker looks like one of the best values of the day on FanDuel. He’s priced at $7,900, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s in a nice spot against the Bulls: They rank just 24th in defensive efficiency.
Danny Green could be worth some consideration if the Raptors are shorthanded. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games on FanDuel and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.99 vs. the Hawks.
Small Forward
Studs
The SF position features three of the best players in the game in LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant.
LeBron has had a rough start to his Lakers career from a fantasy perspective, but has started to turn things around. He’s gone for at least 72.1 FanDuel points in two of his past three games, but his salary has still decreased by $300 over that span.
This is also his first game in Cleveland after leaving (again), so he could be extra motivated to put up a good performance. The Cavaliers rank 28th in defensive efficiency this season, so LeBron could be in line for a massive game.
LeBron isn’t the only stud SF with a #RevengeGame on Wednesday night. Durant will be taking on the Thunder, and his relationship with some of his former teammates has been heated since joining the Warriors:
This game won’t be played in Oklahoma City, so the environment won’t be nearly as hostile, but this should still be an intense regular-season game.
The Warriors are still without Stephen Curry, which should give Durant a bump for fantasy purposes. Hurant has increased his usage rate by +5.7% with Curry off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.39 DraftKings points per minute.
That said, the Warriors offense has been putrid with Curry out of the lineup, averaging 95.6 points per game over their past three contests. Even though Durant could be getting a larger share of the offensive pie, the fact that they’re scoring much fewer points per game has actually hurt him recently: He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -7.20 in six games without Curry this season.
The Warriors’ implied team total of 111.75 ranks just ninth on the slate, so Durant is far from a lock in DFS.
Meanwhile Giannis has been arguably the best player in fantasy this season, averaging 1.60 FanDuel points per minute, but his numbers have been limited by a string of blowouts over his past 10 games. That shouldn’t be a problem against the Blazers, who are only 6.5-point underdogs on the road in Milwaukee. Portland is one of the few teams that has been able to contain Giannis this season – the Blazers limited him to 36.8 FanDuel points in 37 minutes in their first meeting – but it’s hard to envision a scenario where that happens again.
Value
Joe Ingles has seen a price decrease of $1,400 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, which could make him an appealing buy low target. He’s in an elite spot against the Kings, who have played at the second-fastest pace in the league this season. It results in a pace differential (paceD) of +6.5, which is the top mark on the slate.
Fast Break
TJ Warren continues to see a tremendous amount of minutes for the Suns, playing at least 36.5 in each of his past six contests. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all six of them and is currently projected for 39 minutes in a great matchup against the Bulls. He’s averaged a little fewer than 1.00 FanDuel points per minute this season, which makes him a bargain at $7,000.
Nikola Mirotic could be an interesting buy low target on DraftKings. He’s priced at $6,900, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93%, and has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute this season. This spot against Philly could be a good one for him to bounce back.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis disappointed in his most recent contest, but for one reason or another he has not been able to find success against the Spurs over the past few seasons. He should have nearly the same difficulties against the 76ers as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.79. He’s a particularly strong value on DraftKings, where his $11,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%, and only Warren is projected for more than his 38 minutes on today’s slate.
Pictured: New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23), Photo Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
There are a lot of studs to choose from, but Davis should be near the top of the list.
Value
John Collins will draw his first start of the season against the Raptors, who are currently dealing with a few injuries. He was a promising player last season and has averaged 1.38 FanDuel points per minute through his first two games this season, which makes him an interesting target at $5,100. He’s expected to improve on his 20.5 minutes in his last game, albeit in a difficult matchup.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam has been a revelation for the Raptors and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.89 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He should continue to play big minutes regardless of the status of Miles and Anunoby and has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute with Leonard off the floor this season. He’s also in a great spot against the Hawks as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.84.
Domantas Sabonis has gone for more than 40 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is in another nice spot against the Hornets. Victor Oladipo will miss his second consecutive game with a knee injury, and Sabonis has averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute with Oladipo off the floor this season.
Center
Studs
Joel Embiid has been overshadowed by guys like Giannis and Davis this season but has been just as good from a fantasy perspective. Embiid has averaged 1.53 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, yet his $11,200 salary makes him cheaper than Davis by $1,000.
The 76ers are arguably in the best spot of the day against the Pelicans, who rank third in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency this season, and their implied team total of 120.25 is the top mark on the slate by a margin of four points.
Karl-Anthony Towns could be a bit overlooked on Wednesday given the sheer volume of available studs: He’s currently projected for just 5-8% ownership on DraftKings and 2-4% ownership on FanDuel. That said, he’s one of the best values on DraftKings, where his $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s been phenomenal since Jimmy Butler left for Philly and has averaged 46.0 DraftKings points in seven games with Butler out of the lineup this season.
Value
Alex Len is currently probable for Wednesday’s game against the Raptors, but Dewayne Dedmon has already been announced as the starter. That could make him an appealing punt play given his average of 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s currently projected for 26.2 minutes in our NBA Models, which should be more than enough for him to pay off his $4,200 salary on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Nikola Jokic should command minimal ownership on Wednesday’s slate, especially after posting just 33.5 FanDuel points in his most recent contest. That said, he’s one of the best values of the day among the high-priced players on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s capable of exploding in any matchup, which makes him an excellent candidate for GPPs.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Joel Embiid
Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove- USA Today Sports
