The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Kemba Walker is coming off a dominant 81.25-point DraftKings performance in his most recent contest and continues to post career-best numbers this season. He’s averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute, which is the highest mark at the position on today’s slate.
That said, he’s in one of the worst spots of the day vs. the Boston Celtics, who currently rank 23rd in pace and first in defensive efficiency. The Hornets’ resulting implied team total of 107.75 represents a decrease of more than seven points compared to their season average (114.9). Still, Walker could be worth some consideration on FanDuel, where his $9,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He also leads all PGs with 12 Pro Trends.
Ben Simmons might be the preferred option if you’re paying up at the PG position. He owns an elite matchup vs. the Phoenix Suns, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season, and the 76ers’ implied team total of 115.5 ranks second on the slate. Simmons also owns a good individual matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.30.
Value
We may have seen a passing of the torch at the PG position in Denver. Monte Morris came off the bench in his last game but still played more minutes than starter Jamal Murray. Morris has now played at least 29 minutes in each of his past three games and has averaged a respectable 0.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He should be one of the most popular value plays of the day on DraftKings, where his $4,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
The Kings were blown out in their last game, resulting in just 25.5 minutes of playing time for De’Aaron Fox. He should return to his normal workload if today’s game vs. the Thunder is more competitive, and his price has decreased by $800 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute this season, which makes this an excellent time to buy low on him.
Bryn Forbes is priced at just $3,600 on FanDuel but has posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over his past 14 games. He’s a low-ceiling player but could have some viability for cash games in a pace-up spot vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. He could also see a few additional minutes if Rudy Gay misses today’s contest.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jrue Holiday has absolutely crushed over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.33 on DraftKings. He’s seen a price increase of $900 over that time frame, but his $8,700 salary still comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. The Spurs represent a difficult test for the Pelicans – they’ve played at the third-slowest pace this season – but Holiday still leads all players at the position with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Value
Jeremy Lamb has seen a big boost in value with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist out of the lineup recently, scoring at least 37.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and Lamb has historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.44 and a Consistency Rating of 64.7% with a comparable minutes projection (per the Trends tool). He’s a particularly appealing option on DraftKings, where his $5,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
Russell Westbrook is not expected to play in today’s contest, which makes Dennis Schroder an appealing option vs. the Sacramento Kings. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace in the league this season, and Schroder has averaged 1.12 FanDuel points per minute with Westbrook off the floor. He’s one of the best values of the day at just $7,500 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Devin Booker leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel and is in an interesting spot vs. the Philadelphia 76ers. They’ve been one of the better defensive teams in the league this season, but they’ve also played at a very fast pace. The result is an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.91 on FanDuel, and he should command lower ownership than some of the other top SG options at the position.
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Small Forward
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been a fantasy monster on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 1.62 FanDuel points per minute. That said, that hasn’t exactly resulted in good fantasy value: He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -6.65 over his past 10 games. The Bucks’ success has limited him to an average of just 32.6 minutes per game this season, but he’s currently projected for 36.5 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s due for some progression moving forward.
Still, that may not start today vs. the Denver Nuggets. They rank just 27th in pace and ninth in defensive efficiency, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 115.5 is more than five points lower than their season average (121.1).
Paul George could be an interesting pivot away from Giannis on FanDuel, where his $10,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends and has posted at least 59.2 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. Despite that, his salary has actually decreased by $500 on FanDuel after his last game, and he’s in an elite spot today vs. the Kings.
Value
Tyreke Evans started in the second half of the Pacers’ most recent contest, and he has a shot to remain there with Victor Oladipo out of the lineup today vs. the Utah Jazz. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute with Oladipo off the floor, so he has big upside at $4,100. He still probably wont approach 30 minutes, but he doesn’t need to at his minimal salary across the industry.
Fast Break
TJ Warren is undoubtedly one of the best options at the position on today’s slate. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games and has scored at least 42.25 DraftKings points in three of them. No one at the position is projected for more minutes than Warren, and his $6,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Nikola Mirotic has been priced down to $7,100 on DraftKings, which represents a decrease of more than $1,000 from his peak. A game against the Spurs doesn’t seem like the ideal time to buy low, but he did score 44.0 DraftKings points in a difficult matchup vs. the Nuggets in his last game.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis has been absolutely rolling of late, scoring at least 58.25 DraftKings points in six straight games. He’s seen a massive amount of playing time over that time frame, playing at least 39.5 minutes in three of his past four games, and his $11,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
That said, his matchup vs. the Spurs is concerning. They’ve been his personal kryptonite over the past three seasons, limiting him to an average Plus/Minus of -8.92 in nine meetings. Davis can obviously go off against anyone, but there’s more risk than usual with him on today’s slate.
Value
The Clippers are in arguably the best spot of the day vs. the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the league and rank just 22nd in defensive efficiency; the Clippers’ implied team total of 119.5 ranks first on the slate by a significant margin.
Montrezl Harrell remains affordable at just $6,600 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s seen a nice bump in playing time recently, getting at least 27 minutes in five of his past six games, and he’s averaged an elite 1.29 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He could have a field day against the Hawks.
Fast Break
Domantas Sabonis is a very similar fantasy player to Harrell, meaning he can do a lot of damage in limited minutes. He’s projected for only 26 today vs. the Jazz but has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s priced at just $6,300 on DraftKings and owns one of the highest Projected Plus/Minus marks in our NBA Models.
Tobias Harris and LaMarcus Aldridge are both in excellent spots and should see reduced ownership on today’s slate. They’re better values on FanDuel, where each owns a Bargain Rating of at least 60%.
Center
Stud
The center position is absolutely loaded on today’s slate, but Joel Embiid stands out as the top option. He’s averaged 1.52 FanDuel points per minute over the past month – which is identical to Davis – but for some reason he’s not viewed as the same elite fantasy asset. He’s more than $1,000 cheaper at $11,500 on FanDuel.
He’s also in a much better spot today vs. the Phoenix Suns. Rookie center Deandre Ayton has struggled with foul trouble at times this season, and he could be in for a rough night vs. Embiid. The Philly center has attempted at least 60 more free throws than every other player in the league this season.
Value
Willie Cauley-Stein has been priced down to just $5,800 for today’s matchup vs. the Thunder, which makes this an excellent buy-low opportunity. He’s dealt with a combination of poor production and reduced minutes in blowouts recently but has still averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season. He should return to his normal workload if this game stays competitive, which gives him an appealing floor and ceiling.
Fast Break
Nikola Jokic is impossible to trust on a night-to-night basis but definitely has upside today vs. the Bucks. It’s an extreme pace-up spot, and Milwaukee has been pretty mediocre against opposing centers this season.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Montrezl Harrell
Photo credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA Today Sports
