The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kemba Walker leads all PGs on Saturday’s slate with an average of 1.24 FanDuel points per minute and appears to be in one of the best spots of the day. He has a nice matchup against the 76ers, who have played at the sixth-fastest pace this season. The result is an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.42 on FanDuel, where he leads all players at the position with 12 Pro Trends. He also looks to be one of the best values on FanDuel, where his $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Values
The Raptors are dealing with a handful of injuries, with Kawhi Leonard, C.J. Miles, OG Anunoby and Norman Powell all expected to miss Saturday’s contest. That should result in a few extra minutes for Delon Wright and Fred VanVleet in an elite matchup against Chicago. The Bulls rank just 24th in defensive efficiency while the Raptors’ implied team total of 112.5 ranks sixth on the slate.
VanVleet has been slightly more productive this season, averaging 0.83 DraftKings points per minute, but Wright is cheaper across the industry.
Fast Break
Jamal Murray came off the bench in the Nuggets’ last game after a “small violation of team rules” but is fully expected to return to the starting lineup on Saturday. He’s in an excellent spot against the Pelicans, who are tied for third in pace this season, and his $6,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Lonzo Ball saw 32 minutes in his last contest compared to just 16 for Rajon Rondo. If that trend continues, Ball is going to be a nice value at just $5,600 on FanDuel. He’s averaged 0.92 fantasy points per minute, and the Lakers’ implied team total of 113.75 ranks fifth on the slate.
The Hawks will be without Taurean Prince on Saturday, which could make Trae Young an interesting target in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Young has posted a usage rate of 32.5% with Prince off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.12 DraftKings points per minute. Young has also been priced down to $6,600 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Shooting Guard
Studs
If James Harden can’t smash against the Kings, it’s officially time to worry. The Kings have played at second-fastest pace in the league this season, which makes this one of the most extreme pace-up spots of the day. Harden hasn’t played in a ton of pace-up games prior to this season — Houston historically played fast under Mike D’Antonio — and Harden hasn’t played in a game with this high of a pace differential (paceD) in our Trends database (+8.9).
The Rockets’ resulting implied team total of 115.5 is also the highest mark on Satuday’s slate and Harden’s $11,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Jrue Holiday has crushed over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.01 on DraftKings. He’s seen a price increase of +$1,600 over that span, but his current $8,100 salary still comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He has a difficult matchup against the Nuggets, who rank sixth in defensive efficiency and 27th in pace, but it’s hard to argue against his 100% Consistency Rating for cash games.
Value
Danny Green is another member of the Raptors who could see a few additional minutes given their current injury situation. He’s averaged just 0.73 FanDuel points per minute over the past month but is currently projected for 30.5 minutes in our NBA Models. That should be enough playing time for him to have a chance at returning value on his $4,200 salary.
Fast Break
Two players are tied with a position-high 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel: Devin Booker and Zach LaVine. LaVine has been the superior player on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 1.09 FanDuel points per minute, but Booker is slightly cheaper and has a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Andre Iguodala could see a few additional minutes with the Warriors down a few starters. He’s currently projected for 27.5 minutes and has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.38 on FanDuel with a comparable minute projection and salary (per our Trends tool).
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant has a strong claim to the top spot on Saturday’s slate. The Warriors will be without Draymond Green and Steph Curry, and Durant has led the team in usage rate and assist rate with both players off the court this season. The result is an average of 1.55 DraftKings points per minute, which is significantly higher than his average of 1.41 to start the season.
Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kevin Durant
Durant has been priced up pretty aggressively across the industry, but his $10,600 salary on DraftKings still comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
TJ Warren has been fantastic since reentering the starting lineup, scoring at least 34.5 DraftKings points in each of his past four games. He’s cracked the 40-point barrier in three of those contests, but he remains affordable at $6,000 on DraftKings. He’s in a good spot against the Thunder, who have played at the ninth-fastest pace this season.
Fast Break
Nicolas Batum hasn’t seen the most consistent playing time recently, but that could change with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ruled out for Saturday’s matchup against the 76ers. He’s seen a price decrease of $1,400 on FanDuel over the past month, which could make this a good buy-low opportunity.
The Thunder are still without Russell Westbrook, which means we can continue to target Paul George. George has averaged more than 46 DraftKings points per game with Westbrook out of the lineup this season and is coming off a 59.75-fantasy point performance against the Knicks in his last game.
George could be an nice pivot off Durant in GPPs given his projected ownership of 9-12%.
Power Forward
Stud
So this Anthony Davis guy is pretty good, huh? He dropped 76.75 DraftKings points on the Knicks on Friday, marking the seventh time over the past two seasons that he’s recorded at least 40 points and 15 rebounds. To put that in perspective, the rest of the league has just eight such games combined.
Davis appears to be in another good spot against the Nuggets. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.68. He’s also priced at a bit of a discount on DraftKings, where his $11,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Marvin Williams could be an appealing value option on Saturday’s slate. He’s played more minutes for the Hornets recently, seeing at least 26.5 in three of his past four games. He’s been pretty effective when on the court, averaging 0.78 DraftKings points per minute, so he doesn’t need to play much to potentially pay off his $4,000 salary.
Fast Break
The Raptors haven’t played many minutes with Leonard, Miles, Anunoby and Powell all off the floor this season, but Pascal Siakam has dominated in that situation. He’s seen the largest usage bump on the team, resulting in an average of 1.27 FanDuel points per minute. He should see at least 34 minutes on Saturday’s slate as long as the game stays competitive, which makes him an excellent target across the industry.
If you feel like loading up on the Raptors, Serge Ibaka is in play too: He’s averaged 1.21 FanDuel points per minute this season and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.91.
Derrick Favors continues to deliver solid production for fantasy owners and posted a positive Plus/Minus for the eighth time in nine games on Friday. He remains affordable on DraftKings, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Center
Stud
It feels like the Magic have been trying to move on from Nikola Vucevic for the better part of two seasons, but the guy is an elite fantasy producer when given ample playing time.
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nikola Vucevic
Vucevic has averaged an elite 1.40 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is coming off an impressive 50.6 fantasy point performance against Joel Embiid. Vucevic has a much easier matchup against the Lakers as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.82, and he leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Value
As usual, the center position is loaded with values on DraftKings, but one player in particular who stands out is Willie Cauley-Stein. He’s been priced down to $6,100 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and WCS has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.67 with a comparable salary this season. He’s also in a nice spot against the Rockets given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.85.
Fast Break
Nikola Jokic is a classic boom-or-bust type of player, but Saturday’s contest against the Pelicans could definitely be a boom spot. It’s a major pace-up spot for the Nuggets, and Jokic owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.44 on FanDuel. He’s projected for just 5-8% ownership, which makes him an ideal contrarian GPP target.
If you’re looking to save at the center position, consider Cody Zeller. The Hornets are coming off a blowout loss to the Cavaliers, but Zeller played a season-high 31.5 minutes in the game prior. He could see a similar workload on Saturday to try and combat the size of Embiid on the interior and has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Pascal Siakam
Photo credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
