The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Don’t look now, but the Wizards might just be getting their act together after winning three straight games. Those wins haven’t exactly come against a murderers’ row – they beat the Heat, Magic and Cavaliers – but the Wizards won’t see a step up in weight class against the Nets. Brooklyn ranks 24th in defensive efficiency, and Washington is listed as 6.5-point favorites as of writing (see live odds here).
John Wall has one of the best individual matchups of the day, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.25 on DraftKings. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games prior to playing just 21.5 minutes in a blowout on Wednesday, and his $9,500 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
The Jazz are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Mavericks in their last game and face another difficult test against the 76ers. Ricky Rubio in particular has struggled in his past two games, but there are reasons to believe he can turn it around on Friday’s slate. For starters, he owns one of the best individual matchups at the PG position as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.36 on DraftKings. He’s also been limited to just 24.5 minutes or less in his past two games, but he should return to his normal workload as long as this game stays competitive.
Fast Break
The Grizzlies are in a massive pace-up spot against the Kings, who have averaged the most possessions per game to start the season. That could mean big things for Mike Conley, who has commanded the highest usage rate of his career through his first 13 games. Conley has historically crushed in comparable pace-up situations, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.87 on DraftKings (per our Trends tool).
Conley is one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Eric Bledsoe could make some sense against the Bulls. The Bucks’ implied team total of 119.25 ranks first on the slate, and the Bulls rank just 23rd in terms of defensive efficiency. Bledsoe has average 1.12 FanDuel points per minute this season and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Victor Oladipo got off to a slow start this season but has turned it on recently. He’s scored at least 50.5 DraftKings points in five of his past six games and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.55 on DraftKings over his past 10 games. Has salary has risen quite a bit over that time frame, but his current $9,300 price tag still comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
He has a nice matchup against the Heat, who have played at a significantly faster pace than the Pacers. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.36, and his 12 Pro Trends is tied for the top mark among SGs.
Zach LaVine is in an interesting spot. He’s been a usage monster, ranking third in the league at 33.1%, and he’s in a nice pace-up spot against the Bucks. That said, the Bucks are also one of the better defensive teams in the league, and the Bulls are massive 14.5-point underdogs. Historically, comparable underdogs have averaged a Plus/Minus of -2.63. He has upside, but he’s probably best suited for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
Justin Holiday could also be worth some consideration for the Bulls. He hasn’t been great on a per-minute basis, averaging just 0.69 DraftKings points per minute, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month. He’s currently projected for 35.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.83 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
CJ McCollum remains priced at a discount on FanDuel, where his $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 60%. He’s been much better of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, and has a nice matchup against the Timberwolves. They’ve played at the ninth-fastest pace this season, and the Blazers’ implied team total of 112.0 points ranks fourth on the slate.
Garrett Temple could be an interesting punt play on DraftKings. He’s played at least 34 minutes in each of his past three games, and getting some cheap exposure to the Grizzlies in an extreme pace-up spot seems like a sharp decision.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has struggled recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past five games. That said, he could be an interesting buy-low target against the Bulls.
Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Antetokounmpo has seen a price decrease of $500 on FanDuel over the past month, and his $11,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%. There’s obviously some blowout concern, but Giannis could potential return value, even if he sees reduced minutes. He’s averaged a slate best 1.62 FanDuel points per minute and leads all players with 13 Pro Trends.
Value
Kyle Anderson has turned things around for the Grizzlies, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games on DraftKings. He’s played at least 32.5 minutes in each of his past four games and remains affordable at $4,800. He figures to be one of the most popular value options of the day and should be a staple of cash game lineups.
Fast Break
Mario Hezonja has started to play more minutes for the Knicks recently, seeing at least 21.5 in five of his past six games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all five of those contests and has averaged a respectable 0.84 FanDuel points per minute. He’s affordable across the industry and is projected for just 2-4% ownership on DraftKings.
Nikola Mirotic is expected to play on Friday against the Knicks despite dealing with an ankle injury. It didn’t appear to limit him in his last game — he played 33.5 minutes — and has averaged 1.23 FanDuel points per minute this season. His salary has decreased by $600 from its peak, so this could be a good time to buy low on him.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is the clear top PF option on the slate, but it’s hard to justify paying $12,800 for him on FanDuel when Giannis is $1,300 cheaper. It’s much closer on DraftKings, where Davis has a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Davis has been good recently, scoring at least 58.25 DraftKings points in four straight games, and the Pelicans’ implied team total of 118.75 ranks second on the slate. The Knicks have been the fourth-worst team in terms of defensive efficiency this season but do rank just 18th in pace. He’s projected for just 9-12% ownership on DraftKings, which makes him a perfect option for GPPs.
Value
Derrick Favors isn’t playing a ton of minutes for the Jazz but has averaged 1.1 DraftKings points per minute. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.68 over his past 10 games, yet his still seen a price decrease of $600 over that time frame. He’s one of the better value options of the day on DraftKings, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
Noah Vonleh will come off the bench for the Knicks but still figures to see a healthy amount of playing time. He’s priced at just $4,400 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86%, and has averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute.
Thaddeus Young and Ersan Ilyasova are two other cheap options worth considering. Young is the safer bet for minutes — he’s currently projected for 29 in our NBA Models — but Ilyasova has averaged more fantasy points per minute this season. The Bucks are also shorthanded on Friday, with John Henson and Donte DiVincenzo both out of the foreseeable future.
Center
Studs
Karl-Anthony Towns has thrived with Jimmy Butler out of the lineup this season, averaging 49.8 DraftKings points per game this season. Towns still remains priced at a discount on DraftKings, where his $9,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Karl-Anthony Towns
Towns is in a decent spot against the Trail Blazers, giving him an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.68.
Marc Gasol might be the best value of the day at center. He has an elite matchup against the Kings, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.22 on DraftKings, and his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s historically crushed in comparable pace up situations, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.08.
Value
Wendell Carter Jr. has been a fantastic value on DraftKings recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.15 over his past 10 games. He has failed to return value in each of his past three games, but that has resulted in a salary decrease of over $1,000 from its peak. He looks like an excellent buy-low option at $5,300 as evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
As usual, most of the centers are better values on DraftKings than FanDuel, but Enes Kanter is the one glaring exception. He owns a Bargain Rating of 95% on FanDuel after seeing a salary decrease of $1,700 over the past few weeks. He’s not expected to start but should still see a healthy amount of playing time off the bench, and he’s averaged 1.25 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Joel Embiid could see reduced ownership today against the Jazz, but Utah has actually struggled mightily against opposing centers this season. The result is an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.14 on DraftKings, where his 12 Pro trends are tied for the most at the position.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Mike Conley, Marc Gasol
Photo credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
