NBA Breakdown (Thu. 11/15): Fade Kevin Durant vs. Rockets?

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Thursday features a three-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

Today’s three-game slate is a little light on high-priced point guards, with only Chris Paul owning a salary above $7,500 on FanDuel. Paul has struggled recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in just one of his past six games, but he does lead the position with nine Pro Trends on FanDuel.

Paul doesn’t have a great matchup vs. the Warriors — he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.05 — but he did post an average Plus/Minus of +3.84 over three regular season matchups vs. them last season. Vegas is also showing the Rockets some respect given all of Golden State’s injuries, as they are currently 3.5-point favorites over the defending champs.

Value

The Denver Nuggets are in the best spot of the day vs. the Atlanta Hawks, who are playing at the fastest pace in the league this season. Their implied team total of 117.25 is at least six points greater than every other team, so you’re probably going to want some exposure to them on today’s slate.

One way to do so on DraftKings is by targeting Monte Morris. He’s become a solid part of the Nuggets’ rotation, playing at least 26.5 minutes in three of their past four games, and he’s averaging a respectable 0.89 DraftKings points per minute. He’s really affordable on DraftKings, where his $4,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Fast Break

Jamal Murray is another potential target for the Nuggets. He has failed to return value in each of his past four games, but that could make this a nice buy-low opportunity: His salary has decreased by $1,000 on DraftKings over that time frame. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.90 on DraftKings ranks second at the position.

Derrick White has been effective for the Spurs since returning from injury, averaging 0.84 DraftKings points per minute. He has played at least 29 minutes in two of his past three games and is projected for 29 minutes today vs. the Los Angeles Clippers. That would make him a nice value at $4,800 on DraftKings.

Shooting Guard

Studs

James Harden is having a disappointing season by his lofty standards, owning an average Plus/Minus of -1.30 through his first 10 games on DraftKings. That said, he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games and is in an interesting spot today vs. the Warriors.

The Rockets have surprisingly played at one of the slowest paces in the league this season, so today’s matchup represents in a nice pace-up spot. It results in a pace differential (paceD) of +4.1 for Harden, who has historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.50 on DraftKings in comparable pace-up situations (per the Trends tool). He’s also priced at just $10,700 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Klay Thompson has seen a large price increase over the past week or so, but it’s hard to argue that it hasn’t been warranted. He’s scored at least 32.7 FanDuel points in five straight games, and he’ll have an opportunity to command an even larger workload on today’s slate.

Steph Curry (out) and Draymond Green (questionable) could both miss today’s contest vs. the Rockets, and Thompson has seen a usage bump of +4.7% with both players off the floor this season. He’s a slightly better value today on FanDuel with a Bargain Rating of 68%.

Value

It’s a tough day to pay down too much at the shooting guard position, but Eric Gordon could be worth some consideration. He continues to struggle from a fantasy perspective, but his shooting numbers suggest he’s due for some positive regression.

He’s making just 32.3% of his shots from the field and 23.5% of his shots from 3-point range, both of which are severely lower than his career marks. His salary has decreased by $700 since the start of the season on FanDuel, so he’ll be a nice value when his shot eventually starts falling.

Fast Break

Gary Harris has been a solid player this season, posting a 92% Consistency Rating on DraftKings, but hasn’t really posted any eye-popping performances. That probably makes him best suited for cash games, but he does own a strong Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.55 vs. the Hawks.

DeMar DeRozan is in a tough spot vs. the Los Angeles Clippers, but he could be worth a look on FanDuel. His salary has decreased by $1,000 after peaking at $9,900 two weeks ago, and he continues to lead the Spurs in both usage and assist rate.

Small Forward

Stud

Kevin Durant is in his own tier on today’s slate, and he’s going to cost you if you want to pay up for him. He has seen a salary increase of $2,100 on both DraftKings an FanDuel over the past month. That said, he’s posted a usage rate of over 37% in both games without Curry this season, resulting in an average of 1.53 DraftKings points per minute.

He should also see more play making responsibilities with Green out of the lineup as well: His assist rate has increased by +15.3% with both Green and Curry off the floor.

That said, he could be an interesting fade candidate for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) if you’re willing to stomach some risk. He can obviously go off in this matchup — he has the highest ceiling projection on today’s slate — but he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of -4.86 with a comparable salary on DraftKings.

This is also a tough spot for Durant, who will draw the individual defense of P.J. Tucker, and the Warriors are implied for just 107.5 points. There’s a good chance he’ll be the highest owned player on the slate, so fading him could give you a huge leg up on the competition if he busts.

Value

Juan Hernangomez could be another way to get some cheap exposure to the Nuggets. He’s priced at just $3,800 on DraftKings and $4,100 on FanDuel and is currently projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models. He hasn’t been super productive this season, averaging just 0.68 FanDuel points per minute, but players with comparable minute projections, per-minute averages, and salaries have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +2.60.

Fast Break

Rudy Gay rested during the Spurs’ last game but should be good to go for today’s matchup vs. the Clippers. He’s averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute this season and has been priced down by nearly $1,500 since returning from injury.

Danilo Gallinari looks like one of the best values of the day at $5,800 on DraftKings. He’s failed to exceed salary based expectations in his past two games after shooting just 25.9% from the field, but he’s still averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s still playing plenty of minutes, so he has nice upside if his shot starts falling again.

Power Forward

Stud

LaMarcus Aldridge has struggled over his past 10 games on FanDuel, posting an average Plus/Minus of -5.82, but he seems like a prime candidate for some positive regression. He’s shot just 33.3% from the field over his past four games, which is a massive decrease from the 52.0% he shot last season.

He has seen a slight reduction in usage rate with DeRozan joining the team in the offseason, but he’s not going to struggle like this forever. His current matchup vs. the Clippers is also a good one: He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.73 in a solid pace-up spot.

Value

Jonas Jerebko would be an interesting value play if Green is indeed ruled out for today’s contest. He drew the start for Green on Tuesday and posted 36.75 DraftKings points in just 24.5 minutes of playing time. He remains affordable at $3,900 on DraftKings and has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute.

Fast Break

Montrezl Harrell has always been super productive when given a chance to play, and this season has been no exception: He’s averaging 1.27 DraftKings points per minute. The big difference is that Harrell is actually getting consistent playing time this season, seeing at least 30 minutes in three of his past four games. He’s simply too cheap at $6,200 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Paul Millsap and Trey Lyles could both be intriguing options today for the Nuggets. Each player has averaged over 1.00 fantasy points per minute this season, although their playing time has been a little inconsistent. Of the two, Millsap has the higher ceiling, but Lyles is significantly cheaper and could be the better pure value.

Center

Stud

Nikola Jokic has a tendency to disappear at times and can be way too content to defer to his teammates. That said, he has been much more aggressive looking to score recently, posting a usage rate of at least 26.9% in each of his past three games. He’s a fantasy monster when he wants to be — his average of 1.47 FanDuel points per minute is better than both Harden’s and Durant’s — and he’s in the best spot of the stud players vs. the Atlanta Hawks. Jokic is a classic boom-or-bust type of player, but he has a lot of boom potential on today’s slate.

Value

Alex Len is currently questionable for today’s contest vs. the Nuggets, but it’s hard not to like him if he is able to suit up. He’s played at least 27 minutes in each of his past two games and has averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute this season. That kind of production would be hard to ignore at just $4,700.

Fast Break

Clint Capela is priced at a discount on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. That said, his track record vs. the Warriors ins’t exactly inspiring: He averaged just 28.08 DraftKings points in two regular season matchups vs. Golden State last season.

Good luck!

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.

Pictured above: Kevin Durant
Photo credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports