NFL DFS Stacks Breakdown: Saquon Barkley Ready to Run Amok in Week 11

Using our Stacking tool found within our Player Models, this piece will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. Check out our Correlations page as well to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.

Quarterback + Wide Receiver

• Ben Roethlisberger: $5,800 DraftKings; $8,000 FanDuel
• Antonio Brown: $7,800 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel

While defense does matter, DraftKings has been aggressively adjusting player pricing all year for matchups. This has led to some great value propositions worth taking a chance on in tournaments. Brown hasn’t been priced this low in more than three years, and with good reason. Here are his finishes at wide receiver in DraftKings points per game since 2014:

2014: 2
2015: 1
2016: 1
2017: 1

The dominant force is eighth in points per game so far in 2018, but has still not scored fewer than 15 points in any game this season. In 10 games since 2014 where he was priced at $8,000 or less, Brown has averaged 25.5 DraftKings points and a 5.9 plus/minus.

Roethlisberger has been equally lethal in DFS when his price has dropped. In eight games since 2014 where he was priced $6,000 or less, Big Ben averages 21.3 points and a 4.71 plus/minus.

The Jaguars are being overvalued in this matchup, even if A.J. Bouye is able to make his return to face Pittsburgh. Jacksonville is just 15th in pass DVOA, and ranks 24th in Pro Football Focus coverage grading. Take advantage of the price drop for the Steeler passing game stars.

Running Back + D/ST

• Saquon Barkley: $8,700 DraftKings; $8,800 FanDuel
• New York Giants: $2,400 DraftKings; $3,700 FanDuel

The Bucs have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, and our Ian Hartitz showed that they are likely getting worse.

Buccaneers defense rush yards allowed by week

Week 1: 43
Week 2: 91
Week 3: 78
Week 4: 139
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: 70
<LBs Kwon Alexander and Jack Cichy suffer season-ending injuries>
Week 7: 119
Week 8: 138
Week 9: 179
Week 10: 116

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 13, 2018

The Bucs have allowed more than 100 yards rushing per game since Week 7, including five-plus yards per carry.

Barkley is fifth in average DraftKings points scored — and sixth on FanDuel — despite the Giants being an underdog in every game this season. Since 2014, running backs priced at $8,000 or more have averaged 2.3 more DraftKings points when favored compared to when they are underdogs. The Giants are finally favored in this matchup, which as detailed already, is excellent.

It’s a great matchup for the defense as well. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a better passer than Jameis Winston this season, but he’s also been giving up fantasy points to opposing defenses in bunches. In Fitzpatrick’s six starts, opposing defenses are averaging 9.3 fantasy points with a plus/minus of 1.6. He is throwing an interception on 4% of passes. The only current starter throwing interceptions at a higher rate is rookie Sam Darnold.

Quarterback + Running Back + Tight End + Opposing Wide Receiver

• Cam Newton: $6,200 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel
• Christian McCaffrey: $8,000 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel
• Greg Olsen: $5,000 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel
• Kenny Golladay: $5,800 DraftKings; $6,400 FanDuel

Newton is our highest projected quarterback this weekend on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and is a top two points/salary value despite being top three in price on both sites. He has delivered over 20 fantasy points in six of his nine games, and over 25 points four times. The Lions are 31st in pass DVOA, and were most recently shredded by Mitchell Trubisky to the tune of 39 DraftKings points.

McCaffrey has not only dominated offensive touches with a 22% target share and 73% of non-quarterback rush attempts. He is also dominated the scoring. After scoring just one touchdown in his first six games, McCaffrey has been red hot in the paint, scoring seven times in his past three contests. No other Panthers skill player has more than four all season.

Since returning from injury in Week 6, Olsen has just three less targets than McCaffrey, and is tied for the team lead with three receiving touchdowns. He has an average plus/minus of 1.89 in games with a total of at least 49 since 2014.

Since trading Golden Tate prior to Week 9, Golladay has amassed a 22% target share, and leads the team with a 0.65 Weighted Opportunity Rating. He has the potential for a second boost this week with Marvin Jones dealing with a bone bruise on his knee. He missed practice on Wednesday, and may not play this week. That would make Golladay the clear focal point of the offense, and he could secure around 30% of the targets for under $6,000.

Quarterback + Running Back + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver

• Drew Brees: $6,500 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel
• Mark Ingram: $4,700 DraftKings; $7,100 FanDuel
• Michael Thomas: $8,800 DraftKings; $8,800 FanDuel
• Alshon Jeffery: $6,300 DraftKings; $7,300 FanDuel

The Saints continue to find themselves in high-scoring environments, and will continue to be featured in this piece. This game has a 56 point total, and the Saints will be returning home, where they traditionally score more points. The Saints defense is 28th in pass DVOA. With the Eagles secondary being a mess, this feels like a game destined to shootout. Brees has played in five games since 2014 with a total of at least 55. He owns a whopping 5.3 average plus/minus in those contests.

Ingram has not seen any more volume in recent weeks, but he proved in Week 10 that he can still score a high number of fantasy points against teams who give up big plays on the ground. The Eagles have very quietly been a disaster in run defense, allowing a monstrous 6.4 yards per carry since Week 6. Ingram also managed to score a receiving touchdown last week, an obvious benefit to a stack with Brees. He is still very cheap on DraftKings, but the FanDuel price has caught up quickly.

Thomas doesn’t need a ton of explanation. The Eagles can’t stop number one receivers, allowing the most yards per game to them according to Football Outsiders. Calling Thomas a number one receiver may be an insult at this point, as he is currently catching 90% of his targets. He is the focal point of this passing game, and a must any time you are looking to stack Brees.

Jeffery has very quietly put together a great season. He owns a 23% target share, and has gone over 20 DraftKings points in half of his games. The Saints have had their own issues at corner, and have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

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Pictured above: Saquon Barkley (26)

Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports