The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a three-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
There are three point guards priced at $7,500 or higher on FanDuel: Kemba Walker ($9,000), Chris Paul ($8,800) and Trae Young ($7,500).
Of the three, Kemba has the highest projected ceiling and by far the easiest matchup against the Cavaliers, who rank 28th in defensive efficiency this season, allowing a putrid 112.3 points per 100 possessions. Further, he easily leads the position with 1.29 fantasy points per minute on the season, and he’s the only PG with double-digit Pro Trends.
Walker is especially valuable on FanDuel, where his salary comes with a 98% Bargain Rating.
Values
One of the tougher dilemmas of the slate is whether to focus on Warriors PG Quinn Cook at $5,800 on FanDuel or roster Cavs PG Collin Sexton at $100 cheaper. Cook is in line to start again for the injured Stephen Curry, but Cook really disappointed on Monday night, scoring just 12.2 FanDuel points in 22 minutes of action. The game before that, though, Cook put up 41.1 fantasy points in nearly 30 minutes. He scored 27 real points and dished out five assists.
He has a low floor, and Sexton perhaps beats him in that regard. The rookie has played 34 and 41 minutes over the past two games, and he’s projected for 34 on Tuesday night in our NBA models. He went for 30 DraftKings points in his last game and used 22.5% of the Cavs’ possessions while on the floor. The usage and minutes projection likely makes him the safer cash-game play, while the lower ownership could make Cook an intriguing guaranteed prize pool pivot.
Fast Break
Two Denver PGs are interesting in tournaments, and possibly even in cash games. The higher-priced starter, Jamal Murray, is projected for a slate-high 37 minutes and will face a shorthanded Houston squad that ranks 19th defensively this season.
Murray’s backup, Monte Morris, is projected to play just 23 to 24 minutes but has hit value in four straight games, going for 26.25 and 28 DraftKings points in his last two games. He’s incredibly cheap at $3,700.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden ($11,500) is the highest-priced option on FanDuel by a whopping $4,400. He obviously carries the highest median, floor and ceiling projections, although we currently have him with a negative Projected Plus/Minus against a Denver team that has surprisingly ranked in the top 10 this season. Harden finally put up a good game last time out, going for 58.9 FanDuel points and 40 real points in 38 minutes.
Harden will have to play a ton again on Tuesday night, as the Rockets will likely be down to just an eight-man rotation due to multiple injuries.
Value
Cavs guard Jordan Clarkson is #notgood in real life, but he’s been a nice fantasy asset of late, exceeding salary-based expectations on FanDuel in eight of his last 10 games and posting a +3.59 Plus/Minus over that time. He’s projected to go more than 31 minutes against a Charlotte squad that has struggled to defend guards, evidenced by his solid +1.18 Opponent Plus/Minus. He leads all SGs on Tuesday with 10 Pro Trends and is still cheap at $5,700.
Fast Break
Eric Gordon has a tough matchup against Denver, but again, the Rockets are projected to be incredibly thin on Tuesday night. Gordon is expected to go more than 30 minutes and use up a good chunk of Houston’s possessions on offense. He’s been disappointing this season, but the opportunity has been there. The issue is solely shooting: He ranks in the seventh-percentile among guards in points per shot attempt. Perhaps he’ll see positive regression soon.
Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Klay Thompson
Klay Thompson can always go off for a ton of points, and he seemingly does it against poor competition. He’ll have that against the Hawks, who rank 21st in defensive efficiency. They’ve allowed the fifth-most 3-pointers in the league, and Klay will certainly be hoisting without his fellow Splash Bro.
Small Forward
Stud
On Monday night without Curry, Kevin Durant played 39 minutes (despite fouling out) and posted a 37.8% usage rate. He finished with 33 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists, two blocks and a steal — good for 66.2 FanDuel points. So far this season, he’s averaging a stupid 1.59 FanDuel points per minute with his fellow star off the court.
The biggest concern is that Durant is playing on the second leg of a back-to-back and is a large 12-point favorite against a poor Hawks squad (see live odds here). If that doesn’t bother you — it probably shouldn’t — he’s clearly the stud of the slate and boasts the highest projected ceiling.
Value
Juancho Hernangomez is nearly min-priced at $3,800 on both sites and is projected for 29.5 minutes. He got up to 29.5 last game against the = Bucks, although he disappointed with just 15.1 FanDuel points during that time. Still, he’s averaging 0.71 fantasy points per minute, and if that holds against a depleted Rockets squad, he’ll easily hit value at that low salary point.
Fast Break
Miles Bridges has a slightly higher Projected Plus/Minus than Hernangomez on DraftKings, where his $3,700 salary comes with a huge 99% Bargain Rating. For reference, Bridges is all the way up at $5,200 on FanDuel. Bridges should get a bump with forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist out for the Hornets, as laid out in Tuesday’s NBA Injury Report. Per J.J. Calle, Bridges played the entire fourth quarter of Sunday’s win without MKG.
Not to be confused with the amazing Gary Clark (Jr.) blues musician, the Houston rookie of the same name could see a few extra minutes on Tuesday night with all of the Houston injuries. He has largely taken Carmelo Anthony’s place in the rotation, and he got up to nearly 33 minutes last game against the Pacers.
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Power Forward
Stud
Draymond Green ($8,200) is the only PF priced above $6,000 on FanDuel. He’s coming off a disappointing performance on Monday night in which he scored just 30.8 fantasy points in 42.4 minutes of action. Still, he has big upside, especially with secondary stats, and he’ll need to play big minutes again with Curry out and Andre Iguodala possibly sitting out the second leg of a back-to-back.
Green has a beautiful matchup against a Hawks squad that has easily committed the most turnovers in the league this season.
Value
Cavs PF Larry Nance Jr. has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the entire slate on both sites, showing just how mis-priced he is across the industry. He went for 30.5 DraftKings points in 30.5 minutes last game, and that was despite scoring just two real points. He pulled down 14 boards and posted four blocks.
It looks like Larry Drew will keep giving Nance big minutes on Tuesday night, and he’s in a nice pace-up spot against a Hornets team that struggles down low.
Fast Break
Make sure to monitor the status of Houston forward P.J. Tucker. He’s currently questionable to play with an illness, but if he’s able to suit up, he’ll likely play between 35 and 40 minutes. That’s incredibly valuable, especially at $4,500 on FanDuel.
Center
Stud
Only two guys are priced above $6,100 on FanDuel: Nikola Jokic ($9,700) and Clint Capela ($8,000).
Jokic obviously has a massive ceiling — he went for 69.7 fantasy points just two games ago — but he’s been quite inconsistent as a fantasy producer despite the outbursts. Over his past 10 games, he’s averaged a -5.19 Plus/Minus and has hit value in only two of them. Capela, meanwhile, who is laughably cheap on DraftKings at $6,400, by the way, has averaged a +4.49 DraftKings Plus/Minus and has hit value in seven of his last 10.
Capela is the better cash-game play if you want to pay up, and Jokic could be a low-owned pivot.
Value
Cavs coach Larry Drew has decided to play two bigs for a big chunk of the game, which has helped not only Nance but also Tristan Thompson. The latter has hit value in four of his last six games and has averaged a +5.85 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his last 10. Thompson is projected for 32.5 minutes on Tuesday night and should dominate the boards down low against the Hornets, who can’t compete with bigger bodies.
Fast Break
If you don’t want to roster the guys listed above, you’ll have to take a risk on someone unlikely to hit 20 minutes of action. Some options are Alex Len, who scored 34.25 DraftKings points last game and uncharacteristically got 26.5 minutes, or perhaps Mason Plumlee, who is essentially min-priced and has proven capable of putting up nice production in limited minutes. It’s a tough slate for centers beyond the three listed above, so I wouldn’t go too crazy.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Kevin Durant and James Harden
Photo credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
