The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
No point guard on Friday’s slate has been more productive this season than Kemba Walker. He’s averaged 1.3 FanDuel points per minute, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +3.37 through his first 11 games. He remains affordable at $8,600 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Walker also has an excellent spot against the 76ers. Philly has played at one of the fastest paces in the league, giving Walker an Opponent Plus/Minus of + 2.88. He leads all players at the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Value
Kyrie Irving will miss Friday’s game to attend his grandfather’s memorial service, which means that Terry Rozier will likely enter the starting lineup. Rozier averaged just under 32 DraftKings points per game with Irving out of the lineup last season, which would make him an excellent value at $4,900.
Rozier does have a difficult matchup against the Jazz, but they haven’t been nearly as intimidating on the end of the floor this season: Utah ranks just 16th in defensive efficiency. Rozier has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.17.
Fast Break
Jeff Teague remains out, so we can continue to fire up Derrick Rose. He’s averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute this season and is currently projected for 35.5 minutes in our Models. He remains an excellent value on FanDuel, where his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Darren Collison could be an interesting buy-low candidate. He’s coming off an awful performance in his last game but is in one of the best spots of the day against the Heat. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +11.28 on DraftKings, and he’s priced quite fairly across the industry.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Victor Oladipo is starting to get rolling, scoring at least 46.9 FanDuel points in three of his past four games. That said, his price has not budged on FanDuel, and his $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75% for Friday’s contest against the Heat.
Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Victor Oladipo
The Pacers are in one of the biggest pace up spots of the day, and Oladipo averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.24 on FanDuel with a comparable pace differential over the past two seasons (per the Trends tool). He also owns a solid individual matchup as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.86.
Value
There are some strong value options at SG today, and Marcus Smart leads the way. No one on the Celtics saw a bigger usage bump than Smart with Irving off the floor last season, resulting in an average of 0.85 DraftKings points per minute. Smart has produced at a similar per-minute basis with Irving off the floor this season, and is currently projected for 28.7 minutes. He’s a particularly strong value on DraftKings, where his $4,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
Buddy Hield continues to produce, posting a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in six of his past seven games. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season, and the Kings’ implied team total of 113.5 ranks fourth on the slate. He’s a nice value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Iman Shumpert could also have some fantasy viability for the Kings. He’s averaged 0.82 FanDuel points per minute this season, and could see a few additional minutes with Bogdan Bogdanovic getting the night off. Shumpert is priced just $200 above the minimum on FanDuel.
Jaylen Brown might be the preferred target for the Celtics on FanDuel at $5,000. He’s been a bit of a forgotten man this season but has managed to record a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games. He should see a bump in both workload and usage with Irving out of the lineup.
Small Forward
Stud
Josh Richardson might not be considered a stud quite yet, but he’s well on his way toward earning that status with his play to begin the season. He’s seen a large bump in usage, ranking third on the team at 24.3%, a number that could be significantly higher on Friday’s slate.
The Heat will be without both Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade, and Richardson has posted a team-high usage rate of 27.9% with both players off the floor this season. The result is an average of 1.01 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s currently projected for more than 36 minutes in our NBA Models.
Value
Justise Winslow looks like one of the top values at the position on FanDuel. He’ll likely draw the start at PG with Dragic out of the lineup, and he’s averaged over 32 FanDuel points in his first two games with Dragic on the sidelines this season. He’s also seen the second-largest usage bump on the team with both Dragic and Wade off the floor.
Fast Break
Taurean Prince has been priced down to $5,600 on DraftKings, which represents a decrease of $1,500 from its peak. He’s been an excellent producer this season, averaging 1.01 DraftKings points per minute, and he played more than 31 minutes in his most recent contest. He’s in a great spot against the Pistons as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.44.
It’s impossible to trust anyone on the Wizards right now — they’re close to the gold standard in World Wide Wob’s dysfunction rankings — but it’s hard not to like Otto Porter Jr. at $5,200 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and Porter is coming off 44.5 fantasy points in his last game.
Power Forward
Studs
Blake Griffin has reaffirmed his superstar status and is currently averaging career-bests in points, rebounds and assists per game. He’s in a potential smash spot against the Hawks, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season. They also rank in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency, which is a delicious combo to target for daily fantasy basketball.
Griffin owns an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.55 on FanDuel, and the Pistons’ implied team total of 115.25 ranks third on the slate. He’s a particularly strong option on FanDuel, where his $9,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Aaron Gordon is also in a nice spot at PF. He’s taking on the Wizards, who rank just 27th in defensive efficiency this season, and Gordon owns an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +9.77 on DraftKings. He’s also benefited from the absence of Jonathan Isaac, averaging a Plus/Minus of +8.4 in three games with him out of the lineup this season. Gordon has been priced up to $7,500 on DraftKings, but his salary still results in a Bargain Rating of 66%.
Value
Taj Gibson has been balling, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.11 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute and is coming of a season-high 37.5 minutes in his most recent contest. He’s currently projected for 32.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which would make him an excellent value at his current salary across the industry.
Fast Break
The way the Kings are handling Marvin Bagley is pretty baffling, but he’s been productive when he’s been on the court. He’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute, so he doesn’t need to play much to potentially return value at $4,500 on DraftKings.
Dario Saric saw a nice bump in playing time in his last game, playing a little less than 36 minutes with Mike Muscala out of the lineup. He’s projected for a similar workload against the Hornets, and the 76ers’ implied team total of 116 points ranks second on the slate.
Center
Stud
Jimmy Butler’s status for Friday is unknown, and his absence would result in a big bump for Karl-Anthony Towns.
Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Karl-Anthony Towns
Towns has averaged approximately 47 DraftKings points per game with Butler out of the lineup this season, and the Timberwolves are in an elite spot against the Kings. Their implied team total of 116.5 is the top mark on the slate, and Towns owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.04. He’s also one of the better values on DraftKings, where his $8,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Dwight Howard still might not be able to sit down — apparently he’s eating ribs while laying in bed these days — but it hasn’t really limited him on the basketball court. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute and has played at least 30.5 minutes in each of his past two games. He’s in a nice spot against the Magic, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.79, and his $6,000 salary on DraftKings results in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
Myles Turner has been a big disappointment this season, but the fact that he played more than 30 minutes in his last game is encouraging for his prospects moving forward. He’s seen big price decreases across the industry and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.88 on FanDuel.
This could be a good time to buy low on Nikola Vucevic. He’s failed to return value in each of his past three games but continues to play close to 32 minutes on most nights. He’s averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute this season, so his production should bounce back as long as the playing time continues to be there.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Terry Rozier
Photo credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
