Which running backs have the most favorable fantasy matchups? Which backs should you consider sitting?
Here’s a breakdown of five notable running backs featured in Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon and Matthew Freedman’s Week 10 fantasy football rankings.
The No. 1 RB
Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams
It’s going to be difficult to dethrone Gurley from his No. 1 rank most weeks considering he’s on one of the most efficient offenses in the league.
The Rams are scoring on 51% of their drives, which is the third-highest mark in the league, and he’s running behind PFF’s No. 1 ranked offensive line in run blocking.
Gurley has a robust 41.1-point ceiling projection in our FantasyLabs Player Models.
The Most Favorable Matchups
Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers
Gordon didn’t appear hampered by his hamstring injury in Week 9 after he played 88% of the snaps for the Chargers and saw 17 touches. On deck is a Raiders defense that is terrible in all facets of the game, possessing the fifth-worst run-defense grade, per Pro Football Focus.
Gordon carries an average rank of 4.0 among our rankers.
Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns
The Falcons are one of five teams that allowed 10 or more touchdowns on the ground this season. PFF grades the Falcons with the sixth-worst run defense, which could bode well for Chubb, who has seen a massive workload increase following the Carlos Hyde trade.
Since the Carlos Hyde trade (Week 7), Nick Chubb's 84% market share of carries is the highest carry share among all running backs.
Next highest in that timeframe:
James Conner: 83%
Ezekiel Elliott: 80%
Saquon Barkley: 79.5%
Joe Mixon: 75.5%— Justin Bailey (@justinbailey32) November 6, 2018
Furthermore, the Falcons’ Cover 3 scheme allows pass-catching running backs to exploit them through the air. Duke saw a season-high nine targets under the new coaching regime. The Browns were in a negative game script for most of the game against the Chiefs — which benefitted Johnson — but hopefully it’s a sign of things to come.
Chubb (19.7) and Duke (24.0) are both solid RB2/Flex plays, carrying average ranks inside the top 25.
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
Barkley’s 21.1 touches per game ranks fourth among all running backs this season, and his 8.9 targets per game ranks second. That’s important because targets are more valuable than carries, and the Giants possess the 11th-worst run-blocking unit, per PFF. Even so, the 49ers’ run defense isn’t much better, ranking 29th in PFF’s run defense grades.
Barkley’s median projection in our FantasyLabs Player Models trails only Gurley. He’s the unanimous No. 2 RB for Week 10.
Matchup Downgrade
LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills
The Jets rank eighth in PFF’s run-defense grades, but the Bills offense has been absurdly bad this season. McCoy has just 453 yards of total offense, and he’s rushed for just 23 yards on his past 22 carries — good for 1.04 yards per carry.
Moreover, the Bills check in as 7.5-point underdogs this week, and they’re implied for a slate-low 14.5 points.
Want another edge? Be sure to keep up with the week’s news on FantasyLabs.
