The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a four-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guards
Studs
Kemba Walker has come back to reality recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his past three games. That said, he has a butter-soft matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, who have played at the fastest pace and rank in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency this season. The Hornets’ implied team total of 122 points is the top mark on the slate by a wide margin, and Walker owns an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.46. He’s an excellent target on FanDuel, where his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
The Wizards finally managed to record their second win of the season after beating the Knicks on Sunday. They’ll look to make it two in a row today vs. the Dallas Mavericks, who have been the fourth-worst defensive team in the league this season. John Wall is still priced at a discount at $8,800 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.58 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
Value
Dennis Smith Jr. has struggled a bit in his sophomore season, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.93 on DraftKings. However, his salary has decreased by $1,500 since the start of the year, which could make this an interesting buy-low spot. He has an excellent matchup vs. the Wizards, who rank just 25th in defensive efficiency, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.79 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Taurean Prince is out today for the Hawks, which should give Trae Young a big boost in fantasy value. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +8.5% with Prince off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.38 DraftKings points per minute.
D’Angelo Russell hasn’t seen the most consistent playing time this season, but he’s in an excellent spot vs. the Phoenix Suns. They’ve allowed the third-most points per 100 possessions, and Russell has still managed 1.04 DraftKings points per minute. He’s priced at just $6,000 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Eric Bledsoe has failed to return value in five straight games on FanDuel, causing his salary to drop to a season-low $7,100 vs. the Portland Trail Blazers. That said, he’s seen reduced minutes in a string of blowouts, and today’s game figures to be much closer. He’s averaged 1.13 FanDuel points per minute this season, so $7,100 is a nice price if he returns to his normal workload.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Devin Booker is priced at a discount on FanDuel at just $8,100, giving him a Bargain Rating of 81%. He’s averaged 1.09 FanDuel points per minute and is currently projected for 36.5 minutes in our NBA Models in a nice matchup vs. the Nets. Both of these teams have played on the slower side this season – which is why the total currently sits at a slate-low 218.5 – but both teams rank in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. He has 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, which is tied for the most at the position.
Bradley Beal has seen a $600 increase since the start of the season on DraftKings but still appears to be an excellent value at $7,600. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.68 with a comparable salary over the past two seasons, and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s also in an elite spot vs. the Mavs, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +8.21. He should be a staple of cash-game lineups on DraftKings.
Value
Malcolm Brogdon is a low-ceiling, high-floor type of player, and he’s worthy of some consideration today on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $5,000, giving him a Bargain Rating of 75%. He’s averaged 0.78 FanDuel points per minute and is currently projected for 33.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which gives him one of the higher Plus/Minus projections at the SG position.
Fast Break
Kent Bazemore is another member of the Hawks who should benefit from the absence of Prince. He’s seen a usage bump of +4.4% with him off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.08 DraftKings points per minute. He could see a few additional minutes vs. the Hawks, which makes him an excellent target at $5,900 on DraftKings.
Allen Crabbe is playing less minutes than he did last season for the Nets and has struggled to an average Plus/Minus of -2.63. That said, he’s seen a price decrease of $1,400 on FanDuel over that time frame, which could make him an interesting buy-low target at $3,800. He’s shot just 25.7% from the field and 28.3% from 3-point range, so he’s poised for some positive regression moving forward.
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Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the most-expensive player at the SF position by a massive margin on today’s slate. He’s priced at $12,800 on FanDuel and $12,600 on DraftKings, and he’s been worth every penny to start the season: He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.76 DraftKings points per minute. The only thing that’s stopped him from returning value recently has been reduced minutes in blowouts, but the Bucks are just a one-point favorite today vs. the Blazers. He has the highest ceiling, median and floor projections by approximately 10 points and should be the highest-owned player on the slate.
Value
Otto Porter has been priced down to just $5,100 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s in a nice spot vs. the Mavericks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.44, and he played roughly 38 minutes in his last full game before injuring his toe. He may not play that much today – he’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models – but he can still potentially return value at his reduced price tag.
Fast Break
Vince Carter could also see a few additional minutes for the Hawks and has seen a usage bump of +3.7% with Prince off the court this season. He’s returned value in five of his past six games, so he could be an interesting punt play at a near-minimum salary across the industry.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is coming off the bench and playing less minutes this season, but that hasn’t stopped him from being a strong fantasy asset. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.01 on FanDuel thanks to an average of 1.07 fantasy points per minute, yet his salary has actually decreased by $400 over that time frame. He could be useful in a nice matchup vs. the Hawks.
Power Forward
Value
There are no studs at the PF position today – every option is priced at $5,500 or less on FanDuel – so let’s jump straight into the value tier.
Marvin Williams has been priced down to just $3,900 and could be an interesting target vs. the Hawks. It’s an excellent individual matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.08 on FanDuel, and he’s averaged 0.78 fantasy points per minute this season. He doesn’t need to play much to potentially return value.
Ersan Ilyasova could be an interesting value target on DraftKings, where his $4,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games.
Fast Break
Al Farouq-Aminu is priced at $5,100 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 90% vs. the Bucks. It’s a tough matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.20, but Aminu scored at least 32.0 FanDuel points in two straight games prior to playing just 23 minutes in a blowout win on Sunday.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has averaged 1.00 FanDuel point per minute this season but has averaged just 22.1 minutes per game. That number figures to increase as the season progresses, so this could be an interesting time to buy low on him. His salary has decreased by $1,400 since the start of the season, and he owns the highest ceiling projection at the position on today’s slate.
Center
Stud
DeAndre Jordan has seen a slight decrease in usage as a member of the Mavericks, but his proficiency on the glass has allowed him to maintain fantasy value. He’s averaged 14.1 rebounds per game, resulting in an average of 1.13 DraftKings points per minute. He’s coming off two straight poor games, which has created some value with his salary on DraftKings: His $7,900 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Jarrett Allen looks like one of the strongest values of the day on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $5,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s in a potential smash spot against the Suns. They’ve been crushed by opposing centers all season, giving Allen an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.25 on DraftKings. His playing time has fluctuated this season, but he doesn’t need to play many minutes given his average of 1.07 DraftKings points per minute.
Fast Break
Brook Lopez looks like one of the better values at the position on FanDuel. He’s been priced down to just $4,700 and has averaged 0.85 fantasy points per minute this season, which makes him an interesting target in a good matchup vs. the Blazers. He hasn’t played much recently but should return to closer to 30 minutes if today’s game stays competitive.
Deandre Ayton has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute and leads the position with 10 Pro Trends. He’s also affordable at $7,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Trae Young (11)
Photo credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
