The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook dominated the Wizards in his last game, scoring 53.75 DraftKings points in just 26 minutes of playing time. He’s increased his fantasy output to 1.64 DraftKings points per minute, which is the top mark on the slate.
He’s in a fantastic spot today vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, who rank sixth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency this season. The Thunder are implied for 120.5 points, the top mark on today’s slate. Westbrook also has an excellent individual matchup (Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.30 on DraftKings).
He’s priced at a discount at just $11,100 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
Ish Smith could be an appealing value option if Reggie Bullock misses today’s contest. The Pistons are in a good spot vs. the Miami Heat, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.38 on FanDuel, and Smith has played at least 28.5 minutes in each of his past two games.
He’s a slightly better value on FanDuel, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 60%.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games and has averaged a respectable 0.89 FanDuel points per minute this season. He has a difficult matchup on paper vs. Toronto, but the Jazz could be catching the Raptors at a good time: They’re on the second-leg of a back-to-back and could be without Kawhi Leonard. The Jazz will also be without Donovan Mitchell, and Rubio has seen a team-high usage bump of 6.4% with Mitchell off the floor this season.
D.J. Augustin could be an interesting punt play on today’s slate. The Magic are going to be without Jonathan Isaac, and Augustin has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute with Isaac off the floor this season. He also has an elite matchup vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have been the worst team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency.
Augustin has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +8.18 on DraftKings and is priced at just $4,100.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden has been a bit of a disappointment this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of -4.06 on DraftKings. That said, better things should be coming in the future. He remains the focal point of the Rockets offense and currently ranks second in the league in usage rate and fourth in assist rate.
The Rockets seem like a prime candidate for some positive regression moving forward – they rank just 24th in offensive efficiency after ranking second last season – which should give Harden’s fantasy stock a major boost.
He could be an interesting buy-low target today vs. the Indiana Pacers. It’s a difficult individual matchup vs. Victor Oladipo, who was the second-best defender in the league per Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) last season. That said, Harden can go off against anyone – he averaged 59.63 DraftKings points per game against the Pacers last season – and he’s projected for just 5-8% ownership on DraftKings.
On the other side of the same matchup, Oladipo looks like a strong option. He leads all players at the position with 12 Pro Trends, and his matchup vs. the Rockets results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.96. He’s priced at just $8,200 on DraftKings, and Oladipo averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.35 with a comparable salary last season (per the Trends tool).
Value
Damyean Dotson failed to post a positive Plus/Minus yesterday vs. the Wizards but has been a nice source of value recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +7.00 on DraftKings over his past seven games. He’s averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute this season, and is currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models.
Dotson has a nice matchup vs. the Chicago Bulls, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.82. Tim Hardaway Jr. is also questionable, which could give Dotson an even larger workload.
Fast Break
Grayson Allen drew the start the last time that Mitchell was out of lineup and totaled 27 minutes of playing time. He wasn’t particularly effective, scoring just 11.5 DraftKings points, but it’s hard to ignore someone projected for that much playing priced at the dead minimum across the industry.
Terrence Ross is coming off a season-high 31.5 minutes with Isaac out of the lineup in his last game and has averaged 0.92 FanDuel points per minute. He’s still very affordable in an excellent matchup vs. the Chicago Bulls, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.45 on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Stud
The game between the Thunder and Pelicans figures to be the best of the day from a fantasy perspective. The Pelicans have played at the fastest pace in the league this season, and the over/under of 237 is nearly 10 points higher than every other game on the slate.
One player who stands out is Nikola Mirotic. He’s averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute, which is only slightly lower than what Kevin Durant and Leonard have averaged this season. That said, he’s priced at discount compared to both, and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.77 is the top mark at the position.
Value
Stanley Johnson has played at least 30 minutes in three straight games and is currently projected for 30.5 minutes on today’s slate. He’s averaged just 0.65 DraftKings points per minute but is priced at just $3,700 on DraftKings. He’s in an excellent spot vs. the Miami Heat, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.88.
Fast Break
The Heat are going to be without Hassan Whiteside today, which could give Josh Richardson a slight boost from a fantasy perspective. Richardson has averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his $7,300 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Justise Winslow could be another member of the Heat worth considering. He’s averaged 1.05 FanDuel points per minute this season and could see a few additional minutes with Whiteside out of the lineup.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is expected to play today after returning to the lineup Saturday vs. the San Antonio Spurs. He didn’t exactly thrive in that matchup, posting a Plus/Minus of -7.58 on FanDuel, but the fact that he played more than 39.5 minutes is encouraging for him moving forward.
He should have a much easier time of things today vs. the Thunder, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.00. No one on the slate is projected for more than his 39.5 minutes, and his average of 1.61 FanDuel points per minute is tied with Westbrook for the top mark on the slate.
His salary has decreased by $600 over the past month, as well, which makes this an excellent opportunity to buy low on him. It’s actually feasible to jam both Davis and Westbrook into your cash lineup on FanDuel given the number of potential value options, and the fact that they drop your lowest score only increases the appeal of going that route.
Value
Jabari Parker has averaged approximately 35 minutes of playing time over his past three games, culminating with a season-high 40.5 minutes in his most recent contest. He hasn’t fared well over that time frame, but all that playing time is encouraging for his fantasy prospects moving forward.
Parker has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his $5,700 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
Blake Griffin seems underpriced on FanDuel at $9,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s posted the best fantasy numbers of his career to start the season, averaging 48.43 FanDuel points and a +6.72 Plus/Minus over his first eight games. Griffin is in another good spot today vs. the Miami Heat (Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.85).
Kelly Olynyk hasn’t seen the most consistent playing time of late, playing 21.5 minutes or fewer in each of his past three games, but could see a slightly larger workload with Whiteside out of the lineup. He’s averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his $4,800 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Center
Stud
Jimmy Butler will likely be back in the lineup today vs. the Los Angeles Clippers after sitting out the first half of a back-to-back, but the Wolves could still be without Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose. That would open up some usage for Karl-Anthony Towns, who has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute this season.
He’s in a nice spot today, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.75, and the game between the Timberwolves and Clippers has the second-highest total on the slate. Towns leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
There’s an abundance of strong value options at the center position on today’s slate.
It start with everyone’s favorite caveman, Boban Marjanovic. He’s averaged an elite 1.52 DraftKings points per minute and entered the starting lineup in the Clippers’ last game. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.96 on DraftKings, and his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Bam Adebayo might be the preferred value option on FanDuel, where his $3,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He played more than 30.5 minutes in his most recent contest and has averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute this season. Adebayo’s matchup vs. the Pistons isn’t quite as good as Boban’s but still results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.22 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Julius Randle will likely be an afterthought with Anthony Davis back in the lineup, but he’s still seen a healthy role even when The Brow is active. He’s averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his $6,300 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Myles Turner has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Houston Rockets, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +10.60 on DraftKings. Thaddeus Young is expected to play despite dealing with an illness, but Turner could still see a few additional minutes if he’s limited.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Russell Westbrook (0) and Anthony Davis (23)
Photo credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
