The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s NBA main slate differs by site: DraftKings offers a six-game slate starting at 6:00 p.m. ET while FanDuel offers a four-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
The Wizards have been an unmitigated disaster to start the season, dropping seven of their first eight games and getting booed off the court at home in their most recent contest. That said, they’re in a good spot to right the ship today as 7.5-point favorites vs. the New York Knicks. Their implied team total of 116.5 is the third-highest mark on the slate, and the Knicks are a mediocre defensive squad.
John Wall looks like a nice potential value at $8,800 on DraftKings (Bargain Rating of 86% in our Models). He’s averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute, but his overall fantasy production has been held down by a string of blowouts. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.01 with a comparable salary over the past four seasons (per the Trends tool), so better days should be coming in the future.
Mike Conley has been fantastic recently, putting up a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games. He’s in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Phoenix Suns, who currently rank is the second-worst team in terms of defensive efficiency. The Grizzlies’ implied team total of 107.5 doesn’t jump off the page, but it does represent an increase of nearly three points when compared to their season average (104.6).
Conley has also historically crushed the Suns, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.66 over 10 previous contests. He’s a better value on FanDuel, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Value
The Timberwolves have the potential to be really shorthanded at PG today, with Jeff Teague already ruled out and Derrick Rose currently listed as questionable. Tyus Jones saw a massive workload in their last contest, playing more than 40 minutes vs. the Warriors, and could see a similar amount of playing time if Rose is inactive today. He’s in an excellent spot vs. the Portland Trail Blazers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.09 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Frank Ntilikina has been playing big minutes for the Knicks, who have committed to playing their young players this season. He’s averaged just 0.67 DraftKings points per minute but still seems fairly priced at $4,300 on DraftKings. He’s in a nice spot vs. the Wizards (Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.52).
D’Angelo Russell has seen a reduction in playing time this season but is still capable of putting up points in a short timeframe. He has a solid matchup vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, who have been shredded by opposing PGs this season. Russell’s $5,700 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
DeMar DeRozan may not have been happy to leave the Toronto Raptors for the San Antonio Spurs in the offseason, but he’s putting together the best season of his career for his new team. He’s averaging career-bests in both points per game and assists per game through his first eight contests, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +9.01 on DraftKings. He’s only failed to return value in two contests, and that was only because he saw reduced playing time in blowout situations.
DeRozan appears to be in a decent spot today vs. the Orlando Magic, who have been below average in terms of defensive efficiency this season. As long as this game stays competitive – the Spurs are currently listed as 8.5-point favorites – it’s hard not to like him at $8,900 on DraftKings.
Value
Damyean Dotson is another member of the Knicks who’s seeing big minutes at the moment. He played a season-high 36.5 in his most recent contest, and unlike Ntilikina, he’s actually averaged a respectable 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season. The Wizards rank just 28th in defensive efficiency this season, so it’s a good spot for Dotson as well.
Fast Break
Andrew Wiggins is typically tough to roster in daily fantasy basketball because of his lack of peripherals, but he could see a boost in usage for the shorthanded Wolves today. Jimmy Butler is sitting out today’s game, which could leave Minnesota without three of its highest-usage players. That should result in increased scoring opportunities for Wiggins, albeit against an above-average Trail Blazers’ defense.
Devin Booker returned from a hamstring injury in the Suns’ last game and showed no ill effects, playing 35 minutes and scoring 34.8 FanDuel points in a tough matchup vs. the Raptors. He has another difficult matchup today vs. the Grizzlies, but his 10 Pro Trends are still tied for the most at the position on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James has failed to return value in each of his past two contests on DraftKings, but he’s still averaged 1.55 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s been priced down to just $10,600 on DraftKings in anticipation of a difficult matchup vs. the Raptors, but the matchup may not be as tough as it seems on paper: Kawhi Leonard is expected to sit either today or tomorrow in a back-to-back situation, and LeBron would have a much easier individual matchup with Leonard out of the lineup. This could be a nice opportunity to buy low on one of the best players in the game.
Value
Kyle Anderson has yet to provide much fantasy value as a member of the Grizzlies, but at least he’s starting to see more consistent playing time. He’s played at least 28 minutes in three of his past four games, which bodes well for his stock moving forward. He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Suns and remains affordable across the industry.
Fast Break
Otto Porter is currently listed as questionable vs. the Knicks with a toe injury, and his absence would likely result in Kelly Oubre entering the starting lineup. Oubre has been a strong value recently, exceeding salary-based expectations in five of his past six games, so he would become a strong value play given the chance to play extended minutes.
Phoenix is another team dealing with injuries: TJ Warren is currently listed as questionable after missing Saturday’s shootaround. Trevor Ariza hasn’t been a great fantasy producer this season, averaging 0.69 DraftKings points per minute, but has seen at least 34.5 minutes in four of his past six contests.
Power Forward
Stud
The stud options are a bit thin at the PF position on today’s slate. LaMarcus Aldridge is the only player with a salary above $8,000 on FanDuel, and he’s failed to post a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. That said, he did command a usage rate of 33.1% in his most recent contest and scored 24 points in just 24 minutes of playing time. Aldridge is currently projected for 37 minutes of playing time in our NBA Models and has averaged 1.14 FanDuel points per minute this season. That combination of playing time and production would make him a nice value at $8,100 on FanDuel.
Value
Al-Farouq Aminu has put together back-to-back big games for the Blazers, scoring at least 32.0 FanDuel points in both. He’s priced at a discount on FanDuel at $5,100 and has a nice matchup today vs. the Timberwolves. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.54. The Blazers’ implied team total of 118.25 ranks second on the slate.
Fast Break
Noah Vonleh was acquired by the Knicks in the offseason and has now played for four different teams in his first five seasons. That’s rare for a lottery pick, but it seems like he may have finally found a home in New York. He’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute and has played upwards of 32.5 minutes recently before struggling with foul trouble in his most recent contest. He looks like a strong option at $4,900 on DraftKings (Bargain Rating of 93%).
Ryan Anderson came off the bench in the Suns’ last game but still managed to play more than 25 minutes. He’s really struggled this season, averaging just 0.59 FanDuel points per minute, but Anderson has shot a paltry 34.8% from the field and 25.0% from 3-point range. He could be a nice value at a near-minimum salary across the industry if he sees some regression with his shooting numbers.
Center
Stud
The center position looks to be one of the strongest on today’s slate. It starts at the top with Karl-Anthony Towns, who scored at least 62.2 FanDuel points in back-to-back games before struggling vs. the Warriors in his most recent contest. He should see a major bump in value with Butler sitting out today’s game; Towns has a nice matchup vs. the Portland Trail Blazers. He’s particularly appealing at $8,600 on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
Mitchell Robinson put together the best game of his young career in his last outing, scoring 39.5 DraftKings points in 34 minutes of playing time. He remains affordable at just $4,100 on DraftKings, although he does have a somewhat difficult matchup vs. Dwight Howard and the Wizards.
Fast Break
Marc Gasol has scored at least 40.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, and he has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Phoenix Suns. They’ve been absolutely crushed by opposing centers this season, giving Gasol an Opponent Plus/Minus of +13.71 on DraftKings.
Consistent playing time is always an issue for Jusuf Nurkic, but he appears to be in a good spot today against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Blazers figure to need his size against Towns, and Nurkic has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s priced at just $7,100 on FanDuel and has scored at least 31.8 FanDuel points in each of his past three games.
Finally, Jarrett Allen might be one of the best pure values of the day at just $5,000 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99% vs. the 76ers, who have actually been one of the worst teams in the league against opposing centers this season. Allen will need to avoid foul trouble against Joel Embiid – which is always an issue – but he’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: LeBron James
Photo credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
