The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook is coming off his best game of the season, scoring 56.0 DraftKings points in a difficult matchup against the Clippers. He remains priced at a discount on DraftKings at $10,700, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99%; he’s posted a Plus/Minus of +1.44 with a comparable salary over the past two seasons (per the Trends tool). Westbrook has maintained an astronomical usage rate, ranking second in the league at 34.1%, and the Thunder are playing at the third-fastest pace. The monster game is coming soon.
On the other side of the same matchup, it’s impossible to ignore what Kemba Walker has done this season. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.78 on DraftKings through his first eight games, thanks in part to ridiculous 10.9 3-point attempts per game. Walker is poised to shatter his previous career-highs in both points per game and usage, resulting in an average of 1.41 DraftKings points per minute. He’s been priced up by $1,200 but still offers a slight discount when compared to the top PGs on the slate.
Value
De’Aaron Fox has one of the best matchups of the slate against the Hawks as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.85 on DraftKings. They’ve played at the fastest pace in the league, and the Kings’ implied team total of 117.5 is tied for the top mark on the slate. Fox is currently projected for 32.8 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute, which would make him a nice value at $6,700.
Fast Break
Damian Lillard is definitely in consideration for the top PG spot on FanDuel. He’s priced at $9,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%, and he’s in an elite spot against the Pelicans. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +10.54, and the Blazers are implied for 117.5 points.
Tim Frazier entered the starting lineup for the Pelicans in place of the injured Elfrid Payton, who is currently listed as questionable for Thursday’s contest. He would be an interesting punt play at $3,600 if he draws another start.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jrue Holiday leads all SGs with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $7,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He started the season in a shooting funk but has busted out in a big way recently: He’s made 32-of-64 field goal attempts over his past four games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all four of those contests and has increased his fantasy production to 1.09 DraftKings points per minute. He’s one of the better values of the day.
Value
Is it possible that the Kings actually won the DeMarcus Cousins trade? They’ve won four games in a row, and Buddy Hield has balled out, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.60 to start the season. He remains affordable at $6,400 on DraftKings and has one of the best matchups of the day against the Hawks. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.80, which is the third-best mark at the SG position.
Fast Break
Lou Williams’ salary continues to decrease on FanDuel, and he’s down to just $5,000 for Thursday’s matchup against the 76ers. He’s not playing nearly as many minutes this season but has still managed to post a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games. He seems like a pretty safe investment at the moment and always has the potential to put up a monster game.
CJ McCollum has seen a price decrease on both DraftKings and FanDuel since the beginning of the season, which could make him an interesting buy-low candidate against the Pelicans. He’s struggled from a fantasy perspective this season but is shooting a career-low from the field. If he sees some positive regression in that department, he could be a nice value.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is in an interesting spot Thursday against the Celtics. On one hand, he’s been arguably the second-best player in daily fantasy basketball this season, averaging 1.71 FanDuel points per minute. He leads all players with 14 Pro Trends, and SFs with a comparable mark have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.41. His salary has also decreased by $500 since the start of the season, making him one of the best pure values to pay up for at $11,500 on FanDuel.
On the other hand, the Celtics have been the best defensive team in basketball since the start of last season. They rank first in defensive efficiency for the second straight season, giving Giannis an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.71. The Bucks also have the second-lowest implied team total on the slate at 109.0 points.
Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Still, Giannis is basically matchup-proof at this point, and he averaged 57.8 FanDuel points in three regular-season matchups against the Celtics last season. He currently leads the league in usage rate and piles up peripheral statistics better than anyone in basketball, so it’s tough not to like him even in a difficult matchup.
Value
E’Twuan Moore delivered in a big way yesterday, scoring 34.8 FanDuel points in roughly 39 minutes. I wouldn’t expect the same level of fantasy production on Thursday, but the workload is real: He’s projected for 34.5 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s averaged just 0.73 FanDuel points per minute this season, but it’s hard to ignore that kind of playing time at $4,400.
Fast Break
It’s hard to trust Nemanja Bjelica with the way the Kings’ have handled their rotation all season, but he seems pretty locked in at the moment. He’s scored at least 39.0 DraftKings points in four straight games thanks to an average of 1.2 DraftKings points per minute. His shooting numbers don’t seem sustainable in the long term — he’s shot 58.2% from the field and 54.5% from 3-point range — but he can potentially regress slightly and still return value at $6,200 on DraftKings.
Danilo Gallinari has averaged 1.12 FanDuel points per minute this season, but his playing time has been stemmed by a string of blowout wins and losses recently. He’ll likely return to 30+ minutes of playing time assuming the Clippers play another competitive game at some point this season, and his 81% Bargain Rating on FanDuel is tied for the top mark at the position.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis struggled in his first game back from injury, tallying just 45.5 DraftKings points in 41 minutes. The minutes were encouraging after he missed two games with an elbow injury, but it could hurt him slightly on the second leg of a back-to-back. Davis hasn’t exactly crushed in back-to-back situations in the past, averaging a Plus/Minus of -0.02 on DraftKings over the past three seasons, and the Pelicans might not want to push him too hard because of his previous injury history.
That said, it’s tough not to like him against the Trail Blazers. It’s an excellent individual matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.66, and Davis has averaged over 60 DraftKings points per game against the Blazers over the past two seasons (excluding one game where he left early due to injury). He also looks like a better value than Giannis on DraftKings, where his $11,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
The PF position is pretty thin outside of Davis on Thursday’s slate. Despite not playing big minutes for the Celtics this season, Marcus Morris has been very productive when on the floor, averaging 0.98 FanDuel points per minute. He’s affordable at $4,700 on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
Al-Farouq Aminu could make sense for those paying down at PF on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,000 and is projected for 29 minutes on Thursday’s slate, and Aminu has historically posted a Plus/Minus of +7.21 with comparable marks in both categories.
Dario Saric has struggled mightily this season, posting a positive Plus/Minus in just three of his first eight games. That said, he’s seen a price decrease of $1,200 on FanDuel and is still playing at least 30 minutes on most nights. He could be an interesting buy-low candidate against the Clippers.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid is just about the most consistent player in daily fantasy basketball. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 82% over the past year on DraftKings, and the only time he failed to post a positive Plus/Minus this season was in a blowout win against the Hawks. He has a nice matchup against the Clippers as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.75, and his $10,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Value
Cody Zeller is not playing big minutes for the Hornets, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games. Despite that, has salary has actually decreased since the start of the season on DraftKings, which makes him a nice source of savings against the Thunder. They haven’t been great against opposing centers this season, giving Zeller an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.45 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Willie Cauley-Stein was slightly disappointing in his last game, but the fact that he played nearly 30 minutes is encouraging. He’s averaged 1.17 FanDuel points per minute, so he should bounce back if he continues to play big minutes.
Nikola Jokic is basically the anti-Embiid: He typically either crushes or fails to hit his value. He’s been awesome on the surface — his average of 1.62 FanDuel points per minute is only slightly lower than the rates for Giannis and Davis — but Jokic has still failed to return value in five of his first seven games. He’s always in play for guaranteed prize pools, but he’s impossible to trust for cash games.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Buddy Hield
Photo credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
