NBA Breakdown (Wed. 10/31): It’s Karl-Anthony Towns’ Time to Shine

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Wednesday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

Steph Curry wasn’t really needed in the Warriors’ last game, as they scored 149 points on the back of a monster performance from Klay Thompson. Curry ultimately played just 25 minutes, but that didn’t stop him from dropping 51.1 FanDuel points.

He’s in an elite spot today vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +10.07 on FanDuel. The Pelicans have played at the second-fastest pace this season, and the Warriors’ implied team total of 124 points is the top mark on the slate. The only real question is whether or not the Pelicans can keep this game competitive: They’re currently 10-point underdogs, and the Warriors have outscored their opponents by an average of 13.5 points per game this season

Value

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be without both Jeff Teague and Jimmy Butler on today’s slate, which could lead to a big role for Derrick Rose. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +10.9% with both players off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.39 DraftKings points per minute. He has a difficult matchup vs. the Utah Jazz, who ranked second in the league in defensive efficiency last season, but that kind of production is impossible to ignore at just $4,900 on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Dennis Smith Jr. has seen a price decrease of $1,100 to start the season on DraftKings, but has posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.31 over his past three games. The Mavs are in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Los Angeles Lakers, who have played at the third-fastest pace the season. It results in a pace differential of +5.2 for DSJ, who has historically posted a Plus/Minus of +5.78 in comparable pace-up spots (per the Trends tool).

D’Angelo Russell looks like one of the best values at the position on DraftKings, where his $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s seen a slight decrease in production this season, averaging just 1.02 DraftKings points per minute, but has still managed a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games.

Shooting Guard

Studs

DeMar DeRozan may have changed uniforms in the offseason, but one thing that hasn’t changed is his ability to get buckets. The move to San Antonio has actually given his fantasy stock a major boost: He’s currently averaging career highs in both points per game (28.3) and assists per game (8.0).

His salary has increased by $1,400 since the start of the season on FanDuel, but he still looks like a nice value vs. the Phoenix Suns. They currently rank 28th in defensive efficiency after finishing 30th last season, and no one at the position is projected for more minutes than DeRozan in our NBA Models. He should see plenty of opportunities to carve them up.

Jrue Holiday has busted out of his shooting slump, making 51.1% of his field-goal attempts over his past three games. He’s unsurprisingly posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of them despite not seeing much of a usage bump with Anthony Davis out of the lineup. He remains priced at a discount on DraftKings, where his $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Value

E’Twuan Moore doesn’t offer much in terms of skill on the basketball court, but just showing up is half the battle in daily fantasy basketball. He’s currently projected for 34.5 minutes at just $4,100 on DraftKings, and players with comparable minute projections and salaries have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.56 and a Consistency Rating of 62.7%. He doesn’t offer much of a ceiling for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), but could be a nice source of savings for cash games.

Fast Break

Zach LaVine leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute through his first seven games and currently ranks second in the league with a usage rate of 34.3%. He has a difficult matchup vs. the Nuggets, but that could result in lower ownership than usual for GPPs.

Josh Okogie has been pretty impressive as a rookie, averaging 0.83 FanDuel points per minute. He seems likely to replace Butler in the starting lineup today and is currently projected for 30.5 minutes. He’s definitely worth some consideration at just $4,600 despite the tough matchup vs. the Jazz.

Small Forward

Studs

LeBron James had a slow start to his Lakers career, but it’s been business as usual for The King over his past five games. He’s scored at least 59.25 DraftKings points in four of those contests and has actually averaged more fantasy points per minute this season than he did in his final season with the Cavs.

He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Dallas Mavericks, who have allowed the fourth-most points per 100 possessions. The Lakers’ implied team total of 120.75 ranks second on the slate, and LeBron has a good individual matchup as well. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.69 is one of the higher marks among small forwards. He’s priced at a discount on DraftKings at $11,300, giving him a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Kevin Durant took just nine shots in his last contest and seemed fully content to ride the hot hand of Thompson. That said, it resulted in a salary decrease of $800 on DraftKings for today’s matchup vs. the Pelicans, which could make him an appealing buy-low candidate. He should return to his normal workload and has averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute. He’s nearly $2,000 cheaper than LeBron across the industry, which might make him the preferred elite small forward target on today’s slate.

Value

Stanley Johnson is coming off 34.5 minutes of playing time in yesterday’s contest vs. the Celtics, which could make him an appealing punt play at just $3,800 on DraftKings. The Pistons are in a much better spot today vs. the Brooklyn Nets, and Johnson averaged a respectable 0.70 DraftKings points per minute last season.

Fast Break

Rudy Gay is playing a little more than expected early in the season for the San Antonio Spurs. He’s seen at least 32.5 minutes in three of his past four games and has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute. He looks like a nice value at $6,100, especially in an excellent matchup vs. the Suns.

Andrew Wiggins is a game-time decision, but Tom Thibodeau told reporters after shoot around that he “should be ready” for tonight’s contest. He could potentially step right into a big role with Teague and Butler out of the lineup: Wiggins saw a usage bump of 5.6% and averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute with both players off the floor last season.

Power Forward

Stud

Davis has missed the Pelicans’ past two games, but will suit up vs. the Warriors. It’s hard not to like him at $11,400 on DraftKings considering that he has averaged of 1.80 DraftKings points per minute through his first four games. He’s also had a lot of success against the Warriors over the past two seasons, averaging 61.41 DraftKings points over 11 contests. He owns the highest median and ceiling projections on today’s slate, and frankly, it’s not even that close.

Value

Jabari Parker has been a nice source of value for the shorthanded Bulls recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.92 over his past four games on DraftKings. He’s expected to move into the starting lineup for tonight’s matchup vs. the Nuggets, which could result in a few extra minutes, as well. He’s one of the best values of the day at just $6,000 on DraftKings, evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Fast Break

Blake Griffin has spent the majority of the early season reminding people that he’s pretty darn good at basketball, when healthy. He’s scored at least 42.5 fantasy points in five of his first six games and remains affordable at just $8,800 on FanDuel for tonight’s matchup vs. the Brooklyn Nets.

Virtually everyone on the roster is in play tonight for the shorthanded Timberwolves, and Taj Gibson is no exception. He’s seen a massive usage boost with both Teague and Butler off the floor this season, and his $4,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Center

Stud

Karl-Anthony Towns has had a really disappointing start to his season, averaging career lows in minutes, points, and rebounds per game. That said, there are some reasons for optimism ahead. For starters, he’s actually posted a higher usage rate than he did last season, but his scoring numbers have been kept down by a subpar field-goal percentage (42.1%). He’s shot at least 54.2% from the field in each of his three previous NBA seasons, so he’s seems due for some positive regression.

That could start today with Teague and Butler on the sidelines: He averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute with both players off the floor last season. He’s also seen a salary decrease of $1,400 on DraftKings since the beginning of the season, which makes this an appealing buy-low opportunity.

Value

JaVale McGee has come back to reality a bit over his past few contests, but is still averaging 1.24 DraftKings points per minute. He should see plenty of minutes today to try to combat the size of DeAndre Jordan, and his $5,700 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Fast Break

Paying up for DeAndre Jordan is almost always a viable strategy in cash games, evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 100%. That said, he’s actually seen a price decrease of $100 on DraftKings since the start of the season, which makes him a particularly nice value today vs. the Lakers.

The Suns will be without Devin Booker today vs. the Spurs, which could make DeAndre Ayton an interesting target for GPPs. He’s been excellent this season, averaging 1.26 DraftKings points per minute, and no one on the Spurs can match his combination of size and quickness.

Good luck!

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.

Pictured above: Karl-Anthony Towns
Photo credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports