The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
The PG position is absolutely loaded on Tuesday’s slate.
It starts with Russell Westbrook, who looks like one of the best values at $10,500 on DraftKings. He’s struggled through his first three games, posting an average Plus/Minus of -2.45, but he’s historically posted a Plus/Minus of +2.88 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
That said, he does have a brutal matchup against the Clippers. The have some elite defenders at PG, giving Westbrook an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.42. He could have lower ownership than usual because of his recent production, which makes him an excellent target for guaranteed prize pools.
Ben Simmons was needed for only 27 minutes on Monday night, but that didn’t stop him from putting up 52.0 DraftKings points. He’s averaged an elite 1.47 DraftKings points per minute this season and leads all players at the position with 13 Pro Trends. He’s another excellent value on DraftKings: His $9,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chris Paul
Chris Paul is an easy choice for the top PG spot on FanDuel. He struggled in his first game with James Harden out of the lineup, posting a Plus/Minus of -12.19 against the Clippers. However, he should find things much easier on Tuesday against the Trail Blazers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.48.
Paul averaged 54.22 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with Harden off the court last season, which would make him an excellent value at $9,600.
Value
The value options are pretty thin at PG on Tuesday, but Reggie Jackson could be worth consideration.
Jackson has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his first five games, yet his salary has decreased by $600 over that time frame. His playing time is inconsistent — he’s played as many as 38.5 minutes and as few as 22.5 — but averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute last season.
Fast Break
It’s hard to find anyone performing at a higher level than Kemba Walker right now. He ranks second in the league with a usage rate of 35.4% and has attempted a ridiculous 11.3 3-pointers per game, which is a big part of the reason why he’s averaged 1.46 DraftKings points per minute. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.29 against the Heat, and he’s priced at a slight discount compared to the top PG options on the slate.
Trae Young will have his ups and downs this season, but it’s hard not to like him against the Cavaliers. Cleveland ranks dead last in defensive efficiency this season, and Young torched the Cavs for 55.9 FanDuel points in their first meeting. He’s priced at $7,100 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal is the only SG priced above $6,600 on FanDuel on Tuesday, which puts him in his own tier at the position. He’s a much better value on DraftKings, where his $6,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Beal has historically dominated with a comparable price tag, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.01 over the past three seasons. He has a tough matchup against the Grizzlies, who rank third in defensive efficiency and have played at the third-slowest pace, but he’s impossible to ignore at his current salary.
Value
The Kings have quietly won four of his their past five games, and Buddy Hield has been a big reason why. He’s scored at least 32.75 DraftKings points in each of his past three games and has played at least 35.5 minutes in all three.
Hield averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute last season, so it’s not surprising that he’s been productive with increased playing time. He remains affordable at $5,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
CJ McCollum has yet to get things going this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of -2.42 through his first six games on FanDuel. That said, he could be an excellent buy-low candidate against the Rockets, who have allowed the fourth-most points per 100 possessions in 2018.
Jeremy Lamb is priced at a discount on DraftKings at $4,600. He’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute and is currently projected for 27.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and his matchup against the Heat gives him an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.46.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard got the night off for the Raptors on Monday but should be back in the lineup against the 76ers. His transition to Toronto has been pretty seamless, and he’s scored at least 51.0 FanDuel points in each of his past two games.
Philadelphia isn’t a great target on the surface — the Sixers currently rank fifth in defensive efficiency — but the fact that they play at a fast pace can still make them an appealing matchup. Leonard owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.24 on FanDuel, which is one of the stronger marks at the position, and the Raptors’ implied team total of 116.75 ranks first on the slate.
Value
No one has seen a larger price decrease to start the season than Kyle Anderson. He’s priced at $3,900 for Tuesday’s matchup against the Wizards, which represents a decrease of $3,300 on FanDuel. He hasn’t been very productive this season, but he did average 0.90 FanDuel points per minute last season.
The Wizards are also an excellent matchup, giving Anderson an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.39. This could be a prime opportunity to buy low on him.
Fast Break
Danilo Gallinari is priced at $6,300 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93%. The Clippers haven’t needed him much over their past two games — they won both by at least 20 points — but Gallo should return to his normal workload against the Thunder. He’s averaged 1.09 FanDuel points per minute through his first six games.
Gerald Green played a little less than 23 minutes in his last contest and managed to turn that playing time into 27.75 DraftKings points. He should see a similar workload with Harden out of the lineup again on Tuesday and will likely be one of the most popular value options on the slate.
Power Forward
Stud
Blake Griffin got off to a fantastic start to the season, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first four games on DraftKings, but then delivered one of the biggest clunkers of the season against the Celtics. Unfortunately, Griffin will face Boston again on Tuesday, but it’s hard to see him having another disastrous performance.
Griffin shot just 2-for-13 from the field in his last game after shooting 55.7% over his first four. He leads all PFs with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and the fact that he bombed so badly in his last start could lower his ownership for GPPs.
Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jaren Jackson Jr.
Value
Jaren Jackson Jr. should get the opportunity to play big minutes for the Grizzlies because of the injury to JaMychal Green. Jackson struggled in his last game against the Suns, picking up five fouls in just 15 minutes, but that shouldn’t be an issue against the Wizards.
Jackson is currently projected for 30.5 minutes and has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute, which makes him one of the best values of the day at $5,500.
Fast Break
Carmelo Anthony has been priced up super aggressively on FanDuel but remains affordable at $5,300 on DraftKings. He’s seen a usage bump of +3.5% and averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute with Harden off the floor this season, and he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.19 against the Trail Blazers.
Serge Ibaka exploded for 45.3 FanDuel points with Leonard out of the lineup on Monday, but has quietly been getting the job done all season. He’s averaged 1.09 FanDuel points per minute, which makes up for the fact that he rarely sees more than 30 minutes of action. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.85 against the 76ers and is one of the best values at the position at $5,200 on FanDuel.
Center
Studs
Andre Drummond is another member of the Pistons who struggled in their most recent game, scoring just 32.1 FanDuel points against the Celtics. That said, he’s crushed the Celtics in the past, averaging 48.0 FanDuel points per game in seven matchups over the two previous seasons.
This could be an interesting opportunity to buy low on Drummond: His salary has decreased by at least $1,000 since the start of the season on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Joel Embiid also struggled in his last game, but he wasn’t really needed in a blowout win over the Hawks. He’s averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute, which is the top mark at the position, and has been one of the most consistent producers in fantasy over the past year.
Value
Jusuf Nurkic is an interesting GPP option. His minutes are so inconsistent, but he’s an elite producer on a per-minute basis. He also has an elite matchup against the Rockets as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +10.80 on DraftKings. If he sees toward the high end of his minute range, he could crush.
Fast Break
Willie Cauley-Stein has crushed in each of his past three games, averaging close to 34 minutes and 42.5 DraftKings points per game. He remains really affordable at $6,300 on DraftKings as evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Bradley Beal
Photo credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
