We’re officially in the second half of the 2018 NFL season, and we’re still on pace for a record-breaking campaign with an average of 24.1 points per game per team. The action continues with a 10-game main slate that kicks off on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.
Ordinarily in my positional breakdowns, I touch on every fantasy-relevant player, but starting now, I’m going to focus only on the players at the top of the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
I’m doing this for a few reasons:
- I’m lazy. I just freed up 20 hours in my schedule. Someone’s about to get back on #TeamSex.
- I’m hoping to make the breakdowns easier to consume, more actionable and less noisy.
- I’m looking to create more value for FantasyLabs members. To this point, I’ve provided as much information as I can for free to everyone. By being more judicious in what I share, I’ll ensure that Labs subscribers maintain their edge.
- I’m lazy. Really lazy.
Plus, on the Wednesday edition of The Action Network NFL Podcast, guest Evan Silva and I jokingly made a beer-backed wager as to whose treatise would be longer this week: His matchups column or my four-volume positional analysis.
I don’t want to brag — because it’s nothing to brag about — but the win was already mine by the time I started the third piece.
From here on, I’m just taking victory laps.
If you want more information on the rest of this week’s tight ends, subscribe to FantasyLabs, where you can access the large suite of analytical DFS tools I use to research every player.
For updates on Vegas spreads and over/unders, check out The Action Network Live Odds page.
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Model Tight Ends
This week, there are four DraftKings and FanDuel tight ends at the top of our individual Pro Models.
- Travis Kelce: $6,600 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel
- David Njoku: $4,600 DraftKings; $5,200 FanDuel
- Kyle Rudolph: $3,600 DraftKings; $5,700 FanDuel
- Ben Watson: $3,200 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel
Let’s start at the top of the salary scale and go down from there.
Travis Kelce: Kansas City Chiefs (-9) at Cleveland Browns, 52.5 Over/Under
UPDATE (11/4): Wide receiver Tyreek Hill (groin) isn’t listed on the injury report and is fully expected to play.
Kelce is coming off another typical “I’m great; call me Zeus” 6-79-1 receiving performance on 10 targets. Yawn.
Although they suffered their first defeat against the spread last week, the Chiefs have dominated this season. On a per-game basis, they have:
- Outscored their implied total by 8.7 points (No. 1 in NFL)
- Exceeded their game total by 8.9 points (No. 2)
- Surpassed their spread by 8.6 points (No. 1)
The Chiefs lead the league in scoring at 36.3 points per game, and Kelce is a key contributor to their success, leading the team with 70 receptions, 44 yards yards receiving and 297 yards after the catch. He ranks second with 642 yards receiving and 687 air yards. Within the slate, Kelce easily has position highs with all of those marks.
After a horrendous 1-6-0 receiving performance in Week 1, Kelce has lit it up, averaging 19.9 DraftKings points per game, and since 2016, Kelce leads all tight ends with his per-game average of 16.1 DraftKings points. In the short term and especially the long term, Kelce is crushing.
Additionally, Kelce has a great matchup against the Browns. It might not look that way at first, but he’s in a smash spot. Although the Browns just fired head coach Hue Jackson, they are no laughing matter on defense under coordinator and now interim head coach Gregg Williams.
The Browns are first in the league with 22 takeaways, and have top-three marks in time (2:16), plays (5.1) and yards (27.7) per drive. Their defensive ranks first against the pass with a -20.6% mark in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, which is remarkable considering that just last season they were 26th (21.6%).
This marked improvement in pass defense is due in-part to the development of 2017 No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett as an edge rusher (1.0 sack per game) and especially the reconfiguration of the secondary: No. 4 overall pick Denzel Ward has replaced Jason McCourty as the No. 1 cornerback. Jamar Taylor has been supplanted on the outside by cornerback E.J. Gaines.
Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87).
Slot cornerback T.J. Carrie has relegated Briean Boddy-Calhoun to the second team. Jabrill Peppers has shifted from free safety to strong safety, moving Derrick Kindred to the sideline, and Damarious Randall is now playing Peppers’ former position.
On top of that, middle linebacker Joe Schobert has emerged as a total pass-defending force. Thanks in large part to him, the Browns are second in pass defense against tight ends with a -49.5% DVOA.
An unheralded 2016 fourth-round draft pick made by silent hero Sashi Brown — “What is dead may never die” — Schobert leads not just the team, but all NFL linebackers with his 91.2 Pro Football Focus (PFF) coverage grade.
But here’s what makes this matchup great for Kelce: Schobert (hamstring) and backup middle linebacker James Burgess (hamstring, IR) are both out. They’ve both missed the past two games. In Weeks 7-8, the Buccaneers and Steelers went to town on the Browns with their tight ends, who collectively scored 32.7 DraftKings points on 17-167-0 receiving and 24 targets.
Without Schobert locking down the middle of the field in coverage, Kelce could have yet another Zeus-esque performance.
If you want to roster him in guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack Kelce with quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Since 2014, No. 1 tight ends on average have had a 0.47 correlation with their quarterbacks. With Mahomes and Alex Smith before him, Kelce has had a 0.66 correlation.
On Sunday morning, I might look to bet the over on Kelce’s yardage prop. To find the best bets in the props market, use our Player Props Tool, which is powered by our industry-leading projections. Since Week 1, the props with a bet quality of 10 have gone 169-80-6, good for a 66% win rate. Without question, you should supplement your DFS action with player props.
Kelce leads all tight ends with his median and ceiling projections, and he has a position-high eight Pro Trends on DraftKings as well as FanDuel, where he’s the No. 1 tight end in the CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner and SportsGeek Models.
David Njoku: Cleveland Browns (+9) vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 52.5 O/U
UPDATE (11/4): Wide receiver Antonio Callaway (ankle) suffered an injury in the Thursday practice and sat on Friday. He is officially questionable but seems unlikely to play. Wide receiver Rashard Higgins (knee) got in limited practice sessions on Thursday and Friday and could play through his questionable tag after missing the past three games.
Oh, my. Last week, Njoku was one of the most popular tight ends in DraftKings tournaments, and he responded with a big zero.
It’s not as if he wasn’t on the field. He played 82.8% of the snaps.
Entering the game, Njoku had exhibited a strong connection with quarterback Baker Mayfield, leading the team with 22 receptions, 228 yards, 87 yards after the catch, two touchdowns and 14.2 DraftKings points per game in the No. 1 overall pick’s four starts.
And then he got zero targets in Week 8.
With Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley gone, what can we expect out of Njoku this week?
Running backs coach-turned-interim offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens is now overseeing the offense. He has no play-calling experience at any level, so he could be a stone-cold disaster, but he’s a Bruce Arians disciple who has eight games to show 32 teams what he can do.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see him take a nothing-to-lose YOLO approach with the offense, which could result in extra opportunities and enhanced production for Njoku. Of Mayfield’s favorite targets, Njoku has unquestionably been the most efficient (per the RotoViz AY/A app).
As significant home dogs, the Browns will likely need to throw to keep pace with the Chiefs, and they at least have a good matchup. The Chiefs are 27th in pass defense against tight ends (-28.9% DVOA), and they have allowed a top-five mark of 16.0 DraftKings points per game to the position.
They are expected to be without All-Pro safety Eric Berry (heel) again, while edge rusher Justin Houston (hamstring) and linebacker Anthony Hitchens (ribs) are also both questionable after missing multiple games in a row.
Long term, I’m very bullish on Njoku and probably qualify as a truther. Njoku is almost certain to be a high-end fantasy producer at some point. He was drafted last year in the first round after leading all draft-eligible tight ends with 11.2 yards after the catch as a Miami redshirt sophomore.
With great size (6-feet-4, 246 pounds) and quickness (6.97-second three-cone), Njoku led the Browns as a 21-year-old rookie with four receiving touchdowns (26.7% of team total). In NFL history, 11 pass-catching tight ends before Njoku were selected in the first four rounds and played as 21-year-old rookies. Here they are in chronological order (with their year, draft round and positions in parentheses)
- Johnny Mitchell (1992, 1st round, 15th pick): Two top-five, three top-10 fantasy seasons
- Tony Gonzalez (1997, 1st round, 13th pick): Four top overall, 11 top-three, 13 top-five, 16 top-10 fantasy seasons
- Todd Heap (2001, 1st round, 31st pick): Three top-three, four-top five fantasy seasons
- Jason Witten (2003, 3rd round, 69th pick): Two top overall, four top-three, seven top-five, 11 top-10 fantasy seasons
- Kellen Winslow (2004, 1st round, 6th pick): One top-five, four top-10 fantasy seasons
- Martellus Bennett (2008, 2nd round, 61st pick): One top-five, three top-10 fantasy seasons
- Jermichael Finley (2008, 3rd round 91st pick): One top-five fantasy season
- Rob Gronkowski (2010, 2nd round, 42nd pick): Four top overall, six top-three, seven top-five fantasy seasons
- Aaron Hernandez (2010, 4th round, 113th pick): One top-three fantasy season
- Eric Ebron (2014, 1st round, 10th pick): Sabotaged by Jim Caldwell, in the middle of a top-five fantasy season now
- Maxx Williams (2015, 2nd round, 55th pick): Ruined by myriad injuries
The breakout is coming at some point.
Njoku leads all tight ends with his floor projections on DraftKings, and he has a nice position-high 69% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he’s the No. 1 option in the Bales, Raybon and Freedman Models.
Kyle Rudolph: Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) vs. Detroit Lions, 49 O/U
UPDATE (11/4): Wide receiver Stefon Diggs (ribs) is expected not to play. Running back Dalvin Cook (hamstring) is expected to play 8-12 snaps.
Rudolph’s potential in this matchup is very much tied to the health of wide receiver Stefon Diggs (ribs), who last week suffered an injury that caused him to miss the entire week of practice. On Thursday, Diggs said that he “absolutely” expects to play this weekend, but he’s officially questionable. We tentatively expect him to suit up, but Diggs has struggled mightily in the past when he’s played through injuries, and Diggs has a tough projected one-on-one matchup with Lions cornerback Darius Slay.
If Diggs is inactive or limited, Rudolph will likely play as the No. 2 receiving option for the Vikings. Although he’s a distant third on the team this year with 43 targets, 32 receptions, 321 yards receiving, 251 air yards and 157 yards after the catch, Rudolph leads the Vikings with 17 touchdowns receiving, 44 red-zone targets and 26 targets within the 10-yard line since 2016 even with Diggs and wide receiver Adam Thielen on the roster.
The Lions offer an enticing matchup for Rudolph. The Lions have the league’s second-worst PFF coverage grade (49.8), and against tight ends in particular they are 31st in pass defense (36.6% DVOA). Strong safety Quandre Diggs and free safety Glover Quin have combined to allow a 75% catch rate in their coverage. When Rudolph last faced the Lions (Week 12 of last year), he had a massive performance, scoring 22.3 DraftKings points on 4-63-2 receiving and four targets.
Priced down, Rudolph is the cheapest he’s been on DraftKings since Week 10 of 2016 (excluding last week, when he had the same salary). Given the upside he has and the roster flexibility he affords, Rudolph is the No. 1 tight end in every Pro Model except for one (Freedman).
Benjamin Watson: New Orleans Saints (+2.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams, 57.7 O/U
It’s not as if I’m a huge fan of Watson, but the Saints-Rams game has the slate’s highest total, and Watson has position-high 82% DraftKings and 91% FanDuel leverage scores thanks to his high ceiling and low ownership projections as the top tight end on the league’s No. 2 team in scoring (33.4 points per game). Watson has the advantage of playing at home at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, the Coors Field of fantasy football.
A highly fantasy-friendly venue, the Superdome has an A-graded 57-40-2 over/under record with Drew Brees at quarterback, good for a 14.9% return on investment for over bettors since 2006, when Brees joined the Saints (per Bet Labs).
It’s alarming that Watson played just 26.4% of the snaps last week after playing at least 50% of the snaps in every week prior, but as a punt play, Watson suffices.
Suitable for GPPs only, Watson is the No. 1 DraftKings tight end in the Freedman Model.
Positional Breakdowns & News
Be sure to read the other Week 9 positional breakdowns.
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87)
Photo credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
