The Defenses and Special Teams Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Sky’s the Limit
Here are the top four D/STs per our Ceiling Projections:
- Los Angeles Rams ($3,500 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel)
- Dallas Cowboys ($2,700 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel)
- Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,600 DraftKings; $4,400 FanDuel)
- Minnesota Vikings ($3,400 DraftKings; $4,600 FanDuel):
The Rams would make an ideal tournament play considering they’re on the expensive side for cash games on both sites. Pressure and sacks are the primary things to look at with defenses, and the Rams rank fifth in pressures, first in hurries and fourth in quarterback hits, per Sports Info Solutions.
Additionally, the Rams are 10-point favorites, and defenses as comparable favorites have historically averaged a +1.19 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool).
The Cowboys, Vikings, and Jaguars are presently tied with the second-highest Ceiling Projection on DraftKings, according to our Models.
Dallas has quietly been a solid defense this season, grading as PFF’s No. 9 overall unit. The Cowboys been excellent at getting after the quarterback, ranking in the top five in both quarterback pressures and hurries, while the Redskins’ offensive line ranks 20th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate.
The only knock on this matchup is the Redskins have the seventh-lowest turnover rate this season (per Pro Football Reference), but that could change on Sunday if the Cowboys can make Alex Smith uncomfortable.
The Jaguars boast the highest sack projection (3.3) among Week 7 defenses as Deshaun Watson has been under pressure all season with the Texans’ offensive line ranking 30th in adjusted sack rate.
The Jaguars are likely a high-floor option this week considering that Watson has been sacked 25 times already this year, and he’s been under pressure on a league-high 46.8% of his dropbacks. The Texans are implied for just 19 points.
The Vikings’ matchup against the Jets doesn’t jump off the page, as Gang Green is still implied for 21.5 points and Minnesota is only a 3.5-point favorite on the road.
That said, Vikings do rank seventh in adjusted sack rate, but the Jets have done an OK job at keeping Sam Darnold clean considering that he’s been pressured on 34% of his dropbacks (PFF), which ranks near the middle of the pack (18th).
Minnesota’s defense is better left for tournaments with its 70% Leverage Rating.
Shoot the Gap
Philadelphia Eagles ($2,600 DraftKings; $4,200 FanDuel): The Eagles are very intriguing against Cam Newton. PFF grades the Eagles’ pass-rushing unit as the NFL’s best, and per Sports Info Solutions, Philly ranks second in pressures (89) and first in quarterback hits (58) this year. Cam is averaging just 5.5 yards per attempt and a 46.2% completion rate when he’s under pressure this season.
Indianapolis Colts ($3,300 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel): The Colts will take on Bills offense that is implied for just 17.75 points. More importantly, the Bills can’t pass block, allowing 24 sacks this season and ranking dead last in adjusted sack rate. The Colts’ 3.0 sack projection ranks only behind the Jaguars for Week 7.
Buffalo Bills ($2,300 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel): The Bills are an interesting punt play if you need the salary. They’re 7.5-point underdogs against the Colts, but the Bills’ defense has been fairly solid this season. Overall, PFF grades Buffalo with the No. 6 overall defense and the No. 4 pass rush. The Bills’ 4.9 yards per play allowed trails only the Ravens’ rate this season and Buffalo ranks ninth in adjusted sack rate. Also, Andrew Luck isn’t exactly known for taking care of the football — the Colts boast the fourth-highest turnover rate this year.
Be sure to check out our industry-leading NFL News and Models, along with our Multi-Lineup Builder, Stack builder, ownership projections and more. Also, make sure to check out our other tools for the 2018 season, including the Matchups page, DFS Contests Dashboard, NFL Ownership page, and NFL Correlations page.
Pictured above: Michael Bennett and Eli Manning
Photo credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
