At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available to DFS users. We also realize that those tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability o communicate their functionality and worth to you.
With this in mind, our “Trend of the Day” series features articles that walk subscribers through an important trend each weekday, created by our Trends tool.
A common conundrum we face in MLB DFS is attempting to determine whether there’s more value in targeting high-strikeout pitchers in less-than-ideal spots or lower-strikeout pitchers in plus spots. Because the majority of the scoring systems generally favor strikeouts, I personally find myself chasing them more often than not, so I thought it apt to focus on that aspect for today’s Trend of the Day. Specifically, we will be focusing on pitchers that have a high strikeout rate — we’ll use 10 or higher for our filter — and unfavorable Vegas conditions.
Step 1: Stat Filters > SO Per 9 > Set to “10 to 13”
Step 2: Vegas Filters > Vegas Score > Set to “2 to 50”
I chose to go with Vegas Score because it takes into account all of the individual factors we generally look at, but you could just as well use run total, moneyline or any other filter you’d prefer to weigh heavier.
So with that, let’s take a look at our results.
If you look at the Plus/Minus in the two filters above, the unfavorable Vegas conditions actually decrease the Plus/Minus of this trend considerably, knocking it down roughly two full points. This movement actually makes a decent amount of sense though. The concern with rostering pitchers in these spots is that they have a decent chance of being run prior to racking up enough strikeouts to pay off their salary.
If you’ve taken a glance at the slate for today already, I’m sure you can guess who our match will be, but here it is for those who haven’t dug in yet.
Surkamp certainly fits the bill, as his strikeout rate is elite, but the matchup against the Mariners isn’t the most ideal of spots. He’s cheap and Safeco Field isn’t a bad spot to target pitchers, making him an interesting option in tournaments.
Good luck with your lineups today!
