The UFC is heading to England, with both of their British champions defending their belts on Saturday night. Leon Edwards is putting his welterweight title on the line against Belal Muhammad, while Tom Aspinall is defending the interim heavyweight strap opposite Curtis Blaydes.
The 14-fight card locks at 12:00 p.m. ET
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Umar Nurmagomedov ($9,300) vs. Cory Sandhagen ($7,900)
Umar Nurmagomedov is the next step in “Father’s Plan” — the roadmap laid out by the father of Khabib Nurmagomedov that ends in UFC domination by the Dagestani-born fighters. He’s Khabib’s cousin, with a perfect 17-0 MMA record, including five of those wins in the UFC.
He gets a big step up in competition in Cory Sandhagen, a former interim title challenger who’s been one of the bantamweight division’s best fighters for a long time. Sandhagen is 10-3 for the promotion while riding a three-fight winning streak.
Nurmagomedov is understandably a massive favorite here, with easily the best DFS projections on the slate. He averages 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and has finished three of his five UFC wins. That gives him plenty of upside, no matter how long this fight lasts.
Sandhagen profiles well for DFS, too, with solid striking and grappling numbers. He likely won’t look to grapple offensively against Nurmagomedov, but his activity rate on the feet makes him an interesting play if this one gets to the championship round.
It’s roughly a pick ’em to go all 25 minutes, making this a no-brainer stack for cash games. Given the upside from both fighters — and the fact that their upside isn’t necessarily negatively correlated — I’m also interested in stacking this for GPPs with a small chunk of my lineups.
The Easy Chalk
Guram Kutateladze ($8,800)
Outside of the main event, I don’t really love any of the slate’s most expensive fighters. One that I feel great about, though, is Kutateladze. At “just” $8,800, he’s arguably underpriced relative to his -230 or so odds against Jordan Vucenic ($7,400)
Vucenic is a former Cage Warriors featherweight champ who’s stepping up on short notice to take this lightweight bout against Kutateladze. Kutateladze is a massive lightweight with a 1-2 UFC record — but he’s better than the record suggests.
He was dominating his last fight against Elves Brener (more on him later) before Brener landed a miracle third-round knockout, and his other loss was a split decision against Damir Ismagulov (once a highly-touted prospect who’s since departed the promotion.) “The Georgian Viking” also beat Mateusz Gamrot in his UFC debut. Gamrot is 7-1 since and is now number five in the UFC Rankings.
Given the short notice of this fight for Vucenic and Kutateladze’s resume, he feels like a safe play. Especially relative to his price point.
The Upside Play
Azamat Murzakanov ($8,700)
It’s an interesting fight card in that none of the 13 fights are more than -200 or so odds to end inside the distance, making upside theoretically harder to come by. Of course, odds are at least one or two of those will end in the first round — and my money is on Muzakanov.
“The Professional” is 4-0 in the UFC and Contender Series combined, with three knockouts. His lone decision win also included a knockdown, so he’s dropped all four opponents under the UFC umbrella. He’s taking on Alonzo Menifield ($7,500), who’s coming off a 12-second knockout loss to Carlos Ulberg less than three months ago.
It wasn’t the worst knockout I’ve ever seen, but that’s still an awfully quick turnaround, given the circumstances. Menifield is fairly hittable in general, making this a tough matchup stylistically against Murzakanov.
There’s a chance Menifield uses his strength and grappling to turn this into a boring “lay and pray” style fight. That’s why this one is an “upside play,” not an “easy chalk” selection. Murzakanov is just +140 or so to win by knockout, fairly solid odds especially at his price.
The Value Play
Rolando Bedoya ($7,600)
Rolando Bedoya is 0-2 in the UFC, with decision losses to Khaos Williams and Kenan Song. However, he managed to land over 100 significant strikes in each of those bouts for a ridiculous 8.70 significant strikes per minute rate.
We typically don’t see numbers like that outside of fighters with primarily early finishes — to sustain that pace for 15 minutes is elite. It also explains how he’s managed to average over 50 DraftKings points per fight despite losing all of his appearances.
He gets a step down both in competition and weight class at UFC Abu Dhabi against Jai Herbert ($8,600). Herbert is 2-4-1 in the UFC, with his last win coming more than two years ago. That’s especially notable because “The Black Country Banger” is now 36 and likely on the decline in terms of his skills.
Bedoya has also seen plenty of money come in on his side, with his betting odds drooping from +140 when DFS salaries were released to +114 on Friday. That makes him more likely to win than his salary would imply, with a solid floor thanks to his high output.
The Contrarian Choice
Michal Oleksiejczuk ($7,200)
The co-main event this weekend features the much-hyped Shara “Bullet” Magomedov ($9,000) against veteran middleweight Michal Oleksiejczuk. Magomedov is coming in as a heavy favorite despite having just a 2-0 record with both fights coming against opponents with losing UFC records.
Magomedov comes from an extensive striking background but remains relatively unproven in MMA. His first opponent was a fellow former kickboxer in Bruno Silva, who took Magomedov down three times despite dropping the decision.
Oleksiejczuk is 7-6-1 in the UFC, though three of those losses came at light heavyweight before dropping to middleweight. All but one of those losses came via submission, and he’s never suffered a knockdown despite fighting larger opponents.
This makes him a tough matchup stylistically for Magomedov, who offers little grappling threat. Oleksiecjzuk could mix in a takedown or two of his own, or he could keep this one standing where he’s historically found plenty of success.
Either way, he has a far better chance than either his betting odds or moneyline imply. Plus, the hype around Magomedov will naturally lower Oleksiejczuk’s ownership. That makes him a very interesting GPP option.
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The Swing Fight
Joel Alvarez ($8,300) vs. Elves Brener ($7,900)
With apologies to Deiveson Figueiredo ($8,400) and Marlon Vera ($7,800), the leading candidate for fight of the night is probably the lightweight bout between Alvarez and Brener. It’s another fight where both fighters have tremendous upside, and the -210 stoppage odds are second-best on the slate.
Alvarez has finished all 20 of his pro wins and seen just one decision in three losses. He’s a massive lightweight at 6’3″ tall, with elite grappling ability. He uses his length to keep opponents uncomfortable at range. Then, when they close the distance, he traps them with submissions.
Brener is a training partner of former champion Charles Oliveira at Chute Boxe, with a similar style. He mixes hyper-aggressive striking with solid submission skills, especially from his back, forcing opponents to pick their poison.
Alvarez will likely land more on the feet, but the power edge certainly lies with Brener. The grappling could be even more interesting, as Brener will be in control over whether it hits the mat or not. Alvarez has never landed a takedown in the UFC despite having three submission wins and has just an 11% takedown defense.
That gives Brener some takedown-driven upside, while Alvarez could certainly win the fight on the ground if it gets there. I’m viewing this as a true pick ’em — which is why I like the value on Brener. I took him as a betting underdog, and I slightly prefer him in DFS as well. However, I’ll be covering my bases with a solid helping of Alvarez.
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