The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Sean Bouchard ($3,100): Outfielder, Colorado Rockies
Sean Bouchard has started in five of six games since being called up by Colorado. He’s started hot, with a hit in every game, including two doubles and a stolen base. Bouchard will likely remain with the team while Kris Bryant is injured.
Bouchard gets the benefit of playing at home in Coors Field while getting an advantageous matchup against Matt Waldron. Righties have given Waldron a lot of trouble this year, as he’s allowed a .248 xISO and .358 xwOBA. Bouchard has a limited sample size this year, but going back to his 29 at-bats against right-handed pitchers last year, he sported a .215 xISO and .321 xwOBA.
Bouchard is tied for third among all batters in Points/Salary, while sitting fourth in Projected Plus/Minus. He’s a great value on Wednesday Night.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Joe Ryan ($10,400) vs. Chicago White Sox
One pitcher stands head and shoulders above the rest tonight from a ceiling perspective, and that’s Joe Ryan. Ryan has made four starts thus far, and outside of his outing in Detroit, has been nothing special.
He has 18 strikeouts and eight earned runs across his other three starts, averaging just 15.57 DraftKings points per game. However, you’re not playing Ryan for his median outcomes. You’re playing him for the ceiling he possesses, as seen in his first matchup with Detroit, where he struck out 12 batters across six innings for 31.3 DraftKings points.
You can also paint a picture as to why his other three outings were mediocre. Kansas City’s offense has been a revelation, and Cleveland is an extremely patient offense that doesn’t strike out a lot. He still put up 17.6 and 17.9 DraftKings points in those contests.
His 11.2-point performance against Detroit was his second time facing them in under a week, so the Detroit batters were ready the second time around. He gets a matchup today with a White Sox team that has just 12 runs over their last five games.
Hitter
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,100) vs. Colorado Rockies
Despite a slate with many stud hitters, Fernando Tatis Jr. has the highest ceiling projection by over three points. Tatis gets the Coors Field bump and is facing off with Ty Blach, who got plastered by right-handed batters last season. Blach allowed a .225 xISO and a .418 xwOBA against righties in 2023.
Tatis tattooed left-handed pitchers last season with a .261 xISO and .407 xwOBA. Tatis also had a .242 xISO and .463 xwOBA against the sinker, which Blach threw over 50% of the time to righties.
He owns tremendous numbers against lefties in 2024 as well despite a smaller sample size. Tatis has a .411 xISO, .476 xwOBA, and a .403 xwOBA against the sinker from lefties.
Tatis is my first batter in lineups on Wednesday.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Clarke Schmidt ($8,900) vs. Oakland Athletics
After back-to-back mediocre starts to open the year, Clarke Schmidt has turned it on. He’s allowed just two earned runs to go along with 14 strikeouts across his last two starts, good for 41.7 DraftKings points. He saw success against a pesky Cleveland team, striking out seven batters.
We saw him eclipse 100 pitches in his last outing, so pitch count is no worry, as he’s fully stretched out. Schmidt has been slightly worse against lefties, but has limited damage to both sides of the plate and should only see four lefties tonight. Oakland strikes out at the highest rate in the league, and Schmidt owns the highest strikeout prop on the slate.
Schmidt ranks second in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary while owning the second-highest ceiling projection despite being the fourth-most expensive pitcher on the slate.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,300) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Bobby Witt Jr. is fresh off of a three-hit performance on Tuesday, notching a stolen base and two RBI as well en route to 20 DraftKings points. He gets a matchup on Tuesday against Yariel Rodriguez, whom he should have success against.
Rodriguez has been abused by righties to start the season, allowing a .454 xISO and .458 xwOBA. Witt has a .368 xISO and a .455 xwOBA against righties so far this year. Rodriguez throws his slider and fastball over 85% of the time to righties. Witt has absolutely smashed righty fastballs, with a .835 xISO and .644 xwOBA on the year. His slider numbers are middling, but the sample size is small.
Ha-Seong Kim ($4,500 DraftKings) vs. Colorado Rockies
I’m going back to the Padres for one of my favorite plays in the middle range. Kim had a goose egg in the series opener against Colorado but rebounded with two hits, a run, and a stolen base on Tuesday.
Ty Blach of the Rockies allowed a .225 xISO and a .418 xwOBA against righties in 2023. Most of that damage came against his sinker, which he threw over 55% of the time and allowed a .248 xISO and .423 xwOBA.
Kim has great numbers against lefties so far this year, with a .235 xISO and a .368 xwOBA. He also smashed sinkers from lefties last year, with a .217 xISO and a .342 xwOBA. Kim makes a lot of sense as a mid-range option if you can’t afford getting up to Bobby Witt.
