The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jake Bauers ($2,900): First Baseman, Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee first baseman Jake Bauers presents a low-end boom-or-bust proposition for fantasy owners tonight. In 12 games this season, Bauers has three double-digit DraftKings performances, including a 20-point result. In his other nine games, Bauers has four scoreless fantasy games.
His overall batting numbers are .158/.220/.316 on the season with one home run and eight RBI. A part-time player for most of his journeyman career, Bauers is seeing somewhat consistent at bats in the Brewers lineup. He will need to improve on his .262 xwOBA and .192 xBA to continue seeing those opportunities.
The model likes Bauers as a lottery ticket bargain tonight against Kyle Gibson and the Cardinals. Gibson is 1-2 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the season. He has allowed an enticing .424 xwOBA and .606 xSLG in 2024.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Freddy Peralta ($9,500) at St. Louis Cardinals
With one of the highest strikeout rates (39.4%) and lowest walk rates (3.0%), it’s easy to see why the ceiling for Freddy Peralta is so high. The Brewers righty has been excellent so far in 2024 with a 2-0 record and 2.55 ERA through three starts.
Peralta currently leads the National League with a 0.68 WHIP and has allowed a .191 xBA and .255 xwOBA. He has produced three straight positive Plus/Minus performances to open the season, including two 30+ DraftKings point games.
Using PlateIQ, the Cardinals have a low 3.8 run projection, .127 ISO, and .287 wOBA. Add that to a low park factor and five Cardinals hitters with a K% above 26%, and this could be another upside day for Peralta. He is a great option for fantasy lineups.
Hitter
Julio Rodriguez ($5,900) at Colorado Rockies
One of major league baseball’s top young talents gets the Colorado bump tonight to add to his fantasy prospects. Julio Rodriguez could certainly benefit from a park rating boost with his early season struggles.
Through 19 games, Rodriguez is batting just .219/.269/.260 without a home run and just five RBI. He sits second in the National League with 27 strikeouts, as his 34.6 K% is far higher than his 24.5% mark in 2023. Rodriguez has a -3.15 Plus/Minus average on the season.
The Mariners head to Denver today to take on right-hander Dakota Hudson. Hudson is 0-3 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He ranks near the bottom of the league in strikeout and whiff rates. This could be a spot for Rodriguez to get off the home run schneid.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Joe Ryan ($8,900) vs. Detroit Tigers
Twins right-hander Joe Ryan has allowed just four earned runs through his first three starts in 2024. He has a 2.60 ERA and 0.92 WHIP but is still looking for a notch in the win column with his 0-1 record.
The model likes him to pick up that win today against the Tigers in Minnesota. Detroit’s lineup certainly doesn’t scare you. They have a team .114 ISO and .277 wOBA, although they have managed at least four runs in each of their last three games against the Rangers.
Ryan has a +2.05 Plus/Minus on the season with a strong 34.3 K% and .264 wOBA. He has lasted at least 5.1 innings and has thrown over 80 pitches in all three starts. He is a strong candidate to continue his consistent production on today’s main slate.
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MLB DFS Hitter
Jorge Polanco ($5,000) at Colorado Rockies
The model loves the Mariners in Colorado today, as they have one of the highest implied run totals on the main slate. Second baseman Jorge Polanco has shown enough power in the early season to take advantage of the ballpark and produce for fantasy owners.
Polanco is batting .182/.325/.318 through 19 games with three home runs and eight RBI. He is an all-or-nothing proposition at the plate, only putting the ball in play about half the time he steps to the plate. He sits near the league’s leaders with both 13 walks and 26 strikeouts in 80 plate appearances.
Rockies starter Dakota Hudson has struggled to an 0-3 record this season, and the model expects the Mariners to put up runs today. Fantasy owners will want pieces of this game, and Polanco may be a nice stackable option to perform for the price.
Orlando Arcia ($4,000) vs. Texas Rangers
The 29-year-old Orlando Arcia is on a hot streak to start 2024 with an impressive .377/.412/.557 batting line and .969 OPS. If he can add some power to his repertoire, Arcia’s DraftKings salary will continue on its upward trend.
Through 17 games, Arcia has just one home run, but is near the league’s leaders with eight doubles and 23 total hits. He is on pace to trounce his 2023 batting totals (.264/.321/.420) as he continues to be yet another solid bat in the Braves lineup.
Arcia is coming off two straight multi-hit and multi-RBI games. He faces Rangers left-hander Andrew Heaney today with a 0-2 record and 6.75 ERA. Heaney has yet to last into the fifth inning. This is a good spot for Arcia to continue his early season streak.
