The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Rowdy Tellez ($2,800): First Base, Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates have finally taken meaningful steps toward delivering more consistent offensive performances and competing in the NL Central. The once-proud franchise has gotten production out of various parts of their lineup at different points this season, but Tuesday night will be Rowdy Tellez’s time to shine.
The left-handed batting first baseman has been a little underwhelming on the season but has reserved his best performances versus hard-throwing right-handers. More specifically, Tellez feasts on the fastball, and Hunter Greene turns to that offering more than any other pitch.
Throwing his four-seamer 56.0% of the time, batters can expect a healthy dose of high-90s fastballs in every at-bat. So far this season, Tellez has a .449 expected slugging percentage against the heater. In more general terms, he’s also a natural progression candidate to deliver more productive at-bats, falling 57 points below his expected slugging percentage on the season.
At his best, Tellez has been an All-Star caliber first baseman. Although he’s fallen short of that standard for most of the season, we’re expecting him to put up a game-changing effort on tonight’s main slate. The 29-year-old is our Projected Plus/Minus leader and preferred bargain candidate against the Cincinnati Reds.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Hunter Brown ($8,000) vs. Colorado Rockies
Savvy DFS players will be looking to cash in on Hunter Brown’s recent hot streak as his Houston Astros take on the Colorado Rockies in inter-league action. After a terrible start to the season, Brown’s been on fire over his past six starts. More importantly, we’re expecting that upward trajectory to carry him into another solid outing versus the lowly Rockies.
As of May 17, Brown was sitting with an inflated 7.71 ERA and a corresponding 1-4 record; however, the former fifth-round pick has turned things around lately. Brown has thrown six straight quality starts, limiting opponents to two or fewer earned runs in all but one of those outings. Altogether, he’s totaled 37.0 innings pitched with 41 punch outs and seven earned runs across that six-game sample. The corresponding 0.89 WHIP and 1.70 ERA put Brown in the AL Cy Young conversation, even with the disastrous start.
The Rockies have been one of the freest-swinging teams this season. Their 734 Ks are fifth-most in the majors, and when we take them out of their hitter-friendly venue, their run production falls perilously. As the visitors, Colorado’s OPS drops to .652, the fifth-worst in the majors, yielding the fourth-fewest runs.
Circumstances favor Brown and the Astros tonight, and that’s reflected in our projections. The hard-throwing righty leads are median and ceiling projections and should have no problem maintaining his current form into July.
Hitter
Freddie Freeman ($5,800) vs. Chicago White Sox
First things first, Chris Flexen isn’t as good as his recent streak suggests. Analytically, the Chicago White Sox probable starter has been one of the worst in the bigs, making last week’s 1-run effort versus the Houston Astros stand out as an anomaly. That sets him up for a classic letdown spot against one of the most dangerous lineups in the majors as the White Sox take on the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Dodgers have two elite hitters at the top of the order who could facilitate Flexen’s anticipated regression, and you wouldn’t be wrong for rostering either or both of them. Still, we’re deferring to Freddie Freeman and his elite form on Tuesday.
The former NL MVP has been on a tear lately. The three-time Silver Slugger has a 1.073 OPS in the month of June, including an MVP-worthy .653 slugging percentage. Naturally, that correlates with improved run production from his spot atop the batting order, with Freeman driving in 13 and coming around to score 18 more.
With 26 hits across his last 21 games, including five homers and 11 extra-base hits, Freeman should have no problem getting to Flexen on Tuesday night. He rates highly in our projections and has the PlateIQ profile to match, warranting inclusion in any format.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Kevin Gausman ($8,100) vs. Boston Red Sox
We’re always on the hunt for quality buy-low candidates, and Kevin Gausman checks that box better than anyone else this season. The Toronto Blue Jays ace entered the year with Cy Young aspirations. He hasn’t met that standard early, but we’re expecting a resurgent second half from the righty.
Gausman is operating well outside normal ranges, particularly over his latest starts. Since the start of June, the two-time All-Star is 1-3 with an increasing 4.44 ERA, despite lowering his WHIP to 1.14 over that stretch. That inverted relationship implies that Gausman is due for more quality appearances, as his ERA dips to reflect the fewer baserunners he’s allowing.
We’re expecting that trajectory to change course in Tuesday’s showdown versus the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox have seen a staggering increase in strikeouts over the past two weeks, walking back to the dugout 111 times over their past 13 games. Additionally, they’ve elevated their OPS beyond sustainable measures over that stretch, bumping it to .842, above their season-long benchmark of .744.
Waves collide in this AL East showdown, as Gausman and the Red Sox are expected to enter the correction phase. Gausman’s trajectory should result in a return to elite play, while the Red Sox are due for regression. That makes Gausman and his $8,100 salary one of the most appealing contrarian plays on the main slate.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Eloy Jimenez ($4,000) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The White Sox can fight fire with fire in their inter-league showdown versus the Dodgers tonight. LA trots Bobby Miller out to the mound for the evening contest, and the young flame thrower has been largely ineffective in limited action this season. Consequently, Eloy Jimenez and the rest of the Southsiders lineup can inflict damage to keep pace with the mighty Dodgers.
Jimenez returned to the lineup this past weekend after missing over a month with a hamstring injury. The former Silver Slugger is seemingly rounding into form, recording hits in his first two games back. Still, Jimenez remains well below where we expect him to be.
In limited action this season, the White Sox outfielder has put together a .373 slugging percentage. That puts him substantially below his expected value of .454 and even further off his career average of .478. As Jimenez gets back into game shape, we should see a noticeable increase in his slugging percentage.
That progression should start in Tuesday’s tilt versus the Dodgers. Miller is getting tagged to the tune of 10.9% barrel and 43.5% hard-hit rates, resulting in an unflattering 5.05 expected ERA. Jimenez should lead the White Sox charge, ending the night as one of the top fantasy performers.
Marcus Semien ($4,800) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Texas Rangers are desperately trying to re-assert themselves as American League contenders, and Marcus Semien is doing his part to get them there. We’re anticipating another robust fantasy performance in tonight’s battle versus the Milwaukee Brewers.
Semien enters tonight on a modest four-game hitting streak, but we’re intrigued by the return of his power stroke over his recent sample. Three of Semien’s last seven hits have gone for extra bases, bringing his slugging percentage back toward normal range. Still, Semien is operating below expected, implying further progression is anticipated.
Some of that growth should come against Brewers starter Bryse Wilson. Wilson gets hit hard every time he’s toeing the rubber, ranking in the 10th percentile in hard-hit rate. As expected, that correlates with a below-average barrel rate, expected slugging percentage, and expected ERA, leaving Wilson with a bottom-tier analytics profile.
Semien’s fantasy ceiling is better than most. Considering his favorable pitching matchup, we expect him to end the night toward the upper end of his projections. He’ll continue to do his part to lead the Rangers back into the AL playoff mix with another elite effort.
