The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Austin Martin ($2,600): Outfielder, Minnesota Twins
After rejoining the Twins on June 13, rookie outfielder Austin Martin has been valuable for the club and fantasy owners. He is batting .545/.583/.636 over the last four games with three multi-hit outings.
Martin has appeared in 34 games for Minnesota with an overall .264/.326/.391 hitting line. His production has been capped with just one home run and eight RBI in 95 plate appearances. The model sees value in Martin as a low-end lineup filler with double-digit DraftKings point capability.
The Twins face 23-year-old right-hander Taj Bradley for the Rays today. Bradley is 2-4 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the season.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Cole Ragans ($9,800) at Oakland Athletics
The Kansas City workhorse has hit another strikeout gear as he sits second in the American League with 102 punchouts this season. His 29.1 K% and 94.53 average pitch count give him a lot of fantasy-scoring opportunities on a nightly basis.
Cole Ragans is 4-4 on the season with a 3.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has a +0.79 average Plus/Minus on the season with a .274 wOBA and .233 xBA.
Using PlateIQ, the projected Athletics lineup has a .229 ISO and .339 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Oakland is one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league with low park ratings for hitters on both sides of the plate. Expect Ragans to take advantage of the low run and hit projections for the Athletics tonight.
Hitter
Freddie Freeman ($6,400) at Colorado Rockies
The Dodgers boast a litany of high-ceiling plays tonight in Colorado. Just behind teammate Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman has the second-highest ceiling projection on the main slate.
Freeman is having another strong season for Los Angeles with a .298/.409/.496 hitting line, just below the .300 mark he’s reached in seven out of the last eight seasons. His power numbers are a bit down from recent campaigns, with 10 home runs in 75 games. His 39.3 hard hit % and .482 xSLG are his lowest marks since at least 2015.
The model expects fireworks in Colorado as the Dodgers have a primo matchup against Ryan Feltner. The Rockies righty is 1-6 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Joe Ryan ($9,500) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
When Joe Ryan can keep the ball inside the park, he has been very effective for the Minnesota Twins this season. The right-hander has allowed 13 home runs already this season but has also amassed the fourth-best WHIP in the American League (0.94).
Overall, Ryan is 5-5 with a 3.24 ERA in 14 starts. He has four positive Plus/Minus results in his last four starts, with at least 23 DraftKings points in each.
The Rays sit near the bottom of the league in home runs but do have an elevated long ball projection. Their hit-and-run projections are much lower, with the model loving Ryan to excel tonight for fantasy owners.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Shohei Ohtani ($7,000) at Colorado Rockies
It’s difficult to keep Shohei Ohtani out of the model picks on a daily basis, but it’s even more difficult with the matchup in Colorado. Ohtani is 5-10 with a home run, two doubles, and three RBI in the first two games of the series.
Ohtani continues on a historic pace in 2024 with a .316/.388/.608 batting line. He has already launched six home runs in June to reach 20 on the season and is on pace to set a new career mark with 16 stolen bases through 72 games.
The Dodgers have the highest implied run total on the slate by a long shot. Even with a price tag starting with a seven, Ohtani is still worth the money as the stud in fantasy lineups.
Francisco Lindor ($4,800) at Texas Rangers
Fantasy owners looking for value outside of the state of Colorado could target the streaking Francisco Lindor tonight in Texas. The Mets shortstop has an impressive +4.39 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
This season, Lindor is batting .238/.309/.424 with 12 home runs and 37 RBI. He has swiped 11 bags and notched 18 doubles while scoring the ninth-most runs in the National League (46).
Lindor will step in against the struggling Andrew Heaney tonight. The Texas lefty is 2-8 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 13 starts this season.
