The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Max Schuemann ($2,300): Shortstop, Texas Rangers
Oakland’s 27-year-old rookie shortstop Max Schuemann is a model favorite today as a bargain option. He has a +4.81 average Plus/Minus over the last 10 games, with six double-digit DraftKings point results in that span.
Schuemann is batting .236/.329/.347 with five home runs and 20 RBI in 69 games. His .206 xBA is one of the lowest in the league, but he is batting .350/.480/.650 so far in July.
For the price, Schuemann is an interesting pick against Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta today. Pivetta is 4-5 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Chris Bassitt ($8,500) at San Francisco Giants
Chris Bassitt has the highest projected ceiling on the slate with the seventh-highest salary. The Blue Jays right-hander is 7-7 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 18 starts.
His stat lines don’t knock your socks off, but Bassitt has seven 20+ DraftKings point results this season. The ceiling projection thinks he has a strong chance for his first 30+ point total tonight against the Giants.
Using Plate IQ, the Giants’ projected lineup has a .155 ISO and .313 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have a relatively low run projection and low park rating from both sides of the plate. They have two high ISO and three high wOBA hitters in the lineup.
Hitter
Rafael Devers ($6,200) vs. Oakland Athletics
After Shohei Ohtani, Rafael Devers has one of the highest ceiling projections on the slate and is having an incredible July for the Red Sox. Through 28 at-bats this month, Devers is batting .393/.500/.821 with three home runs and 13 RBI.
Overall, Devers is batting .296/.381/.595 and is sixth in the American League with 21 home runs. He has an impressive .581 xSLG and .397 xwOBA with three home runs in his last three games.
The Red Sox face left-hander JP Sears with a 5-7 record and a 4.74 ERA. He has a low 16.7 K% and .251 xBA allowed.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Logan Webb ($9,800) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The model expects a low-scoring game in San Francisco with Logan Webb on the mound for the Giants. Webb is 7-6 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.22 WHIP through 19 starts.
Webb has a +1.11 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and nine positive Plus/Minus results in that span. He does allow a high 48.6 hard hit %, but only five of those hits have left the yard.
The Blue Jays lineup has a .149 ISO and .308 wOBA against right-handed pitching. They have a low home run projection against Webb and a very low projected run total.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Elly De La Cruz ($6,400) vs. Colorado Rockies
Cincinnati has one of the highest implied run totals on the slate today against the Rockies, and Elly De La Cruz can score fantasy points in a hurry in a variety of ways.
De La Cruz is batting .251/.344/.469 on the season. He leads the National League with 45 stolen bases and six triples. He also leads with 122 strikeouts, which makes him a risky fantasy option with the potential for blank games.
The Reds face left-hander Kyle Freeland tonight in Cincinnati. In seven starts, Freeland is 0-3 with a 6.62 ERA and 1.67 WHIP.
Francisco Lindor ($5,300) vs. Washington Nationals
The Mets have a strong run projection tonight, and Francisco Lindor is on a hot streak with two three-hit games in his last three starts. The shortstop has a +3.29 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
Lindor is batting .253/.321/.455 with 16 home runs and 48 RBI on the season. He is second in the National League with 26 doubles and has a .510 xSLG.
Lindor excels against left-handed pitching with a .302/.362/.563 and five home runs in 96 at-bats. He faces left-hander Patrick Corbin with a 1-8 record and a 5.49 ERA.
