The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a seven-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease ($10,200) San Diego Padres (-142) vs. Chicago Cubs
It’s kind of a rough day for pitching on Wednesday. There’s only a few teams with totals under four runs, and the pitchers in those games are priced relatively highly for their likely outcomes.
Of course, we’re all operating with the same player pool, and the best score of the day wins even if it’s low by usual standards. (I should mention that SimLabs has projected winning scores for the slate as a feature — it’s worth checking out.) By that metric, Cease is probably the best play.
The Cubs’ 3.8-run total is near the lowest on the board, and Cease has solid strikeout upside with a 28% rate dating back to the start of last season. The Cubs aren’t a huge strikeout team this season — they rank 24th in the stat — but Cease should pick up at least a handful.
Cease leads THE BAT projections for median on today’s smaller slate, while coming in a close second on FantasyLabs.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Kyle Hendricks ($6,200) Chicago Cubs (+120) at San Diego Padres
As challenging as it is at the top of the pitcher salary scale, finding a cheap arm is even more difficult today. Not a single pitcher has a Bargain Rating over 50% on DraftKings today — meaning they’re all relatively cheaper on FanDuel — but ideally we’d leave some salary on the table for premium hitters tonight.
Given those difficulties, Hendricks just might be the best option. He’s allowed ten earned runs through 7.2 innings across his two starts this season, but he’s clearly a better pitcher than that. Last season, he had a solid 3.74 ERA and similar underlying metrics. Crucially, those two starts came against the Rangers and Dodgers, two of the best lineups in baseball.
While the Padres aren’t a bad offense, they’re more in the “slightly above average” range than the elite teams he’s faced so far. That makes this a nice buy-low opportunity on Hendricks. He doesn’t have massive strikeout upside, but he could be the key to saving enough salary that you can afford the top hitters today.
Hendricks leads all pitchers under $9,000 in Pts/Sal projection in THE BAT today.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Greene ($9,300) Cincinnati Reds (-135) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Unlike the other options mentioned today, Greene is a massive-upside play who could easily make (or break!) your lineups. Starting his third season in the majors, Greene has somehow improved upon his average fastball velocity of 98.5 mph from last year, sitting 99.2 with a 13.6% swinging strike rate through two appearances.
He’s also taken a big step forward in run prevention so far, with a 2.53 ERA. His career number is more than two runs higher, reflecting an annoying habit of getting blown up deeper into starts once he begins to tire and lose velocity. I don’t want to draw too many conclusions from soft matchups with the Mets and Nationals, though. Milwaukee is a considerably tougher team to face.
Still, he might have the best pure stuff in baseball with Spencer Strider now injured. That makes him hard to ignore at his price tag, even in a sub-optimal matchup. I likely won’t be looking his way in cash games, but he’s a strong GPP option that could absolutely break the slate.
Be sure to monitor the weather for the Brewers-Reds game.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Texas Rangers:
The Rangers are one of the premium stacks that should draw plenty of interest today. They have a 5.3-run implied total tonight at home against the A’s. They’re taking on starter Ross Stripling ($6,000), a pitch-to-contact pitcher with an 18% strikeout rate so far in 2023.
That’s scary against a powerful Rangers lineup, especially considering the hitter-friendly Park Factor and Weather Rating in Texas tonight. The ball should be flying, and this one could get ugly in a hurry.
Fortunately for DFS players, this stack also isn’t prohibitively expensive today. The average salary is a bit under $5,000, which is pricey but not unreachable today.
Of course, that means their ownership will likely be elevated, but we can get unique elsewhere.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Giancarlo Stanton OF ($4,700) New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins (Ryan Weathers)
Despite their slightly lower total, I actually prefer Yankees stacks to Rangers stacks for tournaments tonight. While their top five hitters are slightly more expensive, that should help with ownership, and they have an ideal matchup with Marlins lefty Ryan Weathers ($6,400).
Weathers has a career ERA of nearly 6.00, and the Yankees lineup is packed with lefty-mashers. Check out their numbers via PlateIQ:
There’s plenty of strong options, but when factoring in salary, Stanton jumps out as the best play.
Shea Langeliers C ($2,600) Oakland A’s at Texas Rangers (Cody Bradford)
The most important part of this play is that Langeliers is projected to hit fourth, as a catcher, while priced at just $2,600 on Wednesday. Given the lack of comfortable pitching value, that’s enough on it’s own to make him worth considering.
However, he’s also brings plenty of upside. He hit 22 home runs last season, and already has four through ten games in 2024. He strikes out a ton and doesn’t hit for average well, but half of his hits this year have left the park, making him a high-risk, high-reward play.
Fortunately, he’s priced at a point where even a goose egg probably doesn’t kill your lineup, making it a risk worth taking.
Starling Marte OF ($3,700) New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (Allan Winans)
Marte is a bit too cheap today considering his number-two slot in the Mets order and their solid matchup. They’re taking on Braves call-up Allan Winans ($7,700), a 28 year-old four-A player who had an ERA above 5.00 in limited big league action last season.
Marte has regressed into just a league average hitter at this point in his career, but he still provides some upside with his legs. He stole 24 bases in roughly half a season of work last year, with two thefts already in 2024. He’s a solid salary-saver if you’re looking to pivot away from the high-priced outfielders on the slate.
