The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Robbie Ray ($8,200) San Francisco Giants (-200) vs. Oakland A’s
Robbie Ray is a little uncomfortable as a top pick today, as he’ll be making just his second start of the season. The flip side to that is he’s pretty heavily underpriced for his typical performance.
The last time he pitched a full season (2022), he finished with a 3.71 ERA and a 27% strikeout rate. Injuries have derailed most of the last two seasons, but he came back strong last week. Ray pitched five innings of one-run ball against the Dodgers, striking out eight along the way.
It’s another somewhat challenging matchup against the A’s, a top-10 team against lefties on the season. However, it’s certainly easier than the Dodgers, so Ray’s last start should inspire some confidence. There’s also the possibility he has a slightly longer leash as San Francisco stretched him out for a potential playoff run.
Vegas is clearly on his side tonight, with Oakland implied for a slate-low 3.4 runs. He leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs median projections, as well as the Pts/Sal projections, thanks to his price point.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Griffin Canning ($6,700) Los Angeles Angels (-135) vs. Colorado Rockies
Ray is the clear leader in Pts/Sal, but there are some cheaper options who aren’t too far behind. One of those is Canning, who has the benefit of a very strong matchup on Tuesday. Canning is taking on the Rockies, a bottom-five team in both wRC+ and strikeout rate against righties.
Crucially, the Angels are the home team for this matchup. Rostering pitchers against the Rockies is tricky when Colorado is hosting, owing to the huge boost to offense provided by Coors Field. Angels stadium gives a very slight boost to hitters, but still a big downgrade from Colorado.
Canning hasn’t been great this year, with an ERA over 5.00 and a sub-20% strikeout rate. However, he’s been better throughout his career, with a 4.32 ERA and 26% strikeout rate last season. The Rockies are a perfect get-right spot for Canning, and he’s worth taking the risk at a low price point and low projected ownership.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Brown ($9,000) Houston Astros (-191) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Both Hunter Brown and Tyler Glasnow ($10,000) have similar median and ownership projections today, but I strongly prefer Brown. The extra $1,000 in salary is a big reason why, but the matchup is an even bigger one.
Glasnow is taking on the Padres, who strike out at the lowest rate against righties and have a top-five wRC+. Brown draws the Pirates, who rank 29th in wRC+ and top 10 in strikeouts. While the implied totals for both offenses are similar, it’s clearly a better matchup for Brown.
Brown remains cheaper than he should be thanks to his dreadful start of the season, but he’s hit at least 18 DraftKings points in 10 of his last 11 starts. Five of those have topped 25, so he brings plenty of upside, too.
I like stacking Brown with Ray today, as they’re a high-upside combo that still leaves a reasonable amount of salary for hitters.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
The fairly affordable nature of this Royals stack is another reason why it’s possible to get to Brown and Ray as starting pitchers. The Royals aren’t exactly cheap, but they’re fairly accessible for a team with a 5.4-run total on the road.
Much of that total is driven by the matchup with the White Sox and Jonathan Cannon ($6,500). Cannon has a 4.43 ERA through ten starts, and it’s not like the Sox have much of a bullpen behind him. Their relief pitchers rank 28th in ERA as a team this season.
Plus, WeatherEdge has this game with decent conditions for hitters that should boost scoring by around 10%. All told, that’s enough to strongly consider some Royals today.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ketel Marte 2B ($5,500) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
I mentioned Marte in this space yesterday, and he paid off, going for 24 total points on three hits, including a home run. For some reason, he’s $100 cheaper today.
That’s surprising, as the case for Marte was his splits against lefties. He has another southpaw pitching matchup today, and it’s a juicy one against Patrick Corbin ($7,000). Marte’s splits are now even better than they were yesterday, thanks to his big day. Check them out in PlateIQ:
I don’t see any reason not to go back to the well tonight.
Anthony Rendon 3B ($3,600) Los Angeles Angels vs. Colorado Rockies (Cal Quantrill)
Rendon’s .227 batting average and zero home runs this season doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence. On the other hand, he was once an elite hitter and could potentially blame his struggles this season on injury.
At the very least, he’s a fairly cheap leadoff hitter in a lineup implied for just under five runs tonight. That can be enough sometimes — like when you’re trying to save salary and pay up elsewhere.
Randy Arozearena OF ($4,700) Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox (James Paxton)
One of the reasons Seattle acquired Arozearena is his ability to hit lefties. The new Mariner has a .903 OPS against southpaws this season, making him arguably their best bat against left-handed pitching.
They draw a hittable lefty tonight in James Paxton ($7,600), who’s making his Red Sox debut. Paxton had a 4.43 ERA with the Dodgers and gets a major downgrade in Park Factor by moving (back) to Fenway. That’s good news for Arozearena, who’s priced for his overall production, not his lefty splits.
