The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. Of note, nearly every game has at least some weather concerns, so be sure to keep an eye on the weather report.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Seth Lugo ($9,400) Kansas City Royals (-165) at Detroit Tigers
The top three pitchers on Thursday’s slate all have similar projections, with $1,000 in DraftKings salary between them. Fortunately, the format of this column allows for discussion on precisely three pitchers, so we’ll be able to touch on all of them.
The middle man in terms of salary is Lugo, and he also leads the FantasyLabs models in median projection — though less than a point separates them all in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT models. Lugo has been excellent this season with a 2.66 ERA, though his 21.8% strikeout rate limits his upside.
What doesn’t limit his upside is the matchup with Detroit. The Tigers rank 23rd in wRC+ against righties this season but are missing their best hitter in Riley Greene, and traded Mark Canha at the deadline. I’d bet they end up with a lower ranking by the time Greene makes it back to the lineup.
The Tigers’ 3.9-run implied total is the second lowest on the slate, so Lugo should have no problem in run prevention. The deciding factor will be if he lasts deep enough into the game to outscore the more dynamic options on the slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Charlie Morton ($8,800) Atlanta Braves (-205) vs. Miami Marlins
While it’s stretching the definition of a value pick a bit, Morton is the cheapest of the three top options on today’s slate. He also ranks second in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models in Pts/Sal projection, behind a different pitcher in each.
He has a similar profile to Lugo, with a 23.2% strikeout rate. His ERA is on the wrong side of four this season, but the opposing Marlins still have the lowest implied total on the slate. That’s because Miami — who already ranks 27th in wRC+ against righties — also sold almost all of their big-league-level bats at the trade deadline.
Morton is essentially facing a AAA team tonight, which does wonders for both his strikeout projection and his run prevention. Besides his excellent Pts/Sal outlook, he leads THE BAT in median and ceiling projections as well.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Shota Imanga ($9,600) Chicago Cubs (-115) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Imanaga is certainly the most exciting and expensive of the trio of arms I’m looking at today. His 24.9% strikeout rate isn’t elite, but it’s the best of the bunch. In addition, he continues to miss bats at a high rate, with a 14% swinging strike rate that would typically translate to about a 30% strikeout rate.
He’s taking on a Cardinals team that has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching this season, with an 82 wRC+ that ranks 28th in the league. Much of that was without starting catcher Willson Contreras ($5,100) who has excellent splits against southpaws, but his return takes them from “terrible” to “below average” on the whole.
The point is, it’s a plus matchup for the lefty Imanaga, with some debate over just how “plus” it is. With Imanaga bringing a 2.95 ERA into the game, any further bump to his outlook makes him a very strong option. Thanks to his higher salary, he’s also projecting for the lowest ownership projection of the top options today, which makes him stand out for GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
The Braves are Thursday’s only team to cross the five-run implied total mark, making them a fairly obvious stack. The price point makes it a bit difficult, averaging a bit over $4,800 per player, but not impossible to get to.
They’re hosting the torn-down Marlins and starter Max Meyer ($7,500), who has a 3.00 ERA but just 21 innings in the majors this season. It’s the second meeting between Meyer and the Braves, who hopefully have him figured out a bit more this time around.
Either way, they should be able to get some runs through at some point during this contest, and there are not a ton of strong options on the slate. They’re a bit overpriced in the contest of a larger player pool, but that’s not what we’re working with today.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
David Fry C ($4,500) Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles (Trevor Rogers)
Baltimore traded for former Marlins’ lefty Trevor Rogers ($7,100) at the trade deadline, a somewhat surprising move considering his mid-four ERA and underlying numbers. It could be a rough Orioles debut, given the Guardians’ top-10 splits against lefties this season.
Much of that is driven by Fry (and 3B Jose Ramirez $(6,000) as we can see in PlateIQ:
Fry’s numbers aren’t quite as good as Ramirez’s, but the $1,500 savings and positional scarcity at catcher make him my preferred one-off. This game also features excellent hitting weather, with WeatherEdge giving around a 20% boost to home runs and total scoring.
Jackson Holliday 2B ($3,000) Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians (Ben Lively)
Holliday had a miserable first stint in the majors earlier this season but looked better in his first game back yesterday. He hit his first MLB home run, a grand slam, accounting for four of the Orioles ten runs.
Obviously, that’s a minuscule sample size, but he was the best prospect in baseball coming into the season. If he can live up to that potential, he’s very underpriced at just $3,000. Plus, the favorable weather that applies to the Guardians is also at play here, too.
I’d prefer a better spot in the lineup — he’s projected to bat ninth — for Holliday, but we can’t be too picky at just $3,000
