The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Paul Skenes ($10,800) Pittsburgh Pirates (-135) at Houston Astros
Despite the tough matchup, Skenes is far and away the top pitching option on today’s slate. His stat line makes that easy to see why: Skenes has a 1.93 ERA and 34.2% strikeout rate through 12 starts. The former would lead the league if he qualified, while the latter is just 0.2% off from the top arm.
The Astros have a top-10 offense against right-handed pitchers, but Skenes is obviously a special case. Betting markets are clearly on the side of the rookie phenom, with Houston having a 3.6-run Vegas total and the Pirates installed as favorites. That’s notable, given the poor offense we typically get from Pittsburgh.
Skens is both expensive and will likely come in at the slate’s highest ownership. He’s also more than two full points clear in median projection in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models. I consider that “good chalk” and will look to cut ownership (and salary) elsewhere in GPPs today while locking in Skenes for cash.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Grant Holmes ($4,000) Atlanta Braves (-102) at Milwaukee Brewers
Atlanta is listing Holmes as the starter today against the Brewers, with his price point on DraftKings reflecting more of an opener role. However, if he were to get closer to a starter’s workload, he’d be a massive value in DFS.
It’s hard to say one way or another if that will be the case. Holmes’ last two relief appearances each went over three innings, and he made three starts in AAA this year. Neither of those means he’ll give us enough innings to qualify for a win, but he could pay off his salary with three solid innings.
It’s not hard to see him having success against this version of the Brewers, a theoretically top-10 offense against righties that’s missing their best hitter in Christian Yelich. Holmes has a 2.70 ERA and 23.6% strikeout rate through his first 23 innings of big league work.
He’s a solid SP2 in Skenes GPP lineups, thanks to his salary point and his minimal ownership projection.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Nick Pivetta ($8,500) Boston Red Sox (-120) vs. Seattle Mariners
Pivetta isn’t exactly a deep dive for GPPs, as his ownership projections have him second only to Skenes on Monday’s slate. In fact, the most popular pitching combination will likely be Skenes+Pivetta, with cheap bats to make the salary work.
However, Pivetta, with an option other than Skenes, should be fairly contrarian. While Pivetta’s upside trails the rookies considerably, at more than $2,000 cheaper, he could still be the better DFS play. Largely thanks to the matchup with Seattle, whose strikeout rate against righties is almost 3% higher than the second-worst team.
Pivetta also comes in with a very strong 29.5%strikeout rate of his own, making him a dark horse to lead the slate in strikeouts. He struggles a bit in run prevention with a 4.50 ERA — but his ERA indicators are all in the mid-threes. The regression case would be stronger away from Fenway — the second-best hitters park in baseball — but it’s there nonetheless.
Pivetta’s high-risk, high-reward profile makes him a stay-away for cash games, but he’s a solid GPP pivot from Skenes (or pairing option with Skenes).
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
The Cubs are in Cincinnati tonight, the best home run park in baseball. That helps explain their roughly five-run total tonight despite being a slightly below-average offense against righties.
The other factor is the matchup with Carson Spiers ($7,500). Spiers doesn’t have bad numbers, but he’s making his return from the IL for his first appearance in over two weeks. He likely won’t be at full effectiveness — or stamina — given the time off.
More importantly, given the expensive pitching options on the slate today, the Cubs’ top five hitters average just over $4,000 in salary. That makes it possible to fit both of the top pitchers into lineups today, which could be the key to taking down the slate.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ketel Marte 2B ($5,600) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals (Mitchell Parker)
Arizona’s five-run total is near tops on the slate, thanks in part to a solid pitching matchup against the Nats’ Mitchell Parker ($6,400). Parker has an ERA and ERA predictors over four, and he’s also a lefty — with Arizona hitting considerably better against southpaws.
Those splits are largely driven by Marte, who smashes left-handed pitching, as we can see in PlateIQ:
That makes him a solid one-off option, even if you don’t want to stack the Diamondbacks.
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B ($3,500) Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros (Jake Bloss)
Pittsburgh is another team with a solid pitching matchup tonight, as they travel to Houston to meet Jake Bloss ($6,600). Bloss has made three big league starts so far in his career — with an ERA just under 7.
I want some exposure to the Pirates hitters, especially in lineups featuring Skenes. Both for the correlation and the salary dynamics — Pittsburgh’s bats are cheap. Especially Hayes, who’s underpriced for his number three spot in their lineup.
Bobby Witt SS ($6,400) Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (Chris Flexen)
There’s never really a bad day to roster Witt. He’s second among all hitters in WAR to only Aaron Judge, with a .341 batting average, 18 home runs, and 20 steals through roughly 2/3 of the season.
Today might be an especially good day, though. Kansas City leads the slate with their implied total, and WeatherEdge has this one with elite hitting conditions. He’s pretty much impossible to fit around Skens/Pivetta lineups but it makes a ton of sense if rostering Holmes. He leads all hitters in median and ceiling projection by a solid margin.
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