The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 12:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Edward Cabrera ($9,700) Miami Marlins (-165) vs. Colorado Rockies
It’s close between the two pitchers at the top of today’s abbreviated slate, but given the discrepancy in ownership between the pair, Cabrera makes sense as the “Stud” pick of the day.
The biggest factor at play is the excellent matchup. The Rockies rank in the bottom three in baseball in overall offense, with a top-five strikeout rate. Just playing “pitcher against the Rockies” is typically a viable DFS strategy even without knowing who that pitcher is.
Fortunately, Cabrera’s numbers suggest he’s likely to take full advantage of the matchup. He has a 31.3% strikeout rate this season through three starts. While his ERA is an elevated 5.28, his expected ERA (xERA) is just 3.36, with some of his ERA indicators less than 3.00.
Unfortunately, the field is sharp enough these days to ignore the high ERA and focus on the underlying metrics, so we aren’t sneaking Cabrera past anyone. Still, he has the highest median and ceiling projections in THE BAT on the slate while coming in a close second in the FantasyLabs models.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Adrian Houser ($5,600) New York Mets (-115) vs. Chicago Cubs
Houser is the runaway leader in Pts/Sal projection in both systems today, largely thanks to his plummeting salary. In his first start of the season, he was priced at $7,500, making a change of nearly $2,000 on DraftKings.
Typically, falling salaries are a signal to roster a player in DFS. Broadly speaking, we expect players to return to their longer-term baseline, making them a value when recency bias knocks their salaries down. On the other hand, sometimes players simply got worse — which could be the case with Houser.
He’s almost certainly not as bad as his 8.37 ERA, but his underlying metrics are equally concerning — his xERA and SIERA are both over 6.00. The bull case is that most of those bad numbers came in starts against Atlanta and the Dodgers, and he’s been solid in his other starts.
That makes him a risk worth taking at his salary considering the matchup against the Mets. They’re a precisely-average offense based on wRC+ this season, with a moderate Vegas total of 4.4 runs. That’s nothing to get excited about on the Houser side, but we don’t need a big score at his price point.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Nathan Eovaldi ($9,100) Texas Rangers (-205) vs. Washington Nationals
Eovaldi is the 1B to Cabrera’s 1A today, with extremely similar projections. While it’s not impossible to roster the pair together, their salaries make it difficult, and most players will pick between the two of them along with a cheaper option today.
The big difference between them is the upside. Cabrera has a considerably better strikeout rate and a matchup with a more free swinging opponent. Washington’s strikeout rate is nearly 6% lower than Colorado’s, and they’re a better overall offense as well.
On the other hand, Eovaldi is due for some positive strikeout regression. He has a higher swinging strike rate than Cabrera at 14.6%, a mark that should translate to a 30%+ strikeout rate. Considering he’s $600 cheaper and projecting for slightly less ownership, it could pay off to bet on that regression hitting today.
I prefer Eovaldi for GPPs, but my favorite build is pairing the two of them together and saving salary on offense.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
Nearly half the teams on today’s abbreviated slate have implied totals within 0.1 runs of each other. However, a couple of those teams (specifically the Yankees and Rangers) have enough big names at the top of their lineup that stacks are considerably more expensive.
This is why Boston stands out today. Since betting markets are expecting roughly the same production, why pay up for it?
Especially considering the favorable conditions in Boston. Fenway Park has the best Park Factor score for hitters on the slate as well as a favorable Weather Rating.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ryan Mountcastle 1B ($4,900) Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees (Carlos Rodon)
It’s hard to come up with a comfortable projection for the Orioles today. So far this season they’ve been the second-best offense in baseball, with a 119 wRC+ as a team. However, they have a tough matchup against Carlos Rodon ($7,900) of the Yankees, and his 2.48 ERA.
However, projections are still using a blend of 2023 and 2024 stats, and Rodon was awful last season, with an ERA over six. The truth — and his ERA predictors — are probably somewhere in the middle, so he should settle into an ERA around 4.00 at some point.
That means he’s not a pitcher to avoid, but we want hitters with strong platoon splits against the lefty. I used PlateIQ to find the best ones I could:
Mountcastle is the obvious answer here, with much better numbers against southpaws like Rodon than the rest of his team.
Corey Seager SS ($5,500) Texas Rangers vs. Washington Nationals (Mitchell Parker)
The Rangers were shut out on Wednesday in what looked to be a great matchup on paper. Now they’re in a similar spot but with high salaries and some recency bias likely to keep ownership lower than it typically would be.
That makes this a good time to buy low on Texas (at least in terms of ownership) against a rookie pitcher. It’s especially important to build unique lineups on this smaller slate, and paying up for expensive players like Seager is one way to do so.
