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MLB DFS 5/15/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our new Vegas dashboard.)

Pitchers

Jose Fernandez, MIA

The Nationals don’t have too high of a strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, but their slugging percentage is below average. While there are cheaper options that could produce similar results, no one so much as sniffs Fernandez’s potential Upside today. His 11.8 SO/9 are 2.2 more than that of any other pitcher.

Kevin Gausman, BAL

A matchup against Detroit may seem terrifying, but only the Rays have exceeded the Tigers’ 26 percent strikeout rate over the last two weeks. Gausman has also received 71 percent of moneyline bets in Vegas today. The strikeout prowess has always been there, but he’s an even stronger option now that he’s a top-five pitcher (for the slate) in terms of batted-ball distance (per our advanced stats).

Pitchers to Exploit

Michael Fulmer, DET

Fulmer has allowed 1.8 home runs per nine innings in the past year, but his troubles don’t end there. He’ll also be forced to pitch around winds blowing out to right field at 18 miles per hour. With the highest exit velocity allowed among pitchers tonight, Fulmer has little going for him, despite his 9.6 SO/9.

Matt Wisler, ATL

Wisler has gone eight innings in back-to-back performances, but he still doesn’t do enough to warrant a spot in DFS lineups. His 1.28 HR/9 aren’t remarkably exploitable on the surface, but he has actually allowed 0.79 HR/9 more to left-handed (as opposed to right-handed) batters over the past year. That, as well as his slate-high batted-ball distance allowed, bodes well for lefties Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales, and Alex Gordon.

C

Brian McCann, NYY

McCann is an elite cash option, given his top-eight wOBA and ISO. Also, opposing pitcher Miguel Gonzalez has allowed 1.89 more HR/9 to lefties than righties in the past year.

Jason Castro, HOU

I highlighted Castro in yesterday’s Slate Breakdown, and there’s no reason not to do so again today, as not much has changed. Even in this slate he still has a top-four batted-ball distance and exit velocity. Additionally, the wind in Boston is blowing out to right field at 15 MPH, which clearly benefits all hard-hitting lefties.

1B

Pedro Alvarez, BAL

Chris Davis is obviously a safer option at first base, but he’ll also be rostered in a higher percentage of lineups. Also, Alvarez’s hard-hit rate over the last 15 days is actually 22 percentage points higher than Davis’. And, like Davis, Alvarez will benefit from the winds at Camden Yards. If he starts, Alvarez is the low-rostered option you want in tournaments.

Ryan Howard, PHI

Dan Straily has allowed an average batted-ball distance as of late, but his 1.23 HR/9 are still well above (or worse than) average. And no one is in a better position to exploit that today than Howard, whose batted-ball distance in the last week is 34 feet farther than anyone else’s at first base. Also, note his 97 MPH exit velocity in that span, which is tied for the highest at his position.

2B

Jose Altuve, HOU

Our Player Models show Altuve with negative wOBA and ISO Differentials, but he’s still arguably the top option at second base. Even at DK, where he has experienced a position-high +$1,100 Salary Change over the last month, he should be carried by his top-seven hard-hit percentage over the last two weeks. It helps that Sean O’Sullivan has a bottom-three HR/9 allowed (1.78).

3B

David Wright, NYM

It’s doubtful he plays the day after a night game, but Wright’s easily the strongest option at third base if he starts. First off, he is hitting the ball 53 feet farther than Donaldson is over the last 15 days. He has also hit the ball harder than Donaldson by eight percentage points over that span. And don’t worry about Tyler Chatwood’s tendency to produce dazzling results out of nowhere: Opponents have produced a .465 slugging differential against him at Coors Field.

Brandon Drury, ARI

In the last two weeks, Matt Cain has limited opposing batters to a hard-hit percentage 14 percent lower than his average over the last year. Even so, his 1.74 HR/9 in that span trail only Miguel Gonzalez, Michael Fulmer, and Sean O’Sullivan today. He can only be used at third base on DraftKings, but no matter. There are much stronger options and stacks in the outfield this afternoon, anyways.

SS

Manny Machado, BAL

Machado can be used as either a shortstop or third baseman at DK, but he provides more value as a middle infielder. His batted-ball distance, for instance, trails that of the leading shortstop (Zack Cozart) by only three feet, whereas eight players are hitting the ball farther at third base. He also leads all shortstops with 11 Pro Trends.

Marcus Semien, OAK

Semien’s batted-ball distance has been rather poor in the last 15 days, but his matchup and 98 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel make him an intriguing option. Note his .102/.106 wOBA and ISO Differentials. He also has the benefit of batting against Matt Moore, whose batted-ball distance allowed in the last 15 days is the highest among pitchers today.

OF

Curtis Granderson, NYM

Michael Conforto costs only slightly more across sites, but Granderson has hit the ball harder than Conforto by six percentage points over the last two weeks. He also matches Conforto in Pro Trends. Every Mets outfielder is a cash option today, but Granderson as the leadoff batter is the best of them.

Adam Jones, BAL

Jones’ recent success will likely make him a popular player tonight, but that shouldn’t diminish his value. He’s still entirely too cheap, with a 99 percent Bargain Rating at FD. Expected to bat No. 3 for the Orioles, Jones should receive enough opportunity at the top of the lineup to make him a near-mandatory option in cash games.

Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY

Seeing as he’s expected to return today, I wouldn’t wait to pounce on Ellsbury. Even with a negative wOBA Differential, he still leads all outfielders with 12 Pro Trends. Also, take note of the wind in New York, which is currently blowing out at 14 MPH. That, along with his 46 percent hard-hit rate, gives him a decent chance of pushing one over the fence.

Mike Trout, LAA

The odds of Trout recording a hard hit have suddenly eclipsed that of a coin flip, as his hard-hit rate in the last two weeks has surpassed 50 percent. That, as well as the fact that Felix Hernandez is on the mound, should give an advantage to the minority of DFSers willing to pay up for him today. Hernandez’s velocity has plummeted 1.4 MPH in the last two weeks — a decline that has historically led to a -2.09 Plus/Minus for pitchers (per our Trends tool). Trout should “help” Hernandez’s Plus/Minus for this game reach negative numbers.

Weather Watch

None to be concerned about today.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.

Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our new Vegas dashboard.)

Pitchers

Jose Fernandez, MIA

The Nationals don’t have too high of a strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, but their slugging percentage is below average. While there are cheaper options that could produce similar results, no one so much as sniffs Fernandez’s potential Upside today. His 11.8 SO/9 are 2.2 more than that of any other pitcher.

Kevin Gausman, BAL

A matchup against Detroit may seem terrifying, but only the Rays have exceeded the Tigers’ 26 percent strikeout rate over the last two weeks. Gausman has also received 71 percent of moneyline bets in Vegas today. The strikeout prowess has always been there, but he’s an even stronger option now that he’s a top-five pitcher (for the slate) in terms of batted-ball distance (per our advanced stats).

Pitchers to Exploit

Michael Fulmer, DET

Fulmer has allowed 1.8 home runs per nine innings in the past year, but his troubles don’t end there. He’ll also be forced to pitch around winds blowing out to right field at 18 miles per hour. With the highest exit velocity allowed among pitchers tonight, Fulmer has little going for him, despite his 9.6 SO/9.

Matt Wisler, ATL

Wisler has gone eight innings in back-to-back performances, but he still doesn’t do enough to warrant a spot in DFS lineups. His 1.28 HR/9 aren’t remarkably exploitable on the surface, but he has actually allowed 0.79 HR/9 more to left-handed (as opposed to right-handed) batters over the past year. That, as well as his slate-high batted-ball distance allowed, bodes well for lefties Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales, and Alex Gordon.

C

Brian McCann, NYY

McCann is an elite cash option, given his top-eight wOBA and ISO. Also, opposing pitcher Miguel Gonzalez has allowed 1.89 more HR/9 to lefties than righties in the past year.

Jason Castro, HOU

I highlighted Castro in yesterday’s Slate Breakdown, and there’s no reason not to do so again today, as not much has changed. Even in this slate he still has a top-four batted-ball distance and exit velocity. Additionally, the wind in Boston is blowing out to right field at 15 MPH, which clearly benefits all hard-hitting lefties.

1B

Pedro Alvarez, BAL

Chris Davis is obviously a safer option at first base, but he’ll also be rostered in a higher percentage of lineups. Also, Alvarez’s hard-hit rate over the last 15 days is actually 22 percentage points higher than Davis’. And, like Davis, Alvarez will benefit from the winds at Camden Yards. If he starts, Alvarez is the low-rostered option you want in tournaments.

Ryan Howard, PHI

Dan Straily has allowed an average batted-ball distance as of late, but his 1.23 HR/9 are still well above (or worse than) average. And no one is in a better position to exploit that today than Howard, whose batted-ball distance in the last week is 34 feet farther than anyone else’s at first base. Also, note his 97 MPH exit velocity in that span, which is tied for the highest at his position.

2B

Jose Altuve, HOU

Our Player Models show Altuve with negative wOBA and ISO Differentials, but he’s still arguably the top option at second base. Even at DK, where he has experienced a position-high +$1,100 Salary Change over the last month, he should be carried by his top-seven hard-hit percentage over the last two weeks. It helps that Sean O’Sullivan has a bottom-three HR/9 allowed (1.78).

3B

David Wright, NYM

It’s doubtful he plays the day after a night game, but Wright’s easily the strongest option at third base if he starts. First off, he is hitting the ball 53 feet farther than Donaldson is over the last 15 days. He has also hit the ball harder than Donaldson by eight percentage points over that span. And don’t worry about Tyler Chatwood’s tendency to produce dazzling results out of nowhere: Opponents have produced a .465 slugging differential against him at Coors Field.

Brandon Drury, ARI

In the last two weeks, Matt Cain has limited opposing batters to a hard-hit percentage 14 percent lower than his average over the last year. Even so, his 1.74 HR/9 in that span trail only Miguel Gonzalez, Michael Fulmer, and Sean O’Sullivan today. He can only be used at third base on DraftKings, but no matter. There are much stronger options and stacks in the outfield this afternoon, anyways.

SS

Manny Machado, BAL

Machado can be used as either a shortstop or third baseman at DK, but he provides more value as a middle infielder. His batted-ball distance, for instance, trails that of the leading shortstop (Zack Cozart) by only three feet, whereas eight players are hitting the ball farther at third base. He also leads all shortstops with 11 Pro Trends.

Marcus Semien, OAK

Semien’s batted-ball distance has been rather poor in the last 15 days, but his matchup and 98 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel make him an intriguing option. Note his .102/.106 wOBA and ISO Differentials. He also has the benefit of batting against Matt Moore, whose batted-ball distance allowed in the last 15 days is the highest among pitchers today.

OF

Curtis Granderson, NYM

Michael Conforto costs only slightly more across sites, but Granderson has hit the ball harder than Conforto by six percentage points over the last two weeks. He also matches Conforto in Pro Trends. Every Mets outfielder is a cash option today, but Granderson as the leadoff batter is the best of them.

Adam Jones, BAL

Jones’ recent success will likely make him a popular player tonight, but that shouldn’t diminish his value. He’s still entirely too cheap, with a 99 percent Bargain Rating at FD. Expected to bat No. 3 for the Orioles, Jones should receive enough opportunity at the top of the lineup to make him a near-mandatory option in cash games.

Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY

Seeing as he’s expected to return today, I wouldn’t wait to pounce on Ellsbury. Even with a negative wOBA Differential, he still leads all outfielders with 12 Pro Trends. Also, take note of the wind in New York, which is currently blowing out at 14 MPH. That, along with his 46 percent hard-hit rate, gives him a decent chance of pushing one over the fence.

Mike Trout, LAA

The odds of Trout recording a hard hit have suddenly eclipsed that of a coin flip, as his hard-hit rate in the last two weeks has surpassed 50 percent. That, as well as the fact that Felix Hernandez is on the mound, should give an advantage to the minority of DFSers willing to pay up for him today. Hernandez’s velocity has plummeted 1.4 MPH in the last two weeks — a decline that has historically led to a -2.09 Plus/Minus for pitchers (per our Trends tool). Trout should “help” Hernandez’s Plus/Minus for this game reach negative numbers.

Weather Watch

None to be concerned about today.

Good luck!

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No related posts.