DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for New Hampshire: Fantasy NASCAR DFS Strategy and Picks for the USA Today 301

The NASCAR Cup Series races at a shorter flat track for the second weekend in a row, this time at the 1-mile long New Hampshire Motor Speedway (NHMS).

Weather has been the theme of the weekend, with practice and qualifying getting rained out. There’s also weather in the forecast throughout race day Sunday, as well as into Monday. That makes it very possible the Cup Series runs on wet tires in damp conditions at some point this weekend, which throws things for a bit of a loop.

That said, it’s unlikely the whole race is run in damp conditions, so at some point things should settle out to traditional New Hampshire, but not after a bit of a possible shakeup.

Overall I’m mostly looking at track history, as well as short flat-track performance this year but especially recently, as last weekend’s race at Iowa was also run with the same tire combination that will be run at NHMS.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for the USA Today 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

New Hampshire DraftKings DFS Cash Game Strategy

Kyle Busch ($7700) is an immediate must-play when I look at this slate. With qualifying set by the metric after the rainout, Busch rolls off 30th, but he ranks inside the top five in my track-quality metric, which measures how far above or below NHMS is for each driver compared to his average track. That we’re getting him at his cheapest price point in a long time is also a boost.

The next question is do we roll with one of Christopher Bell ($11,000) or Martin Truex Jr. ($10,500), or perhaps both? I think given that we’re able to squeeze Kyle Busch in this week and build a solid six-driver cash lineup, it’s possible to afford the two best NHMS drivers in Bell and Truex in cash.

New Hampshire DraftKings DFS Tournament Strategy

While Bell and Truex are the two best drivers, we can’t just rely on them in a tournament portfolio as potential dominators. I really like Joey Logano ($9800) as a driver with upside this week, given how fast he has been at the end of races here in recent years. In 2021, Logano was the fastest car on track late in the race, finishing fourth after having come back from two laps down. And just last year, he was the fastest car on the last stint and finished second to Truex.

Given how good he and teammate Ryan Blaney have been at both Iowa and Gateway, and now heading to a track where Logano ranks fourth in my track-quality metric, I think this is a spot where we want to be a bit overweight on him.

Of the top 10 drivers in projected points per dollar, only Brad Keselowski ($9000) and Tyler Reddick ($8800) project to be under 20% owned. Reddick also projects to have one of the highest leverages when looking at the difference between his Perfect% and his projected usage. Keselowski ranks No. 1 in my track quality metric, while Reddick is 13th.

I will say, with one of the front-row starters likely to lead the early laps, and other laps at various points, plus with Bell and Truex looming not far behind, we should not be using all three of Logano, Keselowski and Reddick. These are just the three higher-priced pivots I like going a bit overweight on, but all three have a bit of negative correlation with each other.

The mid tier from about $7000 to $8500 is a bit weird this week. Busch is the obvious chalk. Buescher has struggled at New Hampshire. Chastain likely doesn’t have as much upside and starts a bit farther forward than some of the guys priced directly above him. Then there’s a quartet of drivers from Josh Berry down to Austin Cindric that progressively both decrease in salary and start farther back, giving more place differential potential. The sweet spot is likely the Bubba Wallace ($7500), Noah Gragson ($7300), and Chase Briscoe ($7200) range. My model projects Wallace as the most likely to end up optimal, but he’s also the one that is likely to be over-rostered.

Finally, Justin Haley ($6100) really helps with roster flexibility and has the best average finish between Iowa and Gateway, the two most recent flat tracks the series has run. He starts 24th, meaning there’s enough place-differential potential here to have a solid chance at ending up in the optimal lineup.